The Street

Eli Lilly (LLY) has seen a lot of bullish calls from Wall Street in July. Guggenheim, Truist, Bank of America, Bernstein, and JPMorgan all raised their price targets in the first half of the month. Then UBSwent higher than nearly all of them.UBS’s call is worth watching closely because it landed in the same week as prescription data that point in a bearish direction.For anyone holding Lilly stock into its August earnings report, the gap between those two things is worth looking at.UBS raises its Eli Lilly price target to $1,425On July 13, UBS analyst Michael Yee lifted his price target on Eli Lilly to $1,425 from $1,250 and kept a buy rating. That is a 14% increase from the previous target, and it implies a roughly 20% boost from where the stock traded on the July 13.More Health Care Stocks:JPMorgan resets LLY stock target on drug demandJim Cramer crowns one surging sector the hottest in the marketLilly quietly hands Chinese partner its cancer drugYee tied the raise to sales momentum in Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s diabetes and obesity injections. He also cited optimism around Kisunla, its Alzheimer’s treatment, Financial Modeling Prep reported.A buy rating means the analyst expects the stock to outperform. The $1,425 figure is where he thinks shares could trade over the next 12 months.UBS was not alone. Guggenheim moved to $1,273, BofA to $1,334, Truist to $1,370, and Bernstein to $1,385, all in the same stretch, according to GuruFocus.

UBS raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,425, citing Mounjaro and Zepbound demand.JHVEPhoto / Getty Images

Why Mounjaro and Zepbound sales support the Lilly targetThe bull case rests on a business that has been growing at a pace that’s rare for major pharmaceutical companies.In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose 56% to $19.8 billion, and Lilly raised full-year guidance to between $82 billion and $85 billion, Lilly’s earnings release showed.What the franchise delivered in Q1Mounjaro brought in $8.66 billion worldwide, more than doubling from the same quarter in 2025.U.S. Zepbound sales reached $4.16 billion, up 80%.U.S. revenue climbed 43% to $12.1 billion on a 49% jump in volume.Adjusted earnings came to $8.55 per share against a $6.66 consensus, CNBC reported.Volume did that work, not price. Realized prices fell in both markets, and demand still overwhelmed the drag.That is the pattern Lilly’s management promised, and it is the reason analysts keep moving their targets up.The Foundayo prescription data complicating the bullish viewFoundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill, launched in April and was supposed to widen the market to patients who will not take an injection. However, weekly prescriptions have been flat for five weeks, Fierce Pharma reported, citing IQVIA data in a July 10 Jefferies note.Foundayo versus the Wegovy pill at week 13Foundayo: 19,550 weekly prescriptions, down for a third straight week from a week-10 peak of 21,648.Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill: More than 105,000 at the same point after launch.Jefferies projects $71 million in debut-quarter Foundayo sales, against a Wall Street consensus near $130 million.There are fair explanations for the performance. Oral Wegovy is semaglutide, a molecule doctors already knew, while Foundayo is a new compound with a new brand name.Coverage also arrived late, as CVS was the last of the three big pharmacy benefit managers to cover Foundayo, while Wegovy had full coverage in its first week. Employer appetite for GLP-1 coverage is also a separate pressure on the same demand curve.What the Kisunla and Alzheimer’s angle actually addsThe second leg of the UBS thesis is Kisunla, and the timing is planned. Lilly presented 16 abstracts at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London from July 12 to 15.Related: Eli Lilly’s hottest drugs face a quiet new threatThe headline items were long-term extension data on Kisunla’s benefit-risk profile and a comparison of P-tau217 blood tests against amyloid PET scans in patients with no symptoms yet.That second item matters a lot. PET scans are expensive and scarce, so a blood test that finds Alzheimer’s early would widen the pool of diagnosed patients, and every diagnosed patient is a potential Kisunla candidate.However, it is years from moving the revenue line the way Mounjaro does today.How Lilly stock has traded against its own good newsThe stock has not been keeping pace with analysts’ optimism.LLY share-price snapshot:Closed at $1,152.54 on July 14, down 4.89% over five trading days.Up 11.58% over the past six months, and still up on the year.52-week range of $623.78 to $1,249.45, with the all-time closing high of $1,235.56 set July 7.Market value near $1.09 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratioaround 41.The stock set a record on July 7, then gave back nearly 5% into the week UBS raised its target. At $1,152.54, the $1,425 target implies about 24% upside, wider than the roughly 20% measured on the day of the call.A price-to-earnings ratio in the low 40s means investors are already paying for years of growth that has not arrived yet, which is exactly why a lagging sales number can move the shares.What Eli Lilly investors should watch before Aug. 5Lilly reports second-quarter results on Aug. 5, and the report is a straightforward test for the stock.Three things that decide whether $1,425 holds:Foundayo’s reported quarterly sales: Consensus sits near $130 million, and Jefferies models $71 million, so the actual figure settles whether the IQVIA data was missing telehealth scripts or telling the truth.Mounjaro’s international momentum: Growth outside the U.S. ran 81% last quarter, helped by China adding Mounjaro to its reimbursement list, and generics are coming to some markets.Whether volume keeps outrunning prices: Realized prices are falling in both the U.S. and abroad, and the whole thesis depends on demand growing faster than that decline.Mounjaro and Zepbound are performing, and nobody disputes that.For long-term investors, the August report tells you whether Foundayo is simply experiencing a slow start or whether the drug is a miss.If you’re looking at adding LLY to your portfolio, keep in mind that six banks raised their targets into the same crowded trade this month, and the stock is already 8% off its high with a $1,425 target. At this multiple, one bad quarter is enough to hurtthe stock, so size your position accordingly.Related: Goldman Sachs doubles down on Novo stock target after key event

Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang has pushed back against reports that manufacturing problems could delay the company’s next artificial intelligence platform, Bloomberg reported.If those reports were wrong, it would protect investors far more than just a single product launch.Nvidia’s rapid growth is partly a function of its ability to roll out ever more powerful devices before customers finish adopting the previous generation. That quick cadence pushes cloud providers to spend, keeps competitors from catching up, and provides consumers a reason to stay within Nvidia’s hardware and software ecosystem.Next, we have Vera Rubin. Nvidia claims Rubin-based products will go to partners in the second half of 2026, Bloomberg notes. Any major delay may disrupt customer plans, just as the corporation is trying to turn the excitement around AI agents and robotics into another big source of demand.Huang said in Tokyo on July 15 that Rubin hardware was already in production and headed toward “giant” volumes, according to Bloomberg, rejecting reports of manufacturing difficulties involving a specialized circuit board.His assurance is significant because Rubin is not merely a more rapid successor to Blackwell.It is the technology Nvidia hopes will power the next generation of AI factories and serve as a bridge into physical AI when artificial intelligence moves beyond chatbots and begins managing robots, factories, and autonomous machinery.“Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming,” Huang said, as Tom’s Hardware confirmed.Nvidia’s growth depends on keeping Rubin on scheduleNvidia enters the Rubin transition in a position of tremendous financial strength.The corporation reported record first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year ago. Data-center revenue surged 92% to $75.2 billion, while Nvidia forecast revenue of around $91 billion for the next quarter, using its fiscal 2027 first-quarter statistics.Those data indicate that customers continue to consume Blackwell systems at massive volume.They also create expectations.Once a firm reaches the size of Nvidia, it takes more and bigger additions of income to keep growing fast. A delayed architecture might postpone data center construction, upset orders with suppliers, and offer customers more time to explore alternatives.Nvidia first unveiled Rubin in January as a six-chip architecture built on graphics processing units, central processing units, networking, and storage. Rubin has started full production, with partner availability expected in the second half of 2026, the company stated.By March, Nvidia had extended the platform to seven chips and pitched it as infrastructure for agentic artificial intelligence that can handle multistep tasks with little human input. The whole Vera Rubin platform is now in production.Related: Nvidia’s China opening could unlock surprise earnings upsideThat message was bolstered by Nvidia in May, when it said server makers and supply-chain partners were ramping up Rubin systems.Huang’s current comments are obviously more than a typical denial. They are a defense of Nvidia’s core pledge to investors: that it can migrate from one major platform to another without a long product gap stifling its growth.It’s not just individual chips contributing to the company’s recent edge. Now it creates full systems that incorporate CPUs, networking, software, and racks.That method can boost performance but can also raise execution risk. More components need to function together, and manufacturers need to construct ever denser and more sophisticated systems.This integration is on the magnitude of Vera, the platform’s central processing unit. Nvidia says the Vera CPU is in full production and can do specific AI-agent tasks 1.8x quicker than standard x86 CPUs.Rubin’s success will depend on Nvidia and its partners turning those individual technologies into full systems customers can reliably install.That makes manufacturing timing a direct investment issue, not just an engineering detail.

Nvidia’s Rubin update points to a bigger robotics opportunity.PHILIP FONG / Getty Images

Japan shows why Rubin is bigger than another data-center chipHuang’s choice to reach out to Rubin in Japan also alludes to the greater possibility for the platform.Japan has world-class manufacturers, factory automation businesses, and robotics experts. It also has a dwindling workforce, which provides companies a strong economic incentive to automate more physical tasks.Japan’s preliminary census estimates showed a population of 123.05 million in October 2025, down 3.1 million from 2020. More than 90% of Japan’s municipalities suffered population reduction, according to the Statistics Bureau.More Nvidia:Nvidia’s workplace culture sends Big Tech a warningNvidia’s $25B bond deal sends investors a clear signalBank of America resets Nvidia stock forecast after CFO meetingThis demographic pressure makes robotics more than a speculative technical trend.To sustain output, Japanese firms may need to use machines that can learn, adapt, and execute a greater variety of activities if the labor pool declines.Japan’s administration is on the right track. In June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry updated its AI Robotics Strategy, keeping the target of deploying about 10 million robots by 2040 in 18 key sectors, according to NHK World Japan. The plan comprises labor-intensive businesses such as manufacturing, health care, and food services.And that’s where Nvidia wants to be the computational layer behind that transformation.In its review of the Japanese AI and robotics ecosystem on July 15, it mentioned work with cloud providers, manufacturers, universities, and robotics developers using Nvidia technology. That might help diversify Nvidia’s AI narrative.The company is currently focusing its data-center growth on a relatively small number of big cloud providers and technology enterprises. Robotics may boost demand from manufacturers, logistics companies, hospitals, and industrial firms.They also relate to workload.Developers are able to train robot models in data centers, test them in simulations, and then run them on processors within physical machines. Nvidia can potentially sell technology at each step.Its Isaac robotics platform offers models, simulation tools, data pipelines, and computer systems for building and deploying AI-powered robots.This full-stack strategy resembles the approach that made Nvidia dominant in data centers.The corporation doesn’t want to sell the processor inside a robot. It wants developers to train the model using software from Nvidia, test it using simulation tools from Nvidia, refine it using servers from Nvidia, and manage it using edge computers from Nvidia.Rubin may shore up the data center side of the chain by backing the big AI factories required to train ever-more-sophisticated physical AI models.That’s the greater gamble Huang’s production comments are defending.What Nvidia investors should watch nextThe first question is whether Rubin systems will start to reach customers in the back half of 2026 as predicted.Producing is not the same as mass-deploying to customers. Nvidia and its manufacturing partners need to build, test, and ship full racks in sufficient numbers. Then, customers require power, cooling, and networking infrastructure to install them.Investors should be listening for signs of Rubin revenue, fixed delivery timelines, and client deployments during upcoming earnings calls from Nvidia.The second question is whether Blackwell demand holds during the transition.Demand for AI computing is outstripping supply, so customers may continue buying Blackwell. But some purchasers may choose not to order if Rubin adds enough extra performance to make waiting worthwhile.Nvidia has to deal with that shift without generating a revenue lull or developing a bunch of old gear consumers don’t want.The third development to watch is whether physical AI begins to produce measurable business.Japan is a really interesting demonstration market with both modern manufacturing and very strong demographic pressure. Successful deployments there could drive uptake in other aging economies and labor-constrained industries.Key takeaways for Nvidia investorsHuang says Vera Rubin is already in production, despite reported manufacturing concerns.Nvidia expects partners to offer Rubin-based products during the second half of 2026.Rubin’s timing matters because Nvidia must sustain rapid growth from an increasingly large revenue base.The platform is designed for AI agents and the data centers that train physical-AI systems.Japan’s shrinking population creates a strong economic incentive for factory and service-sector automation.Robotics could broaden Nvidia’s customer base beyond large cloud providers.Another variable is China. Huang said Nvidia only started selling H200 chips to the U.S. while the government was starting to assess permits on a case-by-case basis.The Commerce Department’s H200 export policy provides for case-by-case licenses if exporters and buyers meet security conditions, Reuters reported. But those sales would still be subject to decisions made in Washington and Beijing, and they may boost the bottom line.Rubin is something that Nvidia can influence more directly: execution. The corporation has to show that more complex technologies can move from announcement to production to client data centers without a harmful delay.Huang’s denial eases some worries, but investors still need to see shipments and revenue.And that is why the Rubin argument is important. Nvidia is no longer being evaluated just as the top supplier of AI chips. Investors expect it to continue an aggressive product cadence while moving its platform into AI agents, autonomous machines, and robotics.Keeping Rubin on track maintains that bigger thesis.A successful launch would demonstrate that Nvidia can continue to feed the data center expansion and provide the computing infrastructure for a new industrial market.A delay, however, would threaten both assumptions at once.Related: Nvidia stock remains Morgan Stanley’s top pick despite headwinds

As multiple airline and credit card lounges have seen significantly higher visitor numbers over the last year, many have rushed to build new ones. Their goal? Spreading out the traffic and maintaining the luxury perception of a service envisioned as a perk for spending.American Airlines is currently building a new Admirals Club location in Austin International, while JetBlue Airways opened its first lounge at JFK in New York in December 2025.At the start of June, Delta Air Lines unveiled plans to build a second Delta One Lounge at LAX. Differing from the regular SkyClub lounges in many smaller airports, Delta One is the airline’s most premium tier of airport lounge, known for offering more fine dining and more luxurious spa amenities.New Chase Sapphire Lounge at DFW opens to visitorsAbout a year after the bank and credit card issuer confirmed the construction of a new lounge at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), the Chase Sapphire Lounge by The Club officially opened to visitors on July 16.The new location by Gate D25 in the airport’s Terminal D is the ninth Chase lounge across the country, and at 18,000 square feet, it is the third largest, just slightly smaller than the ones that New York LaGuardia (LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL) opened in the last two years.Related: We got a peek inside the fancy new Capital One airport loungeThe latest Chase Sapphire lounge offers features unique to Dallas, including a separate whiskey lounge where guests with more time to kill before their flight can get a guided tasting of local Texas whiskeys, available exclusively in the lounge.Food is another area where lounge operators can impress guests and highlight the local touch. The new Chase Sapphire location has both cross-network specialties such as the Sapphire Burger, along with a rotating selection of Tex-Mex dishes, including Mexican shrimp cocktail and slab bacon with cheesy grits, developed by the chef from Dallas Bishop Arts District restaurant Encina.The signature restaurant dishes are made to order, while the buffet also features tasty finds like chicken gumbo rojo and a chorizo sweet potato hash for breakfast.

The Dallas location is the bank’s ninth airport lounge.Chase

How to gain access to the Chase Sapphire airport loungesWhile three other Chase Sapphire locations also offer showers, the newest location goes above and beyond with a mini Face Haus spa, in which guests can either catch a nap in a resting pod or request a 30-minute facial.The other Chase Sapphire lounges equipped with showers are located at JFK, Boston Logan (BOS), Philadelphia (PHL), and Washington Dulles (IAD). At New York’s LaGuardia Airport (LGA), Chase Sapphire guests can purchase shower access through a paid Reserve Suite.More Travel News:Airline to launch unusual new flight to Cayman Islands from the U.S.There is a very cool Irish version of swimming pigs in the BahamasUnexpected country is most luxurious travel destination for 2026Low-cost airline launches easier way to get to Sri Lanka”As Chase continues to deepen its commitment to North Texas, we’re proud to bring Sapphire Reserve cardmembers an elevated travel experience that reflects the scale and energy of the region, while celebrating its pioneering spirit, local flavor and rich cultural identity,” Dana Pouwels, head of airport lounge benefits at Chase, said in a press release on the opening.Access to the Chase Sapphire lounge is available exclusively to holders of the Chase Sapphire Reserve, Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business, and Ritz-Carlton Rewards Credit Card. The latter credit card has been grandfathered and is no longer open to new applicants, while the other two cards cost $795 per year.The other two ways to get one-time access are purchasing a $27 guest pass, or, once a year, through the Priority Pass program that opens up a network of different airport lounges at tier levels going up to $469 per year.Related: 105-year-old historic hotel by national park files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Carmakers like to say they follow the customer. The truth is colder than that.For 15 years, the American auto industry quietly retired the cheap sedan, the hatchback, and the humble wagon, then acted surprised when shoppers drifted toward the taller, pricier crossovers that were the only things left on the lot.Preference followed availability, not the other way around. Four utility and pickup segments now account for more than half of every new vehicle sold in the United States, according to S&P Global Mobility, and traditional passenger cars have been squeezed into a thin slice of the market.Volvo (VLVOF) read that room early. The Swedish brand, controlled by China’s Geely (GELYF), leaned into crossovers like the XC60 and stopped fussing over the boxy wagons that once defined its image.So it was worth a second look this week when Volvo hinted it may double back. The automaker is considering a midsize electric sedan and a matching wagon for U.S. showrooms around 2028, both likely starting in the low $50,000s, according to Automotive News.Why Volvo is rethinking its all-crossover lineupNot long ago, Volvo was moving the other way. Its leadership signaled it might drop its slow-selling wagons entirely and pour that money into the crossovers American buyers actually wanted, as TheStreet highlighted.That reversal is the tell. A sedan and a wagon riding on the same electric platform let Volvo squeeze extra models out of engineering it has already paid for, without standing up a whole new production line. It is cheap volume, and cheap volume is exactly what a midsize luxury brand craves when it is fighting for showroom space against a dozen near-identical crossovers.More Automotive:BMW’s new SUV is built for an uncertain futureThe U.S. may never sell 17.6 million cars againBofA sees Ford chasing a market far bigger than EVsThere is also the matter of identity. Volvo built its name on square, sturdy estate cars, and a small but stubborn group of buyers still wants these. In my analysis, this is less a forecast about where the whole market is heading and more a wager that a brand can win a sliver of business by selling the thing almost nobody else bothers to build.The company also has room to move. Its lineup already runs on a shared electric architecture, so adding a low sedan and a long wagon is closer to a trim decision than a moonshot. When the tooling is mostly sunk, a few extra shapes are close to free.For now, Volvo’s U.S. showroom is all crossovers, from the small EX30 up to the three-row EX90. A sedan and a wagon would be the first vehicles in the lineup that do not pretend to be trucks, and the first real nod to the estate-car buyers the brand spent years quietly showing the door.

Volvo weighs bringing an electric sedan and wagon back to U.S. showrooms by 2028.Peter Dazeley / Getty Images

What the sedan and wagon bet actually signalsHere is the part that reframes the story. Volvo expects the sedan and wagon together to add only about 10,000 U.S. sales a year, according to Automotive News.That is not a market shift; that is a rounding error.When I ran that figure against the rest of the market, what came into focus was the strength of the SUV’s grip, not any crack in it.Volvo projects the sedan and wagon will add roughly 10,000 combined U.S. sales a year, according to Automotive News.That is under 5% of the 216,399 new EVs Americans bought in just the first quarter of 2026, Kelley Blue Book confirmed.Utility vehicles and pickups made up more than half of all new U.S. vehicle sales in early 2025, S&P Global Mobility noted.The $7,500 federal EV tax credit that once supported those sales expired on Sept. 30, 2025, according to Kelley Blue Book.Volvo is not alone in reaching back for the sedan. General Motors (GM) is planning new sedans for Buick and Chevrolet, even as it trims some of its electric targets, according to Automotive News.Read together, these moves are not signs that the crossover is dying. They are signs that a few automakers see money still sitting in the segments everyone else abandoned.There is a defensive logic to it, too. When a dozen luxury crossovers blur together on the same dealer row, a sharp-looking wagon is one of the few ways left to look different without cutting the price.That is the unglamorous reason legacy brands keep circling back to cars. Crossovers made everyone look the same, and sameness is quiet death in a luxury aisle where the whole pitch is that you are paying for something the neighbors do not have.How a challenging EV market shapes the mathThe timing is the hard part. Volvo would be launching these cars into the weakest U.S. electric market in years.U.S. drivers bought 216,399 new electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, down 27% from a year earlier, and battery-electric cars slipped to about 5.8% of new sales, according to Kelley Blue Book. The $7,500 federal tax credit that had propped up EV pricing expired on Sept. 30, 2025, and no federal incentive has replaced it.That is why the low-$50,000s price tag matters more than it might at first appear. Without the credit, every EV now has to justify its sticker on its own merits, and a $50,000 Volvo must feel like the $57,500 car it effectively replaces.Related: Volvo loses key executive before major product pushThe competition has shifted underneath it, too. As new EV prices climbed, plenty of shoppers moved to gas-electric hybrids or to cheaper used electric cars, according to Kelley Blue Book. A fresh $50,000 Volvo sedan has to pull those buyers back before it ever gets to fight the crossover parked next to it.What struck me is the discipline in aiming for just 10,000 sales. Volvo is not betting the company on a sedan comeback. It is running a low-cost experiment to see whether a different silhouette can still move metal now that the incentive making EVs easy to sell is gone.For anyone holding auto stocks, that is the real question. The winners of the next few years will be the automakers that learn to make electric cars pay without Washington’s help, and small, cheap bets like this one are how they run the test before committing real capital.What Volvo’s small bet means for the road aheadThe reflex is to read a sedan revival as the SUV finally cracking. It is not.The sharper signal is buried in that 10,000 figure. The fact that even a heritage wagon brand now treats the body style it helped make famous as a niche side project shows how thoroughly the crossover has taken over.Watch whether the niche grows. If Volvo’s sedan and wagon quietly beat their modest targets, expect rivals to follow with their own low-risk hedges, and expect the industry to admit that not everyone wanted to sit up high after all.If the two cars land with a thud, it confirms the harder truth. In America, the tall crossover is not a passing phase. It is the default setting, and the road back to the sedan runs uphill the whole way.Related: Toyota’s global dominance faces new test

The AI boom has been one of the biggest investing stories of the past few years. Nvidia became one of the most valuable companies on earth. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon poured hundreds of billions into infrastructure. But the companies actually building the models at the center of it all have stayed private, leaving most investors on the outside looking in.Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is about to change that. Bankers are now lining up investor meetings ahead of a potential October IPO, and the process is far enough along that this is no longer a rumor. The company behind one of the most widely used AI models in the world is preparing to go public, and the numbers it’s bringing to market are striking.What Anthropic’s IPO preparation actually looks like right nowAnthropic filed its draft registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026. The filing was confidential, meaning the prospectus isn’t public yet. Since then, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase have been brought in as lead underwriters, according to CNBC. Those are Wall Street’s three largest banks by revenue. The fact that all three are on the deal signals this is being treated as a major market event.Bankers are now setting up meetings between Anthropic executives and prospective institutional investors. Think of it as the AI company going on a listening tour before it actually asks anyone to write a check. The banks want to know what price range the market will support, what questions investors have, and whether demand is sufficient to pull off a deal this big. October is the target date, though that could change, depending on what they hear and how the SEC review of the confidential filing goes.Wilson Sonsini, the law firm that managed Google’s 2004 IPO, is handling Anthropic’s public market readiness. That’s not a random choice. It’s a signal about ambition.The numbers behind Anthropic’s near-trillion dollar valuationAnthropic closed a $65 billion Series H funding round in May 2026 at a post-money valuation of $965 billion, according to Investing.com. That pushed it above OpenAI’s valuation for the first time. It also put the company within range of becoming the first AI model developer to cross a trillion dollars in value before going public.More AI:The new Chinese AI model rattling U.S. tech investorsAnthropic restores access to Mythos 5 for select organizationsSoftBank CEO offers stinging critique of Musk’s AI betThe revenue numbers are hard to wrap your head around. Anthropic’s annualized revenue was around $9 billion at the end of 2025. By April it was $30 billion. By late May, the company said it had crossed $47 billion. That’s the same company, six months later, with five times the revenue run rate. The growth came from enterprises piling into Claude and from Claude Code, the company’s agentic coding tool, which had already hit $2.5 billion in its own annualized revenue by February.

Bankers are now setting up meetings between Anthropic executives and prospective institutional investors.Yeh/Getty Images

Why Anthropic is racing to beat OpenAI to the public marketsOpenAI also filed a confidential S-1 in late May 2026. It has Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and JPMorgan working on its deal. But OpenAI has since pushed its IPO target from fall 2026 to 2027, according to CNBC. That gives Anthropic a window to be first.Being first matters for two reasons. The company that goes public first sets the valuation benchmark for the sector. And if AI enthusiasm fades later in the cycle, being first means accessing institutional capital before sentiment shifts. Kalshi prediction markets put Anthropic’s probability of listing before OpenAI at 72%.SpaceX’s June IPO is the comparison point everyone is watching. It was the first blockbuster AI-adjacent listing of the year. If Anthropic prices well and the stock holds, it could open the window for the biggest wave of AI IPOs since the technology emerged into mainstream consciousness.The risks that will face Anthropic as a public companyThe story isn’t clean. Anthropic is spending $1.25 billion per month on computing capacity through a deal with SpaceX, which runs through May 2029, according to The Next Web.That’s an annualized infrastructure commitment of $15 billion from a single supplier. Total compute spending in 2026 is estimated at roughly $19 billion. At $47 billion in annualized revenue with gross margins around 40%, the path to sustained profitability is real but not immediate. The company doesn’t expect to be profitable until 2028.There’s also a revenue accounting question. Analysts have flagged that the $47 billion annualized figure may include committed contract value that hasn’t been recognized as revenue yet, the Under the Market Lens Substack noted. That distinction matters to public market investors, who will be valuing the company on actual revenue, not on what contracts say could come in.The Pentagon designated Anthropic as a supply-chain risk earlier this year, the BBC reported. That hasn’t killed its enterprise momentum, but it’s an overhang that public investors will want management to address directly in the prospectus and on roadshow calls.What Anthropic’s IPO means for AI investors and the broader marketThe IPO market has already had its strongest year since 2021. Companies have raised $227.5 billion globally through listings this year, excluding SPACs, according to CNBC. Anthropic at $60 billion would be one of the largest raises in history.For investors who have wanted direct exposure to the AI model layer, this is the first real opportunity at scale. Nvidia gives you the chips. Microsoft and Google give you the platforms. Anthropic would give you the model company itself, the one building the AI that enterprise clients are increasingly choosing over the alternatives.Whether the market will pay a premium valuation for a company still burning cash at scale is the central question. The investor meetings happening right now are the first real test. What institutional buyers tell those bankers over the next few weeks will determine whether October becomes a milestone for AI investing, or a story about what the public market wasn’t quite ready for.Related: Elon Musk says he was wrong about Anthropic

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealFrom skincare essentials and tubes of toothpaste to hair brushes and cotton swabs, the bathroom counters can quickly overflow with products. A lavatory with a medicine cabinet behind the mirror or a few cabinets and drawers under the sink will offer more storage to work with, but after arranging the toilet paper, cleaning supplies, and medicine bottles, you still might be short on space. If you want to clear the clutter from your bathroom counters, a countertop organizer is one of the most efficient hacks for keeping things nice and tidy. In our opinion, the best storage solutions have a fashion-forward design that will upgrade the overall style of the room, which is why we love the Delamu 2-Tier 2-Drawer Bathroom Countertop Organizer at Walmart. Highly rated, this organizer is a popular pick for its lavish look that can instantly transform your bathroom, while also providing multiple tiers and drawers of storage for your cosmetics and toiletries. Best of all, the regular retail price of $40 has been slashed by 53% with a Walmart Flash deal, bringing the total cost down to just $19.Delamu 2-Tier 2-Drawer Bathroom Countertop Organizer, $19 (was $40) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

Shop at WalmartWhy do shoppers love it?Perfectly sized to fit onto the countertops, this organizer measures 12.4 inches long, 7.9 inches wide, and 15.3 inches high. The unit is made with high-quality and durable thermoplastic polymer, so if your lotions or creams ever leak, you can easily wash them off. While the compact footprint of this organizer won’t take up too much room, it maximizes unused or wasted space with a vertical design, equipped with two drawers and shelves stacked together. You can even use the upper drawer as a secondary storage tray if you want, giving you more flexibility in organizing. The drawers and upper-tier shelf are made with a clear amber-hued finish, which gives the organizer an Old Hollywood glam look paired with the golden hardware. If you don’t love the vintage style, there are also white and blue colorways discounted to $20 or less as part of the sale. “Love these for extra storage!” raved one shopper. They also remarked that the “amber-colored drawers and top tray were just what I was looking for.”Related: Walmart has a storage cabinet with drawers and a cupboard for just $67Of the nearly 200 reviewers who have rated this bathroom organizer, over 80% have given it a perfect five-star rating. One shopper who called it “inexpensive elegance” explained that it “elevated my bathroom to a much more elegant level.”Details to know Dimensions: 12.4 inches long, 7.9 inches wide, and 15.3 inches high.Color options: All seven colors are discounted to $24 or less. Material: ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene).Average shopper rating: 4.7 out of five stars.This organizer isn’t limited to being used on the countertop or in the bathroom. It would also look great on the kitchen counter or next to a coffee bar, with room for syrups, tea bags, and beans. You could also use it under the sink or on a desk in the home office if you’re lacking counter space. With a little creativity, your organizing options are endless. Shop more dealsJdnrxo 2-Tier Corner Bathroom Counter Organizer, $21 (was $24) at WalmartXeenso Dresser Shelf Organizer, $22 (was $38) at WalmartKisportee Rotating Makeup Organizer, $19 (was $40) at WalmartStreamline your home on a budget while the Delamu 2-Tier 2-Drawer Bathroom Countertop Organizer is on sale for as low as $19 at Walmart. We’ve seen the best Flash deals sell out before the week ends, so don’t wait to add this one to your cart.

Before a scammer asks for a wire transfer, gift card, or your bank login, they usually ask for something much smaller: quiet.“Don’t tell your kids.”“Your phone might be hacked. Don’t call anyone about this.”“This has to stay between us.”“The bank told me not to discuss this with family.”If you’ve heard any version of those lines — or a parent or older relative has repeated one back to you without quite explaining why — it’s a red flag. These statements are the mechanism scammers use to steal. Money’s the goal, and isolation helps scammers get it. Once someone stops checking in with the people who’d normally catch inconsistencies, like a spouse, adult child, or banker, the scammer becomes the only remaining source of information. There’s no one else who could say, “Wait, that doesn’t sound right.”Read:FTC Survey: Older Americans getting hammered by scamsThis isn’t an article about gullibility. It’s a story about a deliberate tactic built to create trust. Recognizing it is the first step to catching it before it goes too far.Why this strategy works well on older adultsNot everyone reacts the same way to a request for secrecy. For those already quietly worried about being seen as less capable or a family member deciding it’s time to step in, that request taps into an existing fear.Darius Kingsley, Head of Consumer Fraud and Scam Prevention at J.P. Morgan Chase, said scammers lean hard on urgency. They make a situation feel time-sensitive, like a legal emergency or a compromised account, so people act before they pause to think or call someone they trust.Elizabeth Huppert, a behavioral scientist at J.P. Morgan Chase, points to the mechanism driving that strategy. Once someone stops checking in with people they trust, the scammer becomes their only source of information, and it becomes almost impossible to fact-check the story as it shifts. The situation gradually (or quickly) feels more urgent and real, not because the victim is careless, but because the scammers have quietly removed every alternative source of truth.These scams rarely sound like a threat — more like help. Kingsley describes scammers posing as bank security or law enforcement, with lines like “this is part of an investigation” or “your account will be frozen if you disclose this.” Some claim bank employees are involved in the fraud, leading the victim to distrust those who could actually help. Kingsley has seen scammers stay on the phone with a victim inside a bank branch, coaching them in real time on what to say and do, even as a teller is standing right there (and likely suspects something is wrong, because they’re trained to spot these scams).According to Huppert, it isn’t always fear doing the work, either. Some scams create a crisis, whether a threat or a legal emergency, that makes someone scared of what might happen if they don’t act immediately. Others lean into excitement. They might dangle an investment or opportunity that feels too good to slow down and question.Fear and excitement push toward making a decision quickly, alone, and before anyone else weighs in. Every version replaces “tell someone” with “trust only me.”Shame arrives, too, but later in the process, after fear or excitement has had its effect. Once someone starts to suspect that something is wrong, Huppert notes, embarrassment about being judged can make it harder to speak up. That shame doesn’t necessarily end when the scam does, either. People who realize afterward that they were scammed sometimes isolate further instead of seeking support precisely because they’re worried about how it will look.So if a parent or relative falls for one of these scams, don’t take it as a sign that they’ve lost their judgment. The criminal behind the scam knew exactly which fear or hope to manipulate and did so skillfully enough that calling for help felt like the riskier option.Related: Beware of this scam targeting seniors’ bank accountsThe red flags families miss — and whyHere’s the part that catches most families off guard. The early signs rarely look like fraud and a lot more like aging.A parent suddenly is more private about mail.Someone more anxious before answering the phone.A relative who’s become quieter about money.An older relative in a new online relationship who becomes vague or elusive when asked about the personNone of these scenarios screams “SCAM!” so it’s easy to explain away. Dad’s always been cautious. Mom’s just private about finances. She’s lonely — of course, she should date.That explanation is much more comfortable than the alternative, which is why families tend to accept it. Kingsley said there’s no timeline to sussing out a scam. Some families catch on within hours or days, and others not for weeks or months.A few patterns worth a closer look, even before anyone reports a problem, include:Large transfers to unfamiliar accounts or crypto walletsA first-time wire or payments to the same recipient that increase over timeMoney that’s moved between accounts, followed by an immediate outbound paymentUnexpected or sudden, secretive changes to a will or power of attorneyA new interest in an unfamiliar investmentRapid ATM withdrawals or multiple cashier’s checks that differ from past habitsNew payees appearing on a bank accountNone of these alone proves anything, but together — especially if they’re new and out of character — are worth a conversation.Kingsley suggests establishing regular check-ins about finances, which makes it easier to catch changes early. A family cool-off rule, pausing 24 hours before sending any payment above a set amount, also gives someone room to step back and consult a trusted person before a decision becomes irreversible. This small delay may be the only thing standing between a moment of pressure and a wire transfer you can’t reverse.How to start the conversation without shutting the doorA direct, worried question — “Are you giving money to someone you don’t know?” — is more likely to put the other person on the defensive. It sounds like an accusation, not a concern about a potential scam.Huppert said that scammers typically coach victims to distrust those around them. They see loved ones as obstacles. Jumping to questions can backfire before the conversation starts.Prioritize trust-building, making it clear you’re on their side. Help them feel supported (not judged) by not questioning their decision-making. Give them the space to pause, step back, and recognize something’s not right.Try this approach instead:“There’s a scam going around that targets people by asking them to keep it secret. Has anything like that come up for you?” or “I’m not checking up on you, I just want to make sure no one’s targeting you because criminals design these scams to be super convincing.”If shame has already entered the room, name it directly — these scams happen to smart, careful people every day, and it’s not a reflection of anyone’s judgment. Normalizing the experience, rather than reacting to it, helps keep people in the conversation and not retreat.Remember: your goal is not to elicit a confession but to make it safe for them to say, “Actually, yeah. Something has felt off.”Setting up a safety net before you need oneOne of the most useful tools isn’t a conversation but a structure you put in place before anything looks wrong.A trusted contact person (TCP) is a feature some banks, including Chase, offer that allows someone to designate a person the bank can contact if it notices unusual account activity. Note that a TCP can’t view balances, access funds, or make transactions. They’re a point of contact, not a co-owner, which is different from a Power of Attorney (POA). A POA grants legal authority to act on someone’s behalf, or a joint bank owner, who has direct transaction access. A TCP adds awareness. The bank flags a concern, and the contact checks in. That’s it.Resistance to setting up a TCP often stems from the same place that scams exploit — fear of losing independence. Framing a TCP as something added for your loved one’s independence, rather than a vote against their judgment, tends to land better. If your loved one is adamant that nothing’s wrong but you’re still worried, Kingsley recommends taking an empathetic rather than a confrontational approach. Aggressive questioning can unintentionally push someone further into isolation or make them defensive.Take your cue from your relationship dynamic. You might:Keep communication open with regular check-insLook for natural opportunities to involve a trusted third party, like a banker, attorney, or financial advisor, who can ask questions without the emotional weight a family relationship carriesWatch for gradual behavioral or financial changes over timeAdd a safeguard, like a trusted contact personIf you’re worried about a parent or relative now, or just want to be prepared:Have the conversation before it becomes critical — in fact, have several conversations. Mention scam tactics in general, not as an accusation.Introduce the idea of setting up a TCP, framing this suggestion as an extra layer of protection, not a step toward giving up independence.Keep an eye out for a change in patterns, like a change in mail habits, calls, or money handling. It might not be personality-related, but it’s worth noting even if the explanation checks out.If you suspect something, lead with empathy — not confrontation. Regular, low-pressure check-ins are generally easier on everyone than one big, overwhelming conversation.Loop in a third party when you can. A banker, attorney, or advisor can ask questions without the emotion of family dynamics.Secrecy is a scammer’s main tactic. These criminals count on isolation working. The best way to counter a potential scam? A family that talks about money, has a plan, and doesn’t see check-ins as an accusation. That strategy is hard for any script to counteract.This story written for TheStreet by Nifty 50+

International Business Machines (IBM) has spent three years quietly convincing Wall Street it belonged in the artificial intelligence trade. However, on July 14, the market decided otherwise in a single session. IBM shares closed at $217.07, falling 25.21% that day alone. This came after the company pre-announced a second-quarter miss that nobody saw coming. That was its worst drop since 1968, even worse than Black Monday in October 1987.Roughly$68 billion in market value vanished, and Big Blue is now worth about $204 billion.Here’s the part that should interest investors more: Micron Technology (MU) went up the same day, on the same news.Why IBM’s earnings warning erased $68 billion in one sessionIBM told investors its preliminary second-quarter revenue came in at $17.2 billion, against the $17.86 billion Wall Street expected.The company also reported adjusted earnings of $2.93 a share versus the $3.01 consensus, according to Forbes.The miss itself was small. But the reason behind it was not.More AI Stocks:Micron stock jumps as investors look beyond GPUs in AI chip tradeThe entire chip market is waiting for TSMC’s July earnings reportMajor AI chip stock plunges after blockbuster $26.5 billion Nasdaq debutCEO Arvind Krishna wrote to investors that clients redirected budgets toward servers, storage, and memory in the final weeks of June to lock down supply before prices climbed. IBM misjudged how much money would move. The CEO admitted the company “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization” and conceded that “this quarter we faltered,” Axios reported.Krishna also said numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines IBM expected. This failure drove most of the shortfall, International Business Times reported.

IBM shares closed down 25.21% on July 14, 2026, the company’s steepest single-day fall since at least 1968.brunocoelhopt / Getty Images

What “capex reprioritization” means for your portfolioA company has a fixed technology budget, and when one line item gets more expensive, another line item dies.Chief information officers did not get bigger budgets in June. They got scarier hardware prices.So CIOs bought the servers and the memory first, because you cannot run an AI workload on a purchase order. Then, they pushed the software renewals and the consulting engagements into the next quarter or out of the plan entirely.Even with this, IBM’s software segment still grew 5%, with Red Hat up 11%. Although consulting was roughly flat, infrastructure fell 7%, The Motley Fool reported. The damage was concentrated, not universal. That distinction matters because IBM did not lose to a competitor; it lost to a spreadsheet.Why IBM’s fall is the validation Micron has been waiting forMicron makes high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. HBM is a stacked version of DRAM that sits directly beside an AI processor and feeds it data fast enough to keep the chip busy. Every serious AI server needs it.For most of its history, Micron was a stock that ate its own gains every few years. Prices boomed, capacity flooded in, margins collapsed, repeat.Related: Veteran analyst drops massive Micron valuation predictionIBM just handed the company evidence that this cycle is different.When enterprises let software deals that are nearly closed die rather than risk missing a memory allocation, that is not elastic demand. That is a customer base with no substitute and no patience.Micron shares reflected it immediately. The stock traded around $980.55 midday on July 14, up 4.7% from the prior close. This was after KeyBanc analyst John Vinhraised his target to $1,750, Barron’s reported.The supply math behind Micron’s pricing powerThe reason CIOs panicked in June is that the memory capacity they need was already spoken for.Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY), and Micron control more than 95%of global DRAM production.All three companies prioritized converting capacity to HBM because it earns three to five times the revenue per wafer of conventional memory, Stocks Down Under noted.Three facts investors should hold ontoThe order book is closed. Micron’s memory capacity is sold out well into 2027, and the company has secured about $100 billion in long-term customer agreements.The shortage has a stated end date, and it’s far away. On the June 24 earnings call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said market tightness is “locked in to persist beyond calendar 2027.”Prices are still climbing. KeyBanc forecasts DRAM up 15% to 20% in the third quarter and another 15% in the fourth, with HBM prices potentially more than doubling next year.That combination is why Micron’s last quarter looked the way it did. Fiscal third-quarter revenue hit $41.46 billion, up about 346% from a year earlier, with gross margin at a record 84.9%.The software stocks that fell with IBM, and whyWhen IBM warned of its business’s struggles, investors did not think it was a problem unique to IBM. Instead, they realized that other software companies would soon face the exact same troubles.Microsoft (MSFT) closed at a 1.55% drop, Oracle (ORCL) fell 2.74%, and Accenture (ACN) dropped 2.86% on July 14, according to Bloomberg. Salesforce (CRM) dropped about 4% in early trading before recovering, while Microngained 5% in the afternoon and SanDisk (SNDK) rose nearly 6%.The pattern is the trade. Money left the application layer and showed up in the hardware layer within the same session.HSBCdowngraded IBMto reduce from hold with a $191 price target, which was the sharpest bear call of the day, The Motley Fool noted.What has to stay true for the memory trade to keep workingZero-sum budgets are good for Micron only while the shortage lasts, and shortages have a well-documented habit of ending.Four things need to hold:Supply stays behind demand. New fabs in Idaho, New York, and Virginia are being built precisely to fix this, and when they ramp, the pricing argument weakens.Contract prices stick. Micron’s strategic customer agreements are take-or-pay, so customers can walk away but forfeit what they’ve committed.AI capex keeps growing. If hyperscalers pause, memory has no second buyer of that size.The legal overhang stays quiet. A June 25 class action lawsuit accuses Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix of restricting supply to inflate prices by as much as 700% since 2022.Not everyone believes the cycle broke. Michael Burry shorted Micron at $1,051.87 on July 1, noting the stock has suffered 34 drawdowns of more than 30% over the past 42 years. What investors should watch between now and July 22IBM’s full results and conference call land on July 22, and that is the next real decider event for both sides of this trade.For IBM holders, the question is simple: Did those deals slip, or did they die? Krishna needs to put a number on it on July 22, and a vague answer suggests the software drought isn’t over.For Micron holders, every delayed software deal is good news. The July 22 call will show whether June was a one-month thing or the new normal.Practical framing for both:Position size matters more than conviction here, since a 25% single-day move in a 115-year-old blue chip is a reminder that nothing is too big to reprice.Watch software peers into the July 22 results to see whether this was a one-day repricing or the start of a broader derating.Micron already trades on an assumption of extended tightness, so the risk is not that demand disappoints; it’s that supply arrives early.IBM lost $68 billion because it sold the wrong half of the AI stack. Micron sells the half that got paid first, and until new capacity shows up, that is unlikely to change.Related: Wall Street flees software plays for triple-digit chipmaker boom

Not that long ago, traveling by plane meant hours of total disconnection, with spotty or nonexistent internet as the norm rather than the exception. That era is disappearing fast, and the holdouts are running out of runway.Frontier Airlines will add SpaceX’s Starlink internet service starting in early 2027, according to CNBC. On the surface, it looks like Frontier is catching up to rivals that added Wi-Fi years ago.Look closer at the announcement and a different story appears. Frontier isn’t signing this deal alone. Four other budget carriers on three continents are signing it at the same time, and all five share the same controlling shareholder.Frontier was also one of the last U.S. carriers holding out on Wi-Fi, with former CEO Barry Biffle citing the weight that equipment would add to planes, according to CNBC.The fact that five airlines moved together, and moved now, points to a decision made well above any single airline’s management team.Frontier, Hungary’s Wizz Air, Mexico’s Volaris, Chile’s JetSmart, and the Philippines’ Cebu Pacific are installing Starlink across more than 1,000 aircraft combined, according to FlightGlobal.Every one of those airlines sits inside the portfolio of Indigo Partners, the private equity firm run by Bill Franke. Frontier’s entire 183-plane Airbus fleet will be equipped, a company spokesperson confirmed to FlightGlobal.One buyer negotiated Starlink deals for Frontier, 4 other airlinesIndigo Partners still holds a significant stake in Frontier and controls its board, with founder Franke serving as chairman, according to a company press release.Franke and other Indigo-linked investors, including George Roberts, remain among Frontier’s largest individual shareholders, the same release shows.Related: Frontier Airlines stands to benefit from Spirit’s bankruptcyThat structure explains why five airlines moved together instead of negotiating separately, giving Indigo more leverage with SpaceX than any single carrier could get alone.That matters for investors because it signals how Indigo runs its airlines as a connected system, insread of five independent bets.Aviation trade outlet PaxEx.Aero reported that Indigo Partners itself appears to have driven the selection process, negotiating across its entire airline portfolio rather than leaving each carrier to strike its own terms. Scale, not brand loyalty, is the strategy.

Frontier Airlines will bring Starlink Wi-Fi to its full 183-plane fleet in 2027 as part of a coordinated deal across five Indigo Partners-owned carriers.Douglas Sacha / Getty Images

Starlink’s free plane Wi-Fi era is endingThe more overlooked detail sits in how SpaceX is structuring the deal. PaxEx.Aero reported that Wizz Air’s own Starlink announcement in June made no mention of complimentary access, a break from SpaceX’s earlier insistence that in-flight Wi-Fi should always be free to passengers.That shift means most Frontier passengers will likely pay for connectivity once it launches, even though a Frontier spokeswoman declined to confirm pricing to CNBC.For SpaceX, it marks a pivot toward treating in-flight internet as a stand-alone revenue product rather than a loss-leading perk. The shift has implications for every airline still negotiating its own Starlink contract.Frontier shows that Wi-Fi fits larger budget airline turnaround betFrontier is layering Wi-Fi onto a broader pivot away from its no-frills roots. The carrier is also rolling out its first true first-class cabin, and new CEO Jimmy Dempsey has tied both moves to a strategy of pairing premium features with Frontier’s low base fares, according to a company statement.Wall Street is starting to notice. Susquehanna raised its price target on Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) to $7 from $4.50 on July 7, while maintaining a neutral rating, according to Yahoo Finance.More Airline Stocks:BofA sees Delta, United entering a rare airline sweet spotRaymond James makes surprising call on Delta Air LinesAfter the Chapter 11 shutdown, Spirit Airlines may make a comebackShares of Frontier, which trades as ULCC, closed near $6.48 on July 14, up sharply from a 52-week low of $3.02, according to data from TheStreet.The stock remains unprofitable, posting a trailing 12-month net loss of roughly $137 million even as revenue climbed, underscoring that investors are pricing in a turnaround that hasn’t shown up in earnings yet.Indigo model built on partnership, not just planesIndigo Partners’ approach offers a preview of where budget aviation is headed globally. Rather than each ultra-low-cost carrier fighting its own procurement battles, Franke’s firm is using shared ownership to negotiate as a bloc on everything from aircraft orders to satellite internet.That model gives smaller airlines the buying power of a major carrier without merging. As more private equity firms build multi-airline portfolios, Frontier’s Wi-Fi news may be remembered less for the internet it brings aboard than for the ownership structure that made the deal possible.Related: Alaska Airlines exits one entire international market

Gold climbed from about $2,600 per ounce in early 2025 to a record $5,589 by January 2026, setting more than 50 all-time highs in a single calendar year, the World Gold Council reported.The rally has fueled aggressive marketing by precious metals dealers, with retirement investors responding in record numbers.Gold exchange-traded fund holdings grew 801 tons in 2025, the second-strongest year on record, while bar and coin buying accelerated to a 12-year high, the World Gold Council reported in its Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025 report.For retirement savers considering a gold individual retirement account (IRA), the case for holding physical metal in a tax-advantaged account may seem straightforward at first glance.First-year gold IRA costs can quietly erase double-digit returnsA gold IRA requires three service providers that a standard brokerage account does not: a custodian, a precious metals dealer, and an IRS-approved depository vault, the U.S. Money Reserve stated.Each provider charges its own fee, with account setup running $50 to $150, annual custodian maintenance adding $75 to $300, and depository storage costing another $100 to $300.Those recurring charges, however, represent only part of the total drag on returns. The highest upfront cost is the dealer markup, the premium a dealer charges above gold’s spot price, which on standard bullion typically runs 2% to 5%, IRA Financial reported.Investors face acquisition markups ranging from 40% to 200% above spot for numismatic coins, according to a CFTC customer advisory, and one 2024 SEC enforcement action against Red Rock Secured found the firm had charged markups as high as 130% while advertising 1% to 5%. Physical gold produces zero income, while annual fees compoundUnlike dividend-paying stocks or interest-bearing bonds, gold bars and coins produce no cash flow while stored in a depository vault. Every fee charged against the account creates a direct headwind, because returns depend entirely on price appreciation over time.Annual custodian fees commonly run $75 to $300, and storage costs another $100 to $300 for flat-fee accounts, the U.S. Money Reserve confirmed. More Retirement:Vanguard drops playbook on retirement incomeVanguard warns workers losing thousands in 401(k)sFidelity’s wake-up call on Social Security, IRAs, and 401(k)sThose recurring charges compound over a multi-decade holding period, working out to roughly 0.4% to 1.2% of a $50,000 balance each year before any dealer markup or transaction cost.Selling a gold IRA is often more cumbersome than many investors expect. Selling physical metal requires coordination among the custodian, dealer, and depository, a process that takes days rather than seconds.Required minimum distributions further complicate matters for traditional gold IRA holders starting at age 73, because the custodian must appraise each metal holding before calculating the required annual withdrawal amount, according to the IRS.

Gold IRAs generate no income, while annual fees, storage costs, and liquidity challenges can steadily erode long-term retirement returns.Bloomberg Creative/Getty Images

Gold IRA withdrawals face ordinary income tax rates up to 37%Geoff Schmidt, a certified public accountant and founder of Holy Schmidt, told Moneywise that gold ETFs and gold IRAs operate under entirely separate tax frameworks despite holding the same underlying asset.”The common assumption is that a gold ETF behaves like a stock fund at tax time, with that nice 15% or 20% long-term rate. For the large physically backed funds, GLD and SLV being the obvious examples, it doesn’t,” Schmidt said.Gold ETFs backed by physical bullion fall under IRS collectibles rules, which cap long-term capital gains at 28% rather than the standard 15%-20%, according to IRS Publication 550.That ceiling, however, may still be lower than what a traditional gold IRA holder pays when taking distributions. Withdrawals from a traditional gold IRA are taxed as ordinary income, Achim von Bodman, a CFP and senior tax manager at Watter CPA, told Moneywise. Under the current federal income tax brackets, that rate can reach 37%.A Roth IRA structure is one important exception, since qualified Roth withdrawals are generally tax-free and can eliminate both the collectibles rate and ordinary income exposure altogether, Schmidt noted.Gold ETFs offer retirement exposure at a fraction of the costFor investors who want gold in a retirement portfolio without the complexity of physical custody, gold exchange-traded funds held in a traditional or Roth IRA offer a streamlined, less expensive alternative.Tanza Loudenback, a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), told SmartAsset that the layered cost structure of a gold IRA rarely justifies the exposure it delivers and that investors seeking an inflation hedge can achieve the same portfolio outcome.The fees associated with maintaining a gold IRA are usually not worth the potential benefits. There are other ways to get exposure to precious metals that can help counterbalance inflation, if you’re worried about that, and are generally more investor-friendly, like gold ETFsThe SPDR Gold MiniShares ETF has an annual expense ratio of 0.10%, and the iShares Gold Trust charges 0.25%, both far below the combined fee load of a typical gold IRA arrangement.Weighing gold IRA costs before committing retirement savingsGold’s record-setting performance has earned its place in the retirement conversation, and a well-structured allocation can serve a legitimate diversification role for long-term investors.Financial planners commonly cap precious metals exposure in a well-diversified portfolio at around 5%, a level that matches UBS Wealth Management’s mid-single-digit gold guidance and the 5% gold sleeve used in Morningstar’s 2026 Diversification Landscape test portfolio.Financial planners, including Loudenback, say gold ETFs in standard retirement accounts provide similar price exposure at much lower ongoing costs.Some retirement savers continue to choose self-directed gold IRAs because they allow direct ownership of physical gold, despite the added expense.Related: Gold IRAs conceal risks most investors never see