BUSINESS

The Iran conflict threatens to enter its third week as bombings, drone strikes, and a shutdown of critical shipping corridors and industry continue. And with no end in sight, the regional war’s global implications are starting to be measured in markets.In recent days, we’ve covered some of the more pressing market stories amid promises that the conflict will be over in “four to five weeks.” But as key shipping corridors and industry remain shut in the Middle East, investors are starting to position for a prolonged conflict in the region.As Iran war is declared “very complete,” it continues with asterisksGoldman Sachs resets oil price target for rest of 2026Iran’s shocking threat to boost oil to $200Is the Middle East conflict the start of an AI “black swan” event?The result so far has been higher energy prices — U.S. WTI Crude surpassed $97 on Friday — and rising worries about the possible impacts to global food security, manufacturing, and chipmaking if the conflict were to live past the five-week shelf life laid out by President Donald Trump. There’s also been repricing in stocks, which makes sense because geopolitical uncertainty and conflict are bad for business. To dig in, we took a look at the S&P 500 for a temperature check. The index’s top and bottom 20 stocks over the last month offer some generalizations about the happenings on the ground floor of the market.What’s up?Some of this might not come as a surprise, but stocks attached to industries ensnared in the Middle East conflict have seen the most marked increase in their stock over the last month.Fertilizer companiesFertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings has been the index’s best performing stock, up 34%. In a previous story, we covered how a sizable portion of ingredients found in nitrogen fertilizers are found in the Middle East. With shipping lanes still shut, fertilizer prices stand to skyrocket just before Spring plant. Another chemical company, LyondellBasell Industries NV (#6, +23%), is also rising in sympathy.Related: It’s not just rising oil prices you’ll have to worry about if Iran conflict continuesEnergy namesThen, there’s the oil companies. The index’s second best-performer, Texas Pacific Land Corporation, counts over half of its revenue from oil & gas revenues. It has jumped nearly 29% over the last months thanks to the pop in oil prices.The bump in energy prices is also helping the industry’s stocks, with the S&P Energy Sector rising over 6.5% over the past month. Occidental Petroleum Corp (#5), APA Corporation (#7), Valero Energy (#14), EOG Resources (#19), and EQT Corp (#20) fill out the majority of the list.But absent the Iran conflict, there are some other interesting stories making the rounds in the market, too.The odd ones outThe index’s third best-performer over the last month, Moderna, is the index’s best-performing stock this year, up 28.3%. For that, it can thank a change of heart at the U.S. government’s Food and Drug Administration, plus a positive letter on its new combination Covid-19 and flu vaccine.There’s also some other surprises:Coinbase (#4): +27% as digital assets have recovered; Bitcoin is back above $71,000Netflix (#10): +19% after walking away from Warner Bros. Discovery deal, leaving competitor Paramount Skydance to buy itWhat’s down?It’s great that there are winners, but what about the losers in the market? An easy answer would be firms affected by energy or chemical prices, but there are even more reverberations from the ongoing conflict, especially with respect to the give and get of inflation and interest rates.HomebuildingThat’s best exemplified by the index’s worst performer over the period: Builders Firstsource Inc., which is down nearly 31% over the last month. Supply chain disruption could mean higher prices, which would likely preclude the U.S. from seeing lower rates this year. That’s bad news for all homebuilders, including peers like Lennar (#17, -21.4%), which made the list as mortgage rates ticked up this week. Related: Iran war causes mortgage rate surgeHowever, it’s also bad for other stocks related to the homebuilding or home improvement beat. Industrial distributor Pool Corporation (#9, -24%), building materials company CRH Plc (#16, -22.2%), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (, -22.4%), and paint company PPG Industries all made the list.Travel brandsTravel companies, which are sensitive to the fast-rising price of oil, are a hallmark on the losing side of the market. The third worst-performer on the list is Carnival Corp, down 27.9% over the last month. It’s joined by airlines Southwest (#6, -25.2%) and United (#8, -24.3%).Private credit namesFinancials have been hammered amid worries of a “private credit contagion.” The index’s fourth worst performer over the last month is Ares Management (#4, -26.2%), which has declined as up to seven unique private credit funds have restricted or slowed withdrawals, leading to worries about the safety of these high-yield, higher-risk investments.Semiconductor namesSemiconductor names such as Microchip Technology (#10, -23%) and NXP Semiconductors (#11, -23.7%) also cropped up on the bottom 20 list. This could be related to business-specific factors, but it could also be due to a gradual recognition that chipmakers could find themselves embroiled in the Iran conflict if it isn’t quickly resolved:Related: The market finally sees energy and agriculture risk in Iran — why are they ignoring a possible “AI black swan?”The odd ones outPlummeting prices for containerboard, which is commonly used for shipping boxes or packaging, are also taking a number on International Paper (#7, -24.4%) and Smurfit WestRock plc (#20, -20.5%). The second worst-performer in the index this month is Genuine Parts Company, which is down over 29% after announcing plans to split itself in two different entities. This doesn’t appear to bear anything in common with the Iran conflict, but it could have something to do with conditions in the auto marketplace. A decline in shares of Brown-Forman also appears to be more related to a years-long waning in demand for spirits, as opposed to some connection with the ongoing crisis.

When luxury retail giant Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in January, it did not expect to have to close so many existing stores as part of the process. But as is typical in bankruptcy proceedings, restructuring is inevitable.And with it come both expected and delayed layoffs.More than 1,200 jobs are being cut at Saks Fifth Avenue locations across the U.S. as the luxury retailer prepares to close a dozen stores as part of its reorganization plan.According to multiple Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filings submitted in March, Saks & Company plans to close multiple stores in May, resulting in permanent job cuts.Saks bankruptcy sets stage for store closuresSaks Global, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy between Jan. 13 and 14, listing assets and liabilities of $1 billion to $10 billion. TheStreet’s Kirk O’Neil previously covered the Saks bankruptcy in “Missed payments send huge retailer into Chapter 11 bankruptcy.”More Layoffs:Walgreens widens job cuts amid store closuresUPS clears major legal hurdle amid job cutsLayoffs in January reach recession-era levelsO’Neil reported that the bankruptcy followed years of mounting debt and the inability to pay lenders, combined with liquidity constraints that prevented Saks from acquiring new inventory.Another major factor was Saks’ $2.7 billion acquisition of Neiman Marcus in 2024, which marked the beginning of a period of unsustainable capital expenditures and liquid holdings.

Several new Saks Fifth Avenue locations closed in March.anouchka/Getty Images

Luxury retail faces shifting consumer demandThis bankruptcy highlights a growing problem in the luxury sector, one where the retailers are grappling with a new reality: the rapid rise of resale.A McKinsey analysis projects that the global fashion industry “will once again post low single-digit growth in 2026.” The trend is driven by macroeconomic volatility, especially in the U.S., where consumer sentiment has been low this past year due to tariffs, uncertainty, and inflation.High prices pose a significant hurdle for aspirational customers of luxury items; thus, luxury executives continue to revamp product offerings, resetting after a sustained period of price-led growth.Amid this restructuring is an emerging resale market, forecast to grow “three times faster than the firsthand market through 2027.” This underlines a growing opportunity for the brands to build loyalty with “existing shoppers and drive purchases with aspirational shoppers looking for more accessible price points.” Fears that resale can “cannibalize” first-time purchases lack any data support, the research also highlights.A Deloitte Global Powers of Luxury 2026 report notes that technology and value creation will redefine luxury in the next five years. According to the research, executives rank artificial intelligence (31.7%) and innovation in materials and production (22.6%) as the most transformative forces shaping this future.Layoffs tied to Saks closuresOne of the largest workforce reductions for Saks in March will take place in Pottsville, Penn., where a Saks facility is expected to lay off 435 employees as the location shuts down.Several Saks Fifth Avenue stores across the country are also preparing to close, affecting dozens of workers in each market.Notices for these were issued on March 6, with separations expected to occur between May 6 and May 31, and the company has indicated that all closures are permanent.Saks noted three location closures in California this month, including stores in Canoga Park, Costa Mesa, and Palm Desert, affecting more than 230 workers combined.March Layoffs tied to Saks store closures total 1,226 and include:St Louis, Missouri: 65 Chevy Chase, Maryland: 75 Raleigh, North Carolina: 43Las Vegas, Nevada: 70Beachwood, Ohio: 70Sarasota, Florida: 66McLean, Virginia: 70Chicago, Illinois: 101Canoga Park, California: 97Palm Desert, California: 58Costa Mesa, California: 76Pottsville, Pennsylvania: 435You can see the list of operational stores here.The layoffs also come at a time when the broader U.S. labor market shows signs of strain.According to the recent Bureau of Labor Statistics February nonfarm payrolls report, 92,000 jobs were lost, with decreases in health care and information, and the federal government reporting a larger decrease than other sectors.The unemployment rate holds steady at 4.4%.Related: Retail layoffs hit 150-year-old food company’s Texas plant

If you have been checking your portfolio every morning this year, you already know the tension. The S&P 500 has gone practically nowhere; the biggest tech names have pulled back. Tariff headlines land daily, and the pressure to make a move keeps building.Most investors have overlooked a quieter story playing out alongside the volatility. One of the least-discussed Vanguard ETFs has posted one of the strongest starts to a year among the firm’s entire fund lineup. VYM is up approximately 5% year to date, per Dividend.com.The S&P 500, which many investors assume leads everything, has been essentially flat over the same stretch. An 8-point spread between a dividend ETF and the cap-weighted benchmark says something important about where institutional money has been flowing. The rotation driving that spread has implications for how you build and rebalance your portfolio over the rest of the year.VYM is beating the S&P 500, and the reason is structuralThe Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF tracks the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index, a broad collection of U.S. large-cap companies that pay above-average dividends while excluding REITs. As of early March 2026, VYM manages more than $84 billion in net assets, holds roughly 560 stocks, and charges just 0.04% in annual fees, according to Vanguard.The outperformance traces to a rotation happening underneath the index-level numbers. Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors have reached new all-time highs this year, according to U.S. Bank. But the cap-weighted index, dominated by mega-cap tech, has barely moved because its heaviest names stalled.VYM sidesteps that concentration problem entirely. Its heaviest allocations sit in financials, health care, industrials, and energy, all of which have led the market in early 2026. While the Magnificent 7 weighs on the S&P 500, VYM continues to climb because the fund is invested in the sectors that are actually advancing.562 dividend stocks and a 0.04% expense ratio under the hoodVYM does not chase the highest possible yield. The fund sweeps in the higher-yielding half of the large-cap dividend-paying universe and weights holdings by market capitalization. That construction tilts the portfolio toward bigger, more established companies and spreads single-stock risk across hundreds of names.Top VYM holdings as of January 2026:Broadcom (AVGO): 6.95% of assetsJPMorgan Chase (JPM): 3.63%ExxonMobil (XOM): 2.71%Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2.48%Walmart (WMT): 2.35%Broadcom adds a growth dimension through its expanding AI semiconductor business. JPMorgan and ExxonMobil benefit from the financials-and-energy rally. Johnson & Johnson and Walmart anchor the fund with defensive stability, according to holdings data from Robinhood.More Dividend stocks:Tim Cook quietly hands Apple investors a surprise pay raiseNancy Pelosi sells $1M of struggling dividend stockVerizon’s $20 billion acquisition resets dividend outlookMorningstar analyst Bryan Armour gave VYM a High Process Pillar rating in his November 2025 review. He wrote that the fund balances higher-yielding stocks against distressed yield traps and that its market-cap weighting pulls the portfolio toward larger, more stable firms, according to Morningstar. The fund currently yields about 2.5% with a trailing P/E near 20.3 and a five-year beta of 0.74, per Dividend.com.The 2026 growth-to-value rotation is playing directly into VYM’s handsA fund that has been around since 2006 does not suddenly land on performance leaderboards without a reason. Market leadership has shifted decisively from growth to value in 2026, and VYM is built for exactly this kind of environment.The numbers tell you where the money is goingBy mid-February, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was up about 5.5% year to date while the standard cap-weighted version sat roughly flat, according to NAI 500. That divergence means the average stock in the index has been performing well. The drag is coming almost entirely from the largest tech names retreating from elevated valuations.Three forces behind the shift:The Federal Reserve has cut the fed funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, making dividend stocks more competitive against bonds and money market funds, according to U.S. Bank.Tariff uncertainty and Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed institutional capital toward defensive, income-generating sectors.Midterm elections have historically brought elevated volatility, and dividend-paying stocks tend to hold up better during drawdowns.Midterm election years have historically punished stocksSince 1957, the S&P 500 has suffered an average intra-year drawdown of 18% during midterm election years and has entered correction territory about 70% of the time, according to Motley Fool analysis of FactSet data. Add tariff-driven trade friction on top of that historical pattern, and 2026 could deliver sharper swings than most investors expect.VYM’s lower sensitivity to broad market moves offers a cushion against that kind of volatility. The fund’s five-year beta of 0.74 means it typically absorbs only about 74% of the S&P 500’s swings. Its beta of 0.74, according to Morningstar, indicates a meaningfully lower sensitivity to market swings than the broader S&P 500. When the broad market drops 5% in a week, a VYM position would historically fall closer to 3.5% to 4%.Smaller drawdowns lead to faster recoveries, and collecting 2.5% in dividends annually while the market sorts itself out keeps the compounding math working in your favor through the rough stretches.VYM has real limits worth weighing before you commitVYM has clear trade-offs, and understanding them matters before you allocate serious capital to the fund.VYM trails the S&P 500 over long tech-led bull runsOver the past decade, VYM returned roughly 12.1% annualized, compared to about 15.6% for the S&P 500 Total Return Index, according to a Schwab ETF report card. When technology stocks lead, VYM will lag. You give up some upside in exchange for lower volatility and income.A 2.5% yield may fall short for income-focused investorsIf your primary goal is maximizing current income, funds like the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) deliver yields closer to 8%, though with capped upside potential. VYM emphasizes total return with a dividend component rather than maximum yield alone.Broadcom’s 7% weighting creates an unusual concentration riskBroadcom accounts for nearly 7% of the fund, a level that is unusually heavy for a diversified ETF. If Broadcom’s AI-driven rally reverses, VYM would absorb that decline more heavily than most dividend funds. Morningstar flagged this kind of sector deviation in its review, noting that VYM’s yield screen can concentrate in unexpected areas during market extremes.How to position VYM in your portfolio right nowVYM works best as a core anchor rather than a satellite holding. It generates income, reduces overall portfolio volatility, and frees up room to take more concentrated positions elsewhere with individual stocks or growth ETFs.Four things to evaluate before buying:Check your existing holdings for overlap: VYM shares significant common ground with the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and similar large-cap value funds. Stacking both gives you concentration, not diversification.Think about your account type: VYM distributes taxable dividends every quarter. Holding the fund inside a Roth IRA or 401(k) eliminates that tax drag and lets your dividends compound untouched.Be prepared for VYM to lag if tech rebounds: When the Magnificent 7 regain momentum, cap-weighted indices will pull ahead again. VYM is a play on broad market participation, not growth leadership.Consider dollar-cost averaging during volatile stretches: Buying when VYM dips means your purchase price is lower, and each dollar you invest generates more dividend income going forward.Steady compounding is winning in 2026, and VYM is built for itVYM will never double in a year, and it will never generate the kind of excitement that drives viral stock picks. The fund has, however, compounded at roughly 9.3% annually since its 2006 launch, paid investors every quarter, and held its ground during periods when growth stocks fell apart, according to Motley Fool reporting.With 562 holdings, a 0.04% expense ratio, and exposure to the sectors leading this year’s rotation, VYM has earned its place as a core portfolio building block. If 2026 continues to reward value, income, and defensive positioning, this is where you want a meaningful portion of your money working.And even if the rotation stalls, VYM pays you 2.5% annually while you wait. For most investors, that kind of consistency matters more than any single blockbuster quarter.Related: JPMorgan delivers a stark message for investors in stocks