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Oil prices have surged. Stock markets have sold off. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows, has effectively stalled as the threat of attacks deterred vessels from passing through. The U.S.-Iran conflict has rattled markets in ways that feel impossible to ignore.But Bank of America has a more measured take. In a research note, BofA analyst Meghan Swiber said the firm’s baseline outlook for the U.S. economy has not materially changed. The risks, she argues, are real but contained — unless one specific thing happens.That one thing is an oil price spike. And understanding exactly what Swiber means by that could entirely change how investors view this conflict.What Bank of America actually said about oil and the U.S. economySwiber’s message to clients was direct. “U.S. macro risks are likely limited unless there is a pronounced oil spike,” she wrote, according to Investing.com. The main near-term impact, she added, would be on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, not on the broader economic expansion itself.That is a notably calm assessment, given the scale of what is happening. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering Iranian retaliatory missile strikes on Gulf countries hosting US forces. Brent crude surged 10% to 13% within days, briefly pushing above $82 per barrel. Markets priced in fear fast.More Oil and Gas:Energy giant sends blunt $20 billion message on dividend growth147-year-old oil giant just raised dividend 4% in 2026Top energy stocks to buy amid Venezuela chaosBank of America is not dismissing that fear. It is putting it in context. The U.S. has significant domestic energy production, buffering the immediate shock. Saudi Arabia holds meaningful spare capacity. And the bank’s own analysis suggests that the conflict, unless it escalates dramatically, is unlikely to derail the economic cycle on its own.Oil is the only transmission channel that mattersThe reason Bank of America focuses so sharply on oil prices is straightforward. Oil is the primary mechanism through which a Middle East conflict reaches the U.S. economy.Bank of America’s own rule of thumb makes the math concrete. A $10 crude increase pushes personal consumption expenditures inflation up by roughly 0.1 percentage points and trims GDP growth by a similar amount. At current price levels, that is manageable. The concern is what happens if prices climb significantly higher and stay there, CNBC noted.A prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure is the scenario that changes the calculus entirely. Global energy analysts estimate a worst-case disruption could push Brent crude above $100 per barrel. At that level, the inflation impact becomes harder for the Fed to look through, and the growth drag becomes more difficult to absorb.How an oil spike transmits into the U.S. economy:Higher crude prices push up gasoline and energy costs for consumers, effectively acting as a tax on household spending and reducing disposable income.Every $10 increase in crude prices adds roughly 0.1 percentage points to PCE inflation and shaves a similar amount from GDP growth, according to Bank of America’s analysis.Sustained high oil prices complicate the Fed’s ability to cut rates, forcing policymakers to hold tighter for longer even as growth slows.Energy cost uncertainty freezes corporate capital expenditure decisions, particularly in logistics, manufacturing, and transportation-heavy industries.What this means for the Federal ReserveBefore the conflict escalated, markets were pricing in a clear path toward Federal Reserve rate cuts. That path has now become murkier.Swiber said the Fed will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach as policymakers assess whether higher oil prices translate into broader inflation or slower growth. That is a delicate position. If oil drives inflation higher while the conflict simultaneously weighs on consumer confidence and growth, the Fed faces a stagflationary squeeze it cannot easily escape with rate cuts.

The Fed will be watching whether higher oil prices translate into broader inflation or slower growth.Photo by seksan Mongkhonkhamsao on Getty Images

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen captured the bind clearly. “The Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they were before this happened,” she said. U.S. inflation was already running at 2.4% in January, above the Fed’s 2% target, before oil prices moved higher.The price scenarios energy-sector investors need to understandBank of America’s base case is that the conflict will be relatively contained, since U.S. domestic energy production provides a meaningful buffer. The political incentive for the Trump administration to avoid a sustained oil price spike is real. Prolonged high gasoline prices would weigh on the president’s approval ratings heading into midterm elections.Oxford Economics takes a similarly measured view, arguing that the oil market is well placed to manage the impact from Iran and that the conflict is unlikely to last beyond two months. It recommends selling any extreme moves in oil, energy stocks, gold, and defense names, on the view that those spikes will fade as the conflict does not escalate into a prolonged regional war.The two scenarios shaping the market outlook:Base case: The Strait of Hormuz disruption is short-lived, Saudi spare capacity absorbs supply losses, oil prices stabilize, and the Fed holds rates steady before resuming its cutting path later in the year.Adverse case: The conflict escalates into a prolonged regional war, the Strait closure extends for weeks or months, Brent crude pushes above $100, inflation reaccelerates, and the Fed finds itself unable to make cuts, even as growth weakens.Bank of America says investors should watch oil pricesThe signal Bank of America is telling investors to track is not the military headlines: It is the oil price. As long as crude stays in a range the economy can absorb, the bank’s baseline outlook holds. If prices spike sharply and stay elevated, the economic math changes in ways that matter for every asset class.For now, the bank’s message is one of cautious steadiness. The U.S. economy entered this conflict from a position of relative strength. Consumer spending is holding. Corporate earnings have been beating estimates. The labor market, while softening at the margins, has not cracked.None of that means investors can ignore what is happening. It means watching the right variable. Bank of America has made its view clear. The war itself is not the risk — the oil price is.Related: Bank of America names the U.S. auto stocks to own

Motivational speaker and bestselling finance author Tony Robbins minces no words when he warns Americans about their retirement future.But, importantly, he also offers a goal to achieve the happiness later in life that people dream about.First, Robbins sets expectations about what Americans should anticipate from Social Security.Related: AARP sounds alarm for American workers on 401(k)s, IRAsFailing to map out retirement finances — and assuming Social Security alone will cover the lifestyle people want — is a pair of missteps Robbins urges Americans to avoid.“Time to get your head out of the sand and do some easy number crunching to find out where you are and where you need to be,” Robbins wrote. “Remember this: Anticipation is the ultimate power. Losers react; leaders anticipate.”“Social Security was never intended to become a replacement for retirement savings, especially considering the extended length of retirement we can anticipate with longer lifespans,” he added.Tony Robbins explains thinking big on retirement dreamsOne important consideration I have given a lot of thought to when writing about how high-profile personalities talk about people’s retirement aspirations is whether they are discussing just getting by, or thinking big.Robbins thinks big — and believes you should, too.More on personal finance:Zillow forecasts big mortgage change for U.S. housing marketAARP sounds alarm on major Social Security problemDave Ramsey bluntly warns Americans on 401(k)sRobbins notes that there are multiple ways to frame the question of how much money someone needs for retirement, and he even introduces a concept he calls the “ultimate retirement dream” to help people think beyond basic budgeting and toward what they truly want their later years to look like.Robbins outlines a plan for financial freedomDetermine the annual cost of maintaining your present lifestyle. Focus on what you actually spend, not what you earn. If your spending exceeds your income, use the higher figure — while also recognizing the need to correct that imbalance. If you’re unsure of your true spending level, begin tracking it now; doing so will also reveal areas where you can cut back and redirect more money toward retirement.Take that annual spending figure and multiply it by 20. This provides a broad estimate of the total savings needed to sustain your lifestyle throughout retirement.Use cautious assumptions rather than optimistic ones. Some planners suggest multiplying income by 10 or 15, but today’s lower returns on safer investments make a 5% return assumption more prudent. Ten times income assumes a 10% return; twenty times income assumes a 5% return.Map out how you’ll reach your target savings. Consider the returns you can reasonably pursue given your remaining working years, and evaluate your asset allocation and retirement accounts. Explore strategies that can accelerate progress toward your financial goals.(Source:Tony Robbins)

Tony Robbins urges people to think big about their retirement dreams.Shutterstock

Key Medicare considerationsHealth care is a major concern for Americans as they age and transition to retirement.Medicare enrollment revolves around a few key windows that determine when you can sign up without penalties and how smoothly your coverage begins. The program itself is the federal health insurance system for people 65 and older, along with younger individuals who qualify because of a disability, End‑Stage Renal Disease, or ALS, according to USA.gov.Medicare enrollment key notesInitial Enrollment Period (IEP): Your first opportunity to enroll is the Initial Enrollment Period, a seven‑month window that starts three months before the month you turn 65, includes your birthday month, and continues for three months afterward. Signing up during this time ensures you avoid late enrollment penalties and prevents gaps in coverage. Most people enroll in both Part A (hospital insurance) and Part B (medical insurance) during this period. (Source:Social Security Administration)Special Enrollment Period (SEP): If you delay Part B because you have qualifying employer coverage, you can sign up later during a Special Enrollment Period without penalty. This period lasts for eight months after your employment or employer coverage ends. SEPs help people transition from workplace insurance to Medicare without financial consequences. (Source:Social Security Administration)General Enrollment Period (GEP): If you miss your IEP and don’t qualify for a SEP, you can enroll during the General Enrollment Period, which runs from January 1 to March 31 each year. Coverage begins later in the year, and you may face permanent late enrollment penalties for Part B.Why timing matters: Enrollment timing affects not only when your coverage starts but also how much you pay over your lifetime. Understanding your eligibility, your current insurance, and how Medicare interacts with employer plans helps you make a confident, penalty‑free transition into coverage.Related: Jean Chatzky sends blunt message to Americans on 401(k)s, IRAs

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealI find it refreshing to change out all the bedding in my home for a new season. In the fall, I opt for jewel tones for a rich, dark academia-inspired look. Spring and summer are all about lighter-weight options and airy prints like boho patterns and florals. Bedding trends for 2026 are all about personality and texture layering, and so I’m thinking about trying some new things this year. As someone who shops for a living, one set I’ve been eyeing is Macy’sSeventh Studio Jambo 3-Piece Quilt Set. It retails for $60, but it’s on sale for just $27, taking 55% off the original price. I love the weight of a quilt at this time of year, and I think this set will be ideal for the warmer temperatures. Plus, it has reversible options, too. Seventh Studio Jambo 3-Piece Quilt Set, $27 (was $60) at Macy’s

Courtesy of Ma

Why do shoppers love it?I’ve tested many different bedding sets in my time as an avid online shopper, so I can tell this set is going to be very versatile. Thanks to its boho aesthetic, it will pair with a wide variety of sheet colors like white, cream, and navy. But if you want to lean into the trend of dialing up your bedroom’s personality, you could opt for a stronger contrast with a color like yellow, which is featured prominently in the comforter’s design. If you end up wanting a simpler look, just flip it to the solid blue side.This quilt set is made of 100% polyester microfiber and has a polyester fill. Polyester is a hardy fabric that’s highly resistant to wrinkling, so you can toss this set in the wash and know it’ll come out looking great. Unlike cotton, you can wash polyester in warm water, and it won’t shrink, so there’s no need to wash it separately from other laundry. These little things make life a lot easier!Details to knowColors: Navy.Material: The shell is 100% polyester microfiber, and the fill is 100% polyester.Sizes: Twin, full/queen, and king.Related: Walmart’s bestselling T-shirts are on sale starting at $3, and they come in 26 colorsTo lean into the 2026 bedding trends, tie in some more texture with this set. We suggest a subtle look like this Zigzag Throw in golden yellow. There’s nothing quite like piling on the pillows when it comes to making a bed look luxurious. The Sorena Pillows in Navy have just the right look to tie into the boho theme, although we do apologize for making it harder for you to get out of your own fabulous bed.Shop more deals Greenland Home Fashions Topanga 3-Piece Quilt Set, $153 (was $340) at Macy’sIntelligent Design Vinnie 6-Piece Comforter Set, $56 (was $110) at Macy’sLevtex Amelie Boho 2-Piece Quilt Set, $124 (was $290) at Macy’sAt just $27, the Seventh Studio Jambo 3-Piece Quilt Set is an affordable pick that offers a lot of versatility, and it’s easy to care for. But it probably won’t be in stock for long at a price this low, so if you want it, don’t wait.

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealAs a daily tablet user, I’ve found there’s no better electronic for entertainment in my downtime. The spacious tablet screen is easier to navigate than my iPhone, while the slim design is better for lounging on the couch compared to my bulky laptop. Whether killing time with mobile games, reading a new digital book series, browsing home decor ideas on Pinterest, or streaming a new show on Netflix, the tablet is my go-to device for online activities that don’t require a keyboard. By also adding a keyboard to a tablet, you can essentially turn it into a mini laptop, providing even more functionality. These 2-in-1 tablets can cost a pretty penny, but one budget-friendly selection, the Zzb 2-in-1 Android Tablet and Keyboard, is available for just $60 at Amazon. Any tablet priced at $60 is an unbelievable bargain, and this one is all the more impressive because it also comes with a Bluetooth keyboard, wireless mouse, stylus pen, and protective case. On top of that, these accessories come in multiple colorways to show off your personal style, including light blue, gray, navy, or pink.Zzb 2-in-1 Android Tablet and Keyboard, $60 at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

Why do shoppers love it?This affordable tablet is “fast, reliable, and easy to use,” according to one shopper. The device uses a quad-core processor for efficient performance, and it is further optimized with 8 gigabytes (GB) of RAM and 32 GB of ROM. While this budget-friendly tablet wasn’t built for constant multitasking or managing hefty data files, it has ample storage and memory to smoothly run everyday tasks, like surfing the web or scrolling through Facebook. One shopper who bought this tablet for her child wrote about their experience, saying, “She’s been able to download a bunch of games, watch YouTube, and play Roblox nonstop.”Related: Amazon is selling a pair of noise-canceling wireless earbuds for just $20 that have up to nine hours of playtimeRunning on the Android 15 operating system, this tablet is user-friendly and doesn’t require learning new software. You’ll also have access to countless popular applications, like Gmail, Hulu, and Zoom. If you do want to use this for work or school, it comes with both a front and rear-facing camera so you can participate in video calls directly from your device. Additionally, the long-lasting battery, which runs up to 10 hours on a single charge, means you don’t have to worry about running out of power during class or at the coffee shop. Once you’re ready to head back home, its lightweight design, weighing just 1 pound, is easy to slip into a backpack or tote bag.Details to know Screen size: 10.1 inches.Operating system: Android 15.Is the keyboard removable?: Yes.It’s rare for me to showcase products without a markdown, but this is an outstanding deal even without a discount. Any tablet priced under $75 is an unusual find, and this one has an even better value since it comes with all the accessories you could need. If this one isn’t quite right for you, check out some other tablet deals at Amazon below.Shop more dealsCoopers Android 15 10-Inch Tablet, $68 (was $77) at AmazonRaemond 10-Inch Android 15 Tablet and Keyboard, $85 (was $140) at AmazonAobante 10-Inch Android 15 Tablet, $76 (was $85) at AmazonIf you’ve been wanting to try out a tablet for yourself, the Zzb 2-in-1 Android Tablet and Keyboard is a superb choice for just $60 at Amazon, especially since it comes with so many extras.