The Street

Bank of America watches about 38.7 million checking accounts.That’s not a marketing number. It’s the size of the window the bank has into how ordinary Americans are actually spending their money, week by week. When Brian Moynihan speaks about the consumer, that’s the data he’s pulling from, and right now that data is telling a complicated story.On July 14, Bank of America reported second-quarter net income of $9.1 billion, up 27% from a year ago. Earnings per share jumped 34%. BAC stock rose 2% in morning trading.And on the post-earnings call, Moynihan described an economy that was holding up better than expected even as BofA’s own research team is tracking inflation near its highest level since 2023.What Bank of America says about the U.S. economy right now”The U.S. economy has proved more durable than expected, supported by the strong consumer, ongoing AI-driven investments across the board, and easing energy costs,” Moynihan said on the call, according to Yahoo Finance. “Though inflation and tighter monetary policy remain key risks.”He wasn’t claiming everything is fine. He was saying the economy has absorbed more pressure than most people expected without breaking. Related: Bank of America warns America now has 2 economiesThat’s meaningful context when gas prices have been elevated from the ongoing Iran conflict and investors are still trying to figure out whether consumer spending can hold up in the second half of the year. Ahead of the earnings call, BofA’s research team raised its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, and expects global growth at 3.2% this year before rising to 3.5% in 2027, CNBC reported.The inflation problem that a durable economy makes harderHere’s the tension in BofA’s own research. A resilient consumer is good news for growth. It’s also why inflation won’t come down quickly. When people keep spending, prices stay up. And when prices stay up, the Fed keeps rates high. BofA has made this connection explicit: The combination of resilient consumer spending and elevated energy costs is exactly what’s keeping its Fed outlook hawkish, as TheStreet reported.June’s CPI print came in cooler than expected, with core CPI close to flat month over month. But BofA’s research team noted the soft number mostly just reversed an increase driven by oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. On a trend basis, inflation hasn’t moved much.

Despite the inflation backdrop, the actual spending numbers have stayed strong.Spencer/Getty Images

The Bank of America consumer data behind the economy outlookDespite the inflation backdrop, the actual spending numbers have stayed strong. Consumer spending grew about 5% year over year in the first half of 2026, then picked up in Q2 to run at 6% or more on a year-over-year basis. Moynihan said spending was even higher in June and July, which extends the positive read into the current quarter.The bank’s consumer division generated nearly $3.3 billion in second-quarter profit. BofA’s 39 million checking accounts give it visibility into spending patterns across income levels and geographies that most economic surveys can’t match. When Moynihan says the consumer is holding up, he’s reading transaction data, not sentiment.More Economy:JPMorgan doubles down on economy, inflation outlookCentral bankers grow nervous about AI fundingBofA sees new trends forming in the K-shaped economyCommercial lending was also broader than the AI buildout alone. CFO Alastair Borthwick said growth came from business banking, commercial banking, and corporate banking alike. That breadth is a better signal than capex spending concentrated in a few tech companies.That same resilience is what makes inflation hard to resolve. Consumers who keep spending keep prices up. Businesses that keep borrowing keep demand elevated. Moynihan said it plainly near the end of the call: “It’s a very good environment. Investors are invested.” He’s right, and he also knows a good spending environment is a hard one for the Fed to justify cutting rates in.What BofA’s inflation outlook means for rates and the rest of 2026The Fed picture that emerges from BofA’s research is not a friendly one for borrowers. The bank’s economists are calling for 75 basis points of rate hikes over the next 12 months, nearly double what markets are currently pricing, as TheStreet reported. Their core PCE tracking at 3.3% year over year is part of the reason behind this projection. That number is close to the highest reading since 2023, and it hasn’t moved meaningfully even as headline inflation has fluctuated with oil prices.BofA expects yields to stay elevated through the second half of 2026. The Iran conflict is a big part of why. Higher oil costs filter into transport, manufacturing, and food prices, and they keep showing up in the inflation data even when a single monthly print looks soft. The underlying trend hasn’t shifted.Foreign investors are absorbing some of that pressure. They bought $55.8 billion in U.S. corporate bonds in May, up from $49.4 billion in April, and $91.9 billion in Treasuries in the same month, according to Treasury International Capital data shared with TheStreet. That overseas demand helps keep spreads in check even as the Fed stays hawkish. For now, it’s holding.Whether it keeps holding as the rate path gets clearer is one of the more important questions for the second half of the year.Related: JPMorgan sends blunt verdict on oil, economy

The most dangerous moment for a stock is rarely when the skeptics pile on. It is when the last true believer quietly heads for the door.Wall Street runs on a simple hierarchy. There are the analysts who never liked a company, the ones who flip with the wind, and the rare few who plant a flag and defend it through every rough quarter. That last group carries real weight, because when a stock stumbles, investors want to know whether the people who studied it most closely still buy the story. A skeptic turning bearish is noise. A champion walking away is a signal.For most of 2026, International Business Machines (IBM) had exactly that kind of champion in its corner, an analyst who kept telling clients the bears had the math wrong. Then IBM posted the worst trading day in its history, and by the next morning, that champion, Oppenheimer, had folded.On July 14, IBM stock cratered 25.21% to close at $217.07, erasing roughly $68 billion in market value in a single session. A day later, Oppenheimer stripped away the bullish rating and price target it had defended all year, according to CNBC.

IBM suffered its worst single-day stock drop in company history on July 14.Bloomberg / Getty Images

Why IBM stock cratered on July 14IBM did not wait for its scheduled earnings date to break the news. Eight days before its July 22 conference call, chief executive Arvind Krishna sent investors an unscheduled letter warning that the second quarter had gone badly. “What played out was worse than our expectations,” Krishna wrote of the disappointing period, according to Forbes.The numbers explained the panic only partly. Preliminary second-quarter revenue landed at $17.2 billion, roughly $660 million under the $17.85 billion analysts expected, according to Seeking Alpha. Operating earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.93, missing the $3.01 estimate by eight cents.More Wall Street:Wall Street’s $200 billion IPO wave threatens sell-offJ.P. Morgan unleashes $50 billion buyback after stress testBessent doubles down on Main Street over Wall StreetA 3.7% revenue miss does not usually erase a quarter of a company’s value. This one did. The close marked IBM’s steepest single-day drop on record, undercutting even the 23.7% collapse it logged on Black Monday in October 1987.Krishna pointed to two problems. Several large deals slipped past the end of the quarter rather than closing, and in late June, clients abruptly redirected budgets toward artificial intelligence (AI) hardware, buying servers, storage, and memory instead of the software and mainframe products that carry IBM’s fatter margins.There was also a mainframe hangover. IBM was lapping the launch of its z17 system, and the Transaction Processing software tied to that cycle came in soft, deepening the miss.That middle problem is the one that should worry shareholders. A deal that slips can close next quarter. A structural change in how companies spend does not reverse on a schedule.Related: IBM’s latest Wall Street call hides bigger shiftOppenheimer walked back its biggest IBM callHere is where my analysis kept snagging. For most of the year, Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh had been IBM’s loudest defender on the Street, arguing its software pivot was underappreciated and that bearish revenue estimates were simply too low. As recently as this spring, he was telling clients the bears had IBM’s math wrong, according to Barron’s. When I lined those earlier notes up against the one Oppenheimer published this week, the reversal was hard to miss.That kind of about-face rarely happens in isolation, and the wider tape has been jumpy about exactly this question of whether AI spending helps or hollows out the old guard.Oppenheimer downgraded IBM to perform from outperform and dropped the price target it had carried all year, according to CNBC. The bank warned that the shortfall could threaten IBM’s full-year financial goals, a slip that could drive shares lower still.Singh’s reasoning centered on software, the exact engine his bull case had run on. Software revenue grew just 5% in the quarter, well below the 12% Oppenheimer had modeled, according to Investing.com. Without large acquisitions or a wave of delayed deals finally closing, the firm now doubts IBM can reach double-digit software growth in 2026 or 2027. Singh told clients the stock would likely stay “range-bound near term.”The rest of Wall Street split hard, which is the tell that this is a story about confidence, not just one weak quarter.HSBC cut IBM to reduce and slashed its target to $191, arguing investors could replicate IBM’s exposure more cheaply by buying a basket of its rivals, according to Investing.com.Morgan Stanley moved the other way, lifting its target to $293 from $267 while holding an equal weight rating, according to TheStreet.Oppenheimer landed in between, neutral rather than negative, scrapping its $350 target while still flagging bright spots like Red Hat and HashiCorp, according to CNBC.When the bulls, the bears, and the fence-sitters cannot agree on what a 25% crash means, the market has not finished pricing the news.What IBM has to prove on July 22For everyday investors, IBM has long worn the costume of a safe stock. It is a century-old blue chip that has raised its dividend for 30 straight years, the kind of name that anchors retirement accounts precisely because it is supposed to be boring. A one-day crash of this size punctures that reputation, and it does so for a lot of people who never think of themselves as tech speculators.That is the real stake here. This was not a meme stock or an unprofitable startup. It was a holding millions of ordinary savers treat as ballast, and on July 14 that ballast dropped a quarter of its value before lunch.The July 22 earnings call now has to answer one question. Were those slipped deals merely late, or were they lost? If Krishna can show the revenue landing in the third quarter and reaffirm full-year guidance, July 14’s crash looks like an overreaction to a timing hiccup. If he cannot, the budget shift toward AI hardware starts to look less like a quarter and more like a trend, one that squeezes every legacy software vendor selling into the same shrinking IT budgets.I have watched enough of these pre-announcements to know they rarely resolve cleanly in a week. The stock that just had the worst day of its life will spend the next several sessions trading on a single guess: whether the most patient bull on Wall Street gave up one quarter too early, or right on time.Related: Jim Cramer shares strong verdict on IBM stock for investors

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealSummer is finally here, and it’s truly exciting to think about spending more time outdoors after a long, cold winter. If you’re excited as we are about the changing of the seasons, you may be thinking about how to best furnish your outdoor space so you can get the most out of it. Macy’s has an astounding deal on the Gaomon Three-Seat Porch Swing With Sunshade that just might help, and you’ll save $2,754, too.This roomy swing seats three people and has an adjustable sunshade, so you can keep the sun’s glare out of your eyes even when it’s setting. It’s perfect for a front or a back porch, a deck, or even a sunroom. At 90% off, it’s one of the best outdoor furniture deals we’ve seen so far this season. Gaomon Three-Seat Porch Swing With Sunshade, $306 (was $3,060) at Macy’s

Courtesy of Macy’s

Shop at Macy’sWhy is it worth buying?While patio sets are often the choice pick when it comes to furnishing a patio, don’t sleep on the classic patio swing (until you get it, that is, and then take all the naps on it you like). This swing has a thick triangular frame made of steel that’s fitted with spring hooks, so you can count on it to keep going strong through many backyard barbecues and pool parties. Measuring 74.8 inches long, 45.7 inches deep, and 64.6 inches high and capable of holding up to 772 pounds, it’s also roomy, so you can accommodate several guests with ease. And its non-slip foot pads ensure that the swing stays in place while you rock back and forth.This swing comes with a set of waterproof back and seat cushions that are 3.7 inches thick. These can be removed if you prefer. One perk of this swing is that it comes with folding trays attached to each side. When folded up, you’ll have two cupholders at your disposal, as well as a rectangular recessed tray that would be perfect for your phone. With your drink of choice and your phone at arm’s length, you can comfortably swing the afternoon away in the sunshine.Another cool feature this swing offers is the adjustable canopy. With the twist of a knob, you can adjust it up to 60 degrees. And since it’s UV-resistant, waterproof, and fade-proof, you won’t have to be concerned with getting wet while you’re sitting on the swing. It’ll also retain its color year after year.Pros and cons of a $306 porch swingPros:An unbeatable price point: A 90% discount on a swing of this quality is unusual to find.Adjustable sunshade: This feature allows buyers to keep the glare out of their faces while they enjoy the swing.Folding trays with cupholders: There’s no need for a coffee table with this setup, thanks to the trays with cupholders.Cons:Assembly required: You will need to put this swing together yourself.The frame is not waterproof: The steel may show rust over time.Related: Walmart’s bestselling $200 patio swing with a sun shade is on sale for $90Shop more deals Best Choice 3-Seat Swing Glider With Removable Cushions, $200 at Macy’sTlsunny Patio Swing, $190 (was $400) at WalmartAt just $306, the Gaomon Three-Seat Porch Swing With Sunshade is a stellar deal. Now, you can laze the day away on your porch, deck, or in your sunroom while you enjoy the beauty of summer.

ASML Holding raised its full-year sales guidance on July 15 for the second time in 2026, and investors treated it as confirmation that the AI buildout still has room to run.A day later, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) did almost the same thing, lifting its own 2026 outlook for the second time this year, and its stock fell roughly 5% in premarket trading, according to Bloomberg.Same industry. Same underlying demand story. Opposite reactions.That gap is the real story in TSMC’s second quarter, and it says more about where the AI trade stands right now than the headline numbers do.TSMC’s second beat of the year didn’t buy the market’s confidenceTSMC posted second-quarter revenue of $40.2 billion, up 33.7% year over year, with earnings per ADR surging about 74% to $4.31, according to a Seeking Alpha report.Both figures beat Wall Street’s estimates, and it marked the company’s fifth consecutive record quarter, according to Benzinga.None of that is what moved the stock. Investors were not questioning whether TSMC had a good quarter. They were questioning what the company plans to spend to keep having good quarters, and whether that spending will show up in their returns.The capex number investors are actually reacting toTSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion, up from $52 billion to $56 billion, an increase of roughly 15%, according to Reuters.CFO Wendell Huang told analysts the company’s capital spending over the next three years will step up meaningfully from the past three, a signal that this is not a one-year adjustment.That framing matters because it echoes what ASML just told its own investors. ASML’s new full-year sales guidance of 43 billion to 45 billion euros, up from 36 billion to 40 billion euros, is its second raise of the year too, driven by the same AI-linked demand for advanced chipmaking tools, according to Bloomberg.When the foundry and its most important equipment supplier both raise spending expectations in the same week, the pattern stops looking like a TSMC decision and starts looking like an industry one.The concern showing up in TSMC’s stock price is about timing, not direction. Investors are worried the new overseas fabs will dilute margins as they ramp, which means the cash a hypergrowth stock is supposed to generate gets pushed further out even as the spending happens now.

TSMC raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to above 40% and lifted capex to $60-64 billion, yet shares fell about 5% on margin concerns.J Studios / Getty Images

Washington is gaining capacity while Beijing is losing shareTSMC also announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona, bringing its total US commitment to $265 billion, according to the Seeking Alpha report.The new money is earmarked for 2 nanometer and below production plus advanced packaging, meaning the most profitable manufacturing TSMC does is increasingly happening on US soil rather than in Taiwan.At the same time, revenue from China fell to 6% of TSMC’s total in the second quarter, down from 9% a year earlier.Put those two numbers together, and a structural shift comes into view. TSMC’s highest-value production and its highest-value customers are both migrating toward the same geography, which reduces geopolitical risk for US-based buyers like Nvidia and Apple even as it raises questions about long-term returns on Taiwan-based capacity.More TSMC:TSMC is about to answer Wall Street’s biggest AI questionThe whole chip trade is waiting on one reportTSMC’s June revenue jump breaks a four-year seasonal patternAgentic AI is quietly widening the list of beneficiariesCEO C.C. Wei told analysts that the rise of agentic AI is driving renewed demand for CPUs inside data centers, not just the AI accelerators that have dominated the narrative so far. That is a meaningful shift. It means TSMC’s growth is no longer a bet on Nvidia’s GPU roadmap alone.Wedbush analysts, who reiterated an outperform rating and raised their price target following the print, flagged which stocks stand to gain from that broader demand base, according to a Seeking Alpha report:Nvidia’s dominant accelerator market share puts it in the strongest position to benefit directly from TSMC’s expanded output, analysts led by Matt Bryson wrote.The capex increase at TSMC mirrors ASML’s own guidance raise, reinforcing that semiconductor capital equipment names are riding the same demand wave rather than a single customer’s spending.Broadcom, AMD, MediaTek, and Marvell Technology all sit inside the “positive” read-through, since CPU and custom silicon demand tied to agentic AI does not run through one vendor.What to watch next for TSMCxTSMC did not miss on anything this quarter. It beat, it raised guidance, and it committed more capital to the US than any semiconductor company in history has to a single country.The market’s reaction shows that “beat and raise” is no longer enough on its own when the spending required to sustain that growth keeps climbing alongside it.The number worth tracking going forward is not revenue growth. It is the gap between free cash flow and capital expenditure, since that gap will show whether the AI buildout is still creating value faster than it consumes it, or whether the industry’s biggest player is now spending simply to keep pace with demand it cannot fully satisfy.Related: TSMC’s June revenue jump breaks a four-year seasonal pattern

If you’ve noticed Google Search getting worse over the past few years, you’re not the only one. It has gotten so bad that recently Common Sense Media, a nonprofit focused on youth and technology, advised elementary school educators to ban their students from using Google search at all because it can solve homework problems for students while also providing inaccurate answers to search queries.A recent investigation by the BBC showed how easy it was to manipulate the AI-powered version of its search engine, with one researcher admitting, “I tricked ChatGPT and Google into telling the world I’m a world -champion competitive hot-dog eater.”Experts the BBC talked to say that this type of manipulation is “happening on a sweeping and systemic level.”So what can users do to combat this besides being extra vigilant when using Google search? But regulators in the European Union are betting that increased competition will help Google get better. EU forces Google Search to work with AI competitorsThis week, the European Commission, which is the political bloc’s competition regulator, ruled that Google will have to share its Search data.These requirements follow the recent passage of the Digital Markets Act. “Thanks to these measures, we hope to see emerging alternatives to Google Search and Google’s AI services, such as Gemini, and that users in the EU can enjoy greater choice of services,” said Henna Virkkunen, the Commission’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy. AI chatbots offering search functionalities, like those from ChatGPT and Claude, are eligible to receive shared data from Google. Subject to anonymisation, “Google should share the same data that it collects to optimize its own search services.”Google pushed back on the decision, saying that “today’s decisions risk undermining vital privacy and security guardrails for millions of Europeans,” according to an email from its lawyer Kent Walker viewed by Reuters. “We ​have repeatedly offered solutions to safeguard users while satisfying the DMA’s goals, but these rulings ​discount extensive evidence of user harm.”But the EU regulators see things differently. They say “data sharing is crucial for the development and optimization of third-party search engines. It helps to create a more level playing field with Google Search, and fosters innovative search services, which include privacy-focused alternatives.”Google is required to implement the new guidelines and start sharing search data with eligible parties starting in January 2027. EU continues to butt heads with American tech companiesLast year, U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) addressed a letter, co-signed by Scott Fitzgerald (R-WI), to EU antitrust czar Teresa Ribera, asking her to clarify the political bloc’s Digital Markets Act while stating their belief that the regulations target American companies. The DMA allows the EU to levy fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual revenue, and U.S. politicians are unhappy about this. “These severe fines appear to have two goals: to compel businesses to follow European standards worldwide, and as a European tax on American companies,” Jordan said in the letter, which was viewed by Reuters. Apple  (AAPL)  received the ignominious honor of becoming the first company to be sanctioned under the DMA on Nov. 5. While this is Apple’s first strike under the new DMA, it isn’t the first time the EU has fined the world’s most valuable company.In 2023, Apple was issued a $1.95 billion fine for how it treats Apple Music competitors. The European Commission claimed that Apple has been restricting app developers “from telling iOS users about alternative and cheaper music subscription services” for the past decade, leading Apple users to pay higher prices for music streaming services.Last year, President Donald Trump  signed a memorandum defending U.S. tech companies from what the White House says is “any act, policy, or practice in the European Union or the United Kingdom (that) incentivizes U.S. companies to develop or use products and technology in ways that undermine free speech or foster censorship.”Related: OpenAI loses another C-suite executive ahead of IPO

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealBackyards and garages have a way of accumulating things. It starts with a few gardening tools, some children’s toys, your DIY home project tools, or a few folded lawn chairs. Before you know it, you can’t find your drill, the hose is tangled up on the lawn, and you all but fall over avoiding the surprise toy truck hidden away in the grass. If you’re looking for a solid and weather-resistant storage option for your garage, patio, or lawn, the Aiho Outdoor Storage Shed offers a solid foundation without taking up too much space. This shed is just $80 and has a $36 shipping fee, offering a great price on the gray shed when compared to the original price of the brown color shed. This is also one of the lowest prices and best deals we’ve seen on an outdoor shed in a while. Aiho Outdoor Storage Shed, $80 (was $158) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

Shop at WalmartWhy do shoppers love it?The compact 5-foot-by-3-foot footprint makes it a workable option for smaller patios, gardens, and side yards where space is limited but storage is still needed. Rather than taking up the area, it fits alongside existing outdoor setups, offering an easy spot for tools, equipment, and seasonal items. The interior measures 76.1 inches tall with 44.8-inch-wide double doors, allowing a storage solution for larger items like bicycles, lawn mowers, a shelving unit, and more. Related: Amazon is selling a $105 storage shed with 15 square feet of storage spaceDesigned and constructed with galvanized metal, this shed is made to be outdoors. It’s UV-resistant, water-resistant, and resists fading and warping in the elements. The slanted roof prevents rainwater from pooling up or falling into the seams of the door, and the dual vents allow airflow, reducing moisture buildup on humid days. The corners of the shed feature a plastic protection shell to prevent damage, and screw protection shells for safety. The doors have a lockable design, working well with a normal padlock to keep your items secure.The pros and cons of this dealProsMaterial: The galvanized metal is water-resistant and UV-resistant.Option to lock it: The door features an option to fit a padlock to keep your items secure.Cons This shed does not have flooring: It’s best to place this shed on the deck or patio, as it does not have flooring of its own. Gaps in the installation: Some shoppers state they found gaps in the installation, fixing them with a small amount of caulking. One reviewer said, “For the price, you can’t beat it. I’ve bought two, and I am very happy with the product. It took only a few hours to build.”Another shopper said, “I am a 59-year-old woman and put my shed together by myself. It took me between six and seven hours.”Shop more dealsYodolla Outdoor Metal Storage Shed, $104 (was $190) at WalmartSeizeen Shed and Outdoor Storage, $210 at AmazonThe Aiho Outdoor Storage Shed provides ample storage space for garden tools, shelving, or larger items, while taking up minimal space in the yard or garage. The weather-resistant features protect it from daily elements, and the locking door can keep your items safe. This shed can be found at Walmart for just $80. 

Anyone who has booked a flight lately knows fares are not cheap. The airlines’ pricing data pattern over the last few months is unmistakable. Oil goes up, fuel costs surge, and airlines pass the pain to you. Now, the only question is how much of it they can absorb before it lands on your seat. And on July 15, United Airlines (UAL) answered that question with unusual transparency.The 95-year-old United Airlines (UAL) disclosed it expects nearly $6 billion in additional fuel expense for full-year 2026 compared to what it had modeled at the start of the year, according to the company’s July 15 Q2 earnings release. Oil prices have risen approximately 15% since the start of July alone, following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities. West Texas Intermediate crude sat near $67 per barrel on July 2. As of this writing on July 16, it is at $80, according to Trading Economics data.Yahoo Finance data shows UAL closed July 15 at $120.97, up slightly on the session. However, shares fell roughly 3% in premarket trading on July 16 as the market processed the Q3 earnings miss compared to expectations.The fuel math and what it means for the price of your next ticketFuel typically consumes about a third of an airline’s total operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) June 2026 data.When that cost doubles, as jet fuel essentially has since the Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28, 2026, of course, the economics of running an airline change fundamentally and quickly.IATA forecasts jet fuel to average $152 per barrel in 2026, a 68.8% increase from the 2025 average of $90, according to its June 2026 Global Outlook for Air Transport. More Airlines:Another low-cost airline leaves 6 cities, refunds availableDelta Air Lines cuts two flights forever, refunds availableSpirit Airlines won’t be coming back, and that costs flyers moneyTotal airline fuel spending globally is projected to reach $350 billion, up 39.3% year over year. Fuel now accounts for 31.4% of total airline operating expenses, up from 25.4% in 2025, according to IATA data.Airlines are passing those costs through directly to your fares. The IATA projects the average nominal one-way fare to rise to $193 in 2026, a 7.1% increase from $180 in 2025. Also Read: United Airlines Holdings Recent News and StoriesIncluding baggage fees and ancillary charges, the average return fare is expected to reach $462, up 7.7%, according to the same IATA report. Passenger ticket yields are forecast to grow 7% year over year, reversing years of flat or declining yield trends.In fact, United’s own Q2 data backs that pricing dynamic. Total revenue per available seat mile grew 12.1% year over year in the second quarter. Related: United Airlines makes baggage change many will appreciateYields were up 12% during Q2. The airline recovered approximately 50% of its $2.3 billion year-over-year fuel cost increase during the quarter, and it expects to recover 80% to 90% in Q3, with full recovery by Q4, according to United’s guidance commentary.My obvious interpretation of the math is that what United cannot absorb, you will pay as a traveler.United’s Q2 results and Q3 guide, strong revenue, clouded by fuelThe Q2 results themselves were genuinely strong by most measures.Total operating revenue reached $17.7 billion, up 16% year over year. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.99, topping the analyst estimate of $1.88. Premium revenue grew 16%Basic economy and loyalty revenue each grew 11%, cargo revenue rose 23%, and contracted business revenue jumped 27%. The second-quarter on-time departure rate was United’s best for a Q2 since 2021.
Source: United Q2 Results
One key number caught my attention. United flew a company record of 640,717 customers in a single day on June 18. I think that’s impressive for a company that once filed for bankruptcy 24 years ago, according to TheStreet.All of that, and more, is genuinely and massively impressive. But Q3 guidance missed. United forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.50 to $3.50, a midpoint of $3.00, against the analyst consensus of $3.60, according to TheStreet.The $575 million in added fuel cost from July’s oil spike alone, equivalent to $1.12 per share in adjusted earnings, is the reason for that gap. The average fuel price per gallon is expected to run at $3.69 in Q3. AAA Fuel Prices reports that on July 16, prices were at $3.94 per gallon.TheStreet confirms that for the full year, United raised the floor of its EPS guidance to $9 from $7, now guiding $9 to $11, with a midpoint of $10 versus the analyst consensus of $10.46. The company noted it would exceed the high end of both Q3 and full-year guidance if fuel returns to early July levels.

United flew a company record of 640,717 customers in a single day on June 18.Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images

How United is managing through the shock and what it signals to youCEO Scott Kirby was direct about the strategy. “When oil prices spiked in March, we quickly and decisively acted to adjust our schedules, while simultaneously doubling down on our customer investments,” he said in the earnings release.United raised $3.7 billion in new liquidity through private bank transactions during Q2, framing it as “low-cost insurance from geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of an extreme spike in oil prices.” The airline also expects Q4 capacity to be lower than the currently published schedules, with further reductions possible if fuel stays elevated.My interpretation of that capacity-management signal is important for every traveller. Fewer seats available plus strong demand equals higher fares. Both you and I now know that it is not speculation. That is basic airline economics playing out in real time across every major U.S. carrier simultaneously.The demand side remains genuinely strong. United’s best-ever customer satisfaction scores for check-in, food and beverage, and in-flight entertainment suggest travelers are not yet pulling back despite higher prices. Even Starlink Wi-Fi is installed on 450 aircraft, with nearly 1,000 expected by year-end. That delivers satisfaction scores twice as high as other connected flights. The first Airbus A321XLR enters domestic service this fall, as United reported.My final take is this. Unless oil retreats from its current $80 level back toward the $67, where it started in July, it’s fair to say that the pricing pressure on your next flight itinerary will only continue to build.Related: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby signals a major business shift

Disney is quietly considering offering a new free streaming option in response to shifting consumer behavior. The company, which owns streaming services Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN, recently saw revenue increase across all three platforms after raising subscription prices in October. In the first quarter of 2026, Disney’s SVOD (subscription video on demand) revenue rose by 11% year over year, according to its latest earnings report. Amid revenue growth, Disney has been working to reduce churn in recent months after Disney+ and Hulu saw churn rates spike to 7.8% and 9.6%, respectively, in September last year during the Jimmy Kimmel controversy, according to recent data from Antenna. However, those rates declined to 4.1% and 4.9% by December. During an earnings call in May, Josh D’Amaro said that the company is “highly focused on churn” in its streaming business and that Disney+ is critical to achieving this initiative. “All of the opportunities that we have to drive value at this company, reducing churn, Disney+ might be the single most significant opportunity that we have,” said D’Amaro. “And so it’s probably not surprising on pushing the entire organization to prioritize against that goal.”Disney weighs a free Disney+ streaming optionOne opportunity the company is reportedly exploring is offering a free version of Disney+ to consumers, according to a recent Business Insider report. Disney is considering allowing some of its Disney+ streaming content on this free version, a move that would be part of an ongoing discussion to better serve consumers. Adam Smith, a chief product and technology officer at Disney, discussed this potential free Disney+ option during a company streaming town hall on July 9. He didn’t provide a potential timeline for this free tier or any other additional information. Related: Disney suffers alarming loss after massive consumer boycottThe move from Disney comes after it faced backlash from subscribers last year for increasing several Disney+ plans by at least $2 in October. Some even threatened to cancel their subscription due to the higher prices. At the time, Disney+ Basic (with ads) increased from $9.99 to $11.99, while Disney+ Premium climbed from $15.99 to $18.99, and the Disney+/Hulu Bundle rose from $10.99 to $12.99.The price increases came after Disney+ plans went up by $2 in October 2024.

Disney is contemplating offering a free tier of Disney+ to consumers. Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda / Getty Images

Disney is responding to the growing shift toward free streamingMany consumers nationwide have grown tired of streaming price hikes and are becoming more comfortable with pulling the plug on their subscriptions. A survey from Reviews.org in June found that 52% of U.S. consumers have canceled or downgraded their streaming plans because of a price increase, and 43% are likely to cancel at least one streaming service in the next three months.More Telecom News:T-Mobile warns customers that a key service will double in priceVerizon adds generous offers for customers after price increaseSpectrum suffers heavy loss as customers ditch serviceAlso, 55% said they would use a free streaming platform because they can no longer have a reason to pay for another streaming subscription. The top three free streaming services that consumers in the survey said they use are Tubi, The Roku Channel, and Pluto TV. These free streaming platforms primarily generate revenue by running video ads during movies and TV shows. In a separate Reviews.org report, Trevor Wheelwright, a TV, streaming, and internet expert, said survey data reveal that “cost plays a huge role in which streaming services consumers decide to keep — or kick.” “Free streaming services are becoming a practical part of how many Americans watch TV, whether it’s catching videos and concerts on YouTube or discovering shows on Free, Ad-Supported Television (FAST),” said Wheelwright.“Not everything on streaming needs to be the latest rentals or releases — turning to lower-cost platforms allows consumers to maximize their day-to-day entertainment without maxing out their budget,” he added. Amid this shift in consumer behavior, Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch revealed during an earnings call in May that Tubi, which Fox owns, has “nearly 100 million monthly active users.” The platform’s revenue increased by 23% year over year in the first few months of this year, he added. “Engagement was also solid with a 19% increase in total view time, maintaining strong momentum from library content, Tubi originals and creator-led titles,” said Murdoch. Paramount, which owns Pluto TV, is also seeing monthly active users and engagement grow on the platform.“I am a big believer in the FAST space,” said Paramount CEO David Ellison during an earnings call in February. “And I think when you really look at globally, FAST is something that is only going to grow in importance, and when you look at the signs that are also really encouraging on Pluto, we are seeing engagement grow.”Jon Giegengack, a principal at Hub Entertainment Research, said in a TV Tech report in May that free streaming services will continue growing in popularity, and that’s not only because they are free. “‘Free’ is a reason for people to try a service, but it’s not enough to create real engagement over the long term,” said Giegengack.“However, this research shows the library content most FASTs are built around is actually a selling point for many users, as is the low-friction user experience of services that often don’t even require you to create an account,” he added. “As the cost of streaming — and everything else — keeps rising, free streaming will keep gaining ground.”  Related: Comcast eyes acquisition of 33-year-old rival amid struggles

Every disruptor sells the same promise. Pay less, get more, and watch the incumbents squirm.It is a thrilling pitch, and for a while it even works, because a hungry challenger will eat margin the giants refuse to touch.The problem is that the promise has a shelf life. Cheap is not a strategy. Cheap is a bet that your costs stay low forever, and costs never do.Sooner or later, the inputs get expensive, the discounts stop making sense, and the brand that once felt like a steal starts to feel like a compromise.Tech fans have watched this movie before. A scrappy company shows up, undercuts everyone, builds a cult, then slowly turns into the thing it set out to replace.The loyalists notice first. They always do.It is easy to blame the company for losing its way. Usually, there is a bigger force at work, one that has nothing to do with taste and everything to do with arithmetic.That is roughly the arc of OnePlus, the Android brand that spent a decade telling enthusiasts they were smart for spending less. This week, that arc reached its end in America.

OnePlus is exiting the US as its cheap-phone economics finally stop working.NurPhoto / Getty Images

What OnePlus is actually shutting downOnePlus will begin ceasing operations in the US and Europe as early as this week, as part of a broader restructuring at parent company Oppo, according to Bloomberg.The company started in 2013, built by Pete Lau and Carl Pei around one idea: sell a phone with flagship parts and skip the flagship markup, according to TechCrunch. Pei left in 2020 to launch Nothing, and the slow absorption of OnePlus into Oppo began soon after.More Technology:Micron stock jumps as investors look beyond GPUs in Al chip tradeAMD’s hidden Al weapon may finally be exposedApple’s iPhone cost problem reveals Al’s hidden billNo new OnePlus phones will be built or sold in either Western market now. Remaining inventory will be sold off over the coming weeks with no plans to restock, according to BGR.The brand is not vanishing everywhere. OnePlus will stay active in China for now, and India is expected to wind down at some point in 2027, according to Bloomberg. Realme, another Oppo brand, will exit China as part of the same shake-up.What survives will not look like what the OnePlus fans knew. Oppo plans to fold the brand into its own house, retiring OxygenOS and Realme’s software in favor of its ColorOS system, according to Neowin.I have followed OnePlus since the first OnePlus One shipped in 2014, and the real tell this year was never the hardware. It was the website, which quietly began steering shoppers in several regions toward Oppo storefronts before any of this was official, according to 9to5Google.Related: Samsung may be making its boldest foldable bet yetWhy the flagship killer ran out of roomThe flagship-killer model only works when premium parts stay cheap, and right now, they are anything but. A memory shortage (the industry is calling it RAMageddon) sent prices for the low-power memory, known as LPDDR, inside phones up roughly 250% in a year, as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron (MU) redirected production toward chips for artificial intelligence data centers, according to The Next Web.That cost spike lands hardest on cheap phones, because there is no room in a budget price to absorb it. OnePlus built its volume on the affordable Nord line, and that line depended on components that no longer exist at the old price.My read is that the Nord phones, not the flagships, were the real business, and the Nord phones are exactly what the shortage made impossible to sell at a profit.The pressure was not coming from one direction. Here is what the math looked like heading into the decision.Memory prices for the LPDDR chips in phones climbed about 250% over the past year, according to The Next Web.Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall more than 13% in 2026 on the chip crunch, according to IDC and Counterpoint via TechCrunch.Oppo ranked fourth in global shipments in the second quarter, with market share slipping to around 10%, down about two points from a year earlier, according to Neowin.Apple (AAPL) sued Oppo in 2025 over the alleged theft of Apple Watch trade secrets, a case Oppo denies, according to Bloomberg.In the US specifically, OnePlus was never close to the top. It trailed Apple, Samsung, Motorola and Google (GOOGL) Pixel, and its most recent flagship, the OnePlus 15, stumbled through a launch delayed by a government shutdown, according to The Next Web.Even where Oppo is staying in Europe, it is retreating to the corners it can defend, concentrating on Central Europe and pushing Realme in the Nordic region, according to Neowin.Add the political friction around selling Chinese-made phones to American buyers, plus that 2025 Apple lawsuit, and the case for staying got thin.When I lined up Oppo’s restructuring against that component math, the surprise was not that OnePlus is leaving. The surprise was that it hung on this long.What the exit means for current OnePlus ownersIf you already own a OnePlus phone, you are not stranded. Oppo has told reporters it will keep supporting existing devices, and the OnePlus 15 was promised four years of operating system updates and six years of security patches, according to BGR.The bigger loss is what the brand represented. The OnePlus 15 already shipped without the Hasselblad camera branding that once set the phones apart, and to plenty of fans, it read as a rebadged Oppo before any of this news broke.OnePlus is becoming a budget label inside Oppo rather than a standalone maker with its own flagship ambitions, according to Neowin. The company spent early 2026 denying it would leave, then admitted it was evaluating its future in Europe, according to 9to5Google. The denials aged badly.For American buyers, this removes one of the few names that reliably undercut the majors on price. What OnePlus leaving says about your next phoneThe uncomfortable part is that the force that killed OnePlus is not finished. The memory crunch that made cheap flagships impossible is now working its way up the price ladder.Apple already raised prices on Macs and iPads this summer and pointed straight at memory costs, and analysts still see the stock climbing anyway. The companies with pricing power will pass the shortage along. The companies without it, like OnePlus, simply leave.So the next time a phone that should cost $500 rings up closer to $700, remember what happened here. The flagship killer did not die because people stopped loving it. It died because the cheap parts it was built on got expensive, and no amount of goodwill pays a chip bill.That is the phone market Americans are walking into for the rest of 2026, one with fewer bargains and less mercy at the low end.Related: Apple gets a stunning boost as smartphone rivals stumble

Though the stock market has been dilly-dallying, as the British would say, UBS is sticking to its bullish outlook for the S&P 500. Though not a price-target reset, the bank’s latest message sharpens the debate over what must happen next for stocks to continue climbing.Earlier gains were driven mainly by enthusiasm, expanding valuations, and confidence in AI, but the next phase is likely to be less forgiving.Investors are now in ‘show-me’ mode, where strong expectations leave little room for earnings misses, weaker guidance, or signs that corporate spending is losing momentum.UBS remains constructive, but the forecast depends heavily on companies delivering results rather than investors simply paying more for future growth.

UBS maintains its bullish S&P 500 forecast as earnings expectations climb higherMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images

UBS’s 7,900 target is not a fresh reset According to Seeking Alpha reporting, UBS Global Wealth Management is sticking with its S&P 500 target, at 7,900 by year-end.More AI:The new Chinese AI model rattling U.S. tech investorsAnthropic restores access to Mythos 5 for select organizationsSoftBank CEO offers stinging critique of Musk’s AI betIt’s important to note, though, that the July 15 call wasn’t a new target increase. UBS had previously raised its forecast to 7,900 on May 22, up from 7,500, according to Yahoo Finance.What’s new is the Swiss bank’s message on what will drive the market’s next leg higher.The bank believes that robust cash flow, earnings growth, and company-specific execution, rather than generalized AI enthusiasm, will pave the way for a strong finish to the year.The target has shifted several times this year. Reuters reports that UBS entered April with a forecast of 7,700, then cut it to 7,500 on April 7 as higher oil prices threatened growth and inflation and raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve easing.The May increase marked a 400-point reset from the previous target, placing UBS 200 points above its prewar forecast. Reuters reports that the S&P 500 ultimately closed at 7,572.42, up 28.83 points, leaving it about 0.5% below its June record close.Hence, UBS’s 7,900 forecast therefore implies about 4.3% price upside by year-end, excluding dividends.Moreover, its June 2027 target of 8,200 implies about 8.3% upside from that level.So this is a constructive but measured forecast, not an extremely aggressive call. Much of UBS’s original upside has already materialized since it raised the target in May.What is driving UBS’s bullish forecast? As I mentioned earlier, UBS’s bullish S&P 500 forecast is built first on a major earnings reset.The bank raised its 2026 earnings estimate for the index to $335 per share from $310, which implies nearly 20% annual growth, up from its prior 11% forecast. UBS also introduced a $375 EPS estimate for 2027, representing another 12% increase.At a 7,900 year-end target, the S&P 500 would trade at about 23.6 times projected 2026 earnings and 21.1 times 2027 earnings. According to FactSet, it’s about 25% above the S&P 500’s 10-year average forward P/E of 18.9.That makes corporate execution paramount, with companies expected to deliver unusually strong profit growth now embedded in their estimates.Semiconductors form nearly 50% of the $25 increase in UBS’s 2026 EPS forecast. The sector contributed about $11, while energy added roughly $6 and all other industries contributed around $8.Additionally, UBS expects AI-related capital spending to supercharge 68% in 2026 to about $820 billion, followed by another 21% increase in 2027 to nearly $1 trillion. Tight semiconductor supply, rising chip-rental prices and ongoing capital raising makes near-term spending cuts virtually impossible.Tech stocks rally as megacaps lead gains Tech stocks were mostly in the green on July 15, though the rally was concentrated in megacaps instead of semiconductors. According to CNBC reporting, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.62% to 26,269.23, outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.38% move.Apple led the recovery among major AI stocks, rising 3.95% to a record closing high, while Alphabet’s Class C shares rose 3.60%. Meta advanced 3.07%, Amazon gained 3.02%, and Microsoft climbed 2.78%. Moreover, Saxo reports that fintech giant PayPal was the day’s standout mover, surging 17.2%, after reports of a takeover bid. On the flipside, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.1% as investors sold off Micron, Marvell, Intel, AMD, and other hardware names. What could derail UBS’s call?The first big risk is that earnings expectations have become too demanding. UBS itself doesn’t expect another large round of corporate guidance bumps this quarter, while broader Wall Street projections now require exceptionally strong results, particularly from technology and semiconductors.In fact, a Goldman Sachs note I covered showed that strategist Ben Snider felt that stocks might face near-term pressure from interest rate hikes, even with corporate profits being a bigger long-term driver. Reuters reports that even though inflation cooled this week, markets are not out of the woods yet, with CME FedWatch still assigning roughly a 60% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.The second big risk is concentration. Chip stocks and energy accounted for the bulk of UBS’s EPS upgrade. A memory-pricing reversal, slower hyperscaler spending, or falling energy profits will weaken the earnings foundation behind 7,900.Thirdly, oil prices and geopolitics remain major issues. UBS previously cut its target because disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threatened to raise inflation, weaken economic growth, and delay Fed easing. Related: Microsoft CEO adds fuel to Palantir CEO’s AI warning