Colossal founder Ben Lamm explains the company’s scientific efforts to restore extinct bird species.
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Morgan Stanley resets Nvidia stock price target ahead of earnings
Nvidia reports after the market close on May 20. Morgan Stanley’s analyst Joseph Moore published his preview note on May 18. And the number at the center of his argument is one that the rest of Wall Street is, in his view, significantly underestimating.That number is $1 trillion. And whether you believe it or not determines almost everything about how you should think about Nvidia’s stock right now.Morgan Stanley raises Nvidia ahead of May 20 earningsMorgan Stanley raised its price target on Nvidia to $285 from $260 on May 18, reiterating an overweight rating and designating it the firm’s top semiconductor pick, according to Morgan Stanley. The new target is based on 22 times Morgan Stanley’s calendar year 2027 EPS estimate of $12.99. The multiple was deliberately lowered from the prior 26 times to reflect the firm’s view that Nvidia’s already dominant market share and elevated gross margins leave limited room for further multiple expansion in the near term.Moore raised his April quarter revenue estimate to $79.264 billion from $78.25 billion and adjusted EPS to $1.72 from $1.69. For the July quarter, he lifted revenue to $87.88 billion from $84.837 billion and EPS to $2.01 from $1.93. Looking further out, Morgan Stanley now models FY27 revenue of $380.591 billion with EPS of $8.61, and FY28 revenue of $587.45 billion with EPS of $13.11.The Nvidia $1 trillion data center argument and why consensus is too lowThe core of Moore’s bull case is a revenue trajectory that the rest of Wall Street is not yet pricing. Morgan Stanley estimates Nvidia will generate approximately $1.07 trillion in cumulative data center revenue across calendar years 2025 through 2027. Within that, the firm projects $884 billion of data center revenue in calendar years 2026 and 2027 alone. The Street consensus for that same two-year period sits at just $785 billion, a gap of nearly $100 billion.More Nvidia:Nvidia is losing an industry that saved it from bankruptcyNvidia CEO makes surprising admission on OpenAI and AnthropicGoldman Sachs just found a reason to like Nvidia stock againMoore’s math works as follows. Calendar year 2025 included approximately $25 billion of legacy Hopper compute and another roughly $30 billion in networking, leaving approximately $155 billion in Blackwell and Rubin data center revenue for that year. That implies $845 billion across 2026 and 2027 before factoring in newer product categories, including Groq rack-scale inference, standalone CPUs, and ICMS, which Moore described as “substantial upside” on top of the core figure.Moore expects the May 20 earnings call to be a catalyst for consensus to move toward Morgan Stanley’s estimates as Nvidia reaffirms visibility into those numbers, including a discussion of the supply constraints it is managing. He identified three specific bottlenecks: powered shell availability, leading-edge wafer capacity, and DRAM.How Nvidia’s supply positioning protects its margin despite rising costsA significant section of the Morgan Stanley note addresses cost inflation. As of Nvidia’s most recent 10-K, the company held $95 billion in purchase commitments and $21 billion in inventory. Moore argued that if those commitments reflect 75% gross margin cost of goods sold, they represent sufficient supply to cover approximately $464 billion in revenue, effectively locking in the economics for much of what Nvidia intends to ship over the next 18 months before cost inflation becomes a meaningful headwind.That pre-purchasing strategy, Moore argued, gives Nvidia a structural advantage over competitors developing custom AI chips or merchant ASIC alternatives. Those rivals will either face greater margin pressure or be forced to raise prices to offset input cost increases, while Nvidia’s supply chain commitments shield it from the same dynamic in the near term.The one acknowledged margin headwind is the Rubin architecture ramp. Launching a new architecture always carries higher initial costs, and Morgan Stanley is now modeling gross margins declining to 72.7% by fiscal year 2028, down from above 75% currently. The firm views that as a manageable compression rather than a structural deterioration.
Morgan Stanley went into Nvidia earnings week with a specific claim about the next three years that puts it nearly $100 billion above Street consensus.Maule/Getty Images
The three debates Morgan Stanley says Nvidia earnings will addressMoore identified three investor debates the May 20 call is expected to move: market share versus ASIC alternatives, gross margin trajectory, and Vera Rubin readiness. On market share, Moore remained optimistic that Nvidia offers the best total cost of ownership across AI workloads, but conceded the debate is “difficult to disprove” while compute remains supply constrained. He does not expect the earnings call to fully resolve this question in either direction.On Rubin readiness, the note was direct: Vera Rubin is on schedule, with some normal startup challenges that could push rack deliveries a few weeks beyond initial estimates. Morgan Stanley sees no disruptions and expects strength in both Rubin and Blackwell demand through the second half of 2026.Moore also offered a framework for how to think about Nvidia’s valuation relative to these debates. He estimated Nvidia could exit 2027 generating approximately $16 per share in annualized earnings power. A $16 perpetuity discounted at 8% with 1% terminal growth produces a present value of approximately $229, close to where the stock recently traded at $225. His interpretation: Investors are currently pricing in a significant probability that margin compression, market share loss, or a general slowdown in AI spending will prevent any meaningful long-term earnings growth. That is the bear case embedded in the current price.Key figures from Morgan Stanley’s May 18 Nvidia note:Price target: $285, raised from $260; overweight, top semiconductor pick; analyst Joseph Moore; based on 22x CY27 EPS of $12.99Expected Q1 beat: Revenue approximately $3 billion above consensus; Q2 guide approximately $4 billion above consensusApril quarter estimates: Revenue $79.264 billion, GM 75.0%, EPS $1.72; July quarter: revenue $87.88 billion, GM 75.1%, EPS $2.01FY27 estimates: Revenue $380.591 billion, EPS $8.61; FY28: revenue $587.45 billion, GM 72.7%, EPS $13.11Data center revenue projection: $1.07 trillion CY25-CY27; $884 billion CY26-CY27 versus Street consensus of $785 billionSupply positioning: $95 billion in purchase commitments, $21 billion in inventory as of the 10-K; covers approximately $464 billion in revenue at 75% gross marginBull and bear cases: Bull case $330, bear case $160; present value of $16 perpetuity at 8% discount rate and 1% terminal growth equals approximately $229
Source: Morgan Stanley May 18 note
What investors should watch when Nvidia reports on May 20The most important output from the May 20 report will not be whether Nvidia beats the April quarter estimates. Moore expects it to. The question is what management says about the July quarter guide and, more importantly, the visibility they provide into the 2026 and 2027 data center revenue trajectory that sits at the center of Morgan Stanley’s bull case.If Nvidia’s management explicitly reaffirms that $1 trillion in cumulative data center revenue is achievable across 2025 through 2027, and if they provide detail on supply constraint management that validates Morgan Stanley’s supply chain framework, the gap between Street consensus at $785 billion and Morgan Stanley’s $884 billion estimate for calendar years 2026 and 2027 should begin to close. That revision process is what Moore describes as “a positive step toward a stock rerating.”If instead management is cautious on forward visibility, the market share debate intensifies, or Rubin ramp concerns surface that go beyond the “normal startup issues” Morgan Stanley is already modeling, the $229 present value floor may prove difficult to hold. Moore’s note is ultimately a statement that Nvidia’s current price reflects extreme pessimism about its long-term earnings power, and that the May 20 earnings call is the next opportunity for the company to begin correcting that misperception.Related: Keybanc sets jaw-dropping Nvidia stock price target before earnings
2026 US Fund Fee Study
How Active ETFs Are Reshaping Fund Fees
Morningstar’s 2026 US Fund Fee Study showed that many of the broad trends from prior years continued in 2025: There were more fee cuts than fee hikes.Investors again overwhelmingly preferred cheap and passive funds to pricey, actively managed funds.Semibundled and unbundled share classes remained a favorite for advisors, as those service fee arrangements make room for the cost of advice.Other intriguing stories were brewing under the surface, however. Ripples observed in prior reports have now become a wave. Vanguard’s low-fee superiority finally met its match. Investors paid the same for Charles Schwab’s low-cost lineup as they did for Vanguard’s in 2025. Exchange-traded fund investors still pay less than mutual fund investors, but the gap continues to narrow. New funds are expensive, and cheap launches are increasingly rare as the economics of operating low-cost funds are challenging.The full report covers all of these trends and much more of what transpired across fund fees last year. Below, I dig into how active ETFs are beginning to reshape the fund fee landscape. Download: 2026 US Fund Fee StudyHeadline Fees Continue to March LowerInvestors saved nearly $6.8 billion in estimated fund expenses last year. Any fee decline is a big win for investors because fees compound over time and diminish returns.Every broad measure of US fund fees declined again in 2025. Morningstar’s database of US open-end mutual funds and ETFs reported the asset-weighted average expense ratio was 0.32% in 2025, a 5.60% decline from 2024. The asset-weighted average best represents the costs borne by fund investors because it approximates what investors paid in fees, on average, for the funds they invested in. For example, the asset-weighted average expense ratio for active US equity funds was 0.58% in 2025, versus 1.00% when calculating an equal-weighted average for this group. Funds with expense ratios above 1% accounted for a small portion of assets invested in active US equity funds at the end of 2025. New Fund Fees Tell a Different StoryAsset-weighted average fees reflect where investors allocate, while the equal-weighted average reflects industry trends. There are two industry trends evident when observing new fund launches and their costs: ETFs continue to be the preferred vehicle for investors and providers alike.Relatively pricey launches offer better business opportunities than cheaper funds.Active ETFs Are Setting the TrendCombining both these trends means the proliferation of actively managed ETFs. We’ll see how investors decide to allocate across the vast array of new options, but one thing is clear right now: Asset managers can’t launch enough of them. There was a tsunami of active ETF launches in 2025. Of the 1,131 ETFs birthed last year, 950 were actively managed. Many of these “active” ETFs aren’t all that active, however. There were some new low-cost ETFs managed by fundamental active managers, like JPMorgan Active High Yield JPHY and Vanguard Short Duration Bond VSDB, but the vast majority of new launches test waters not usually charted by large incumbents. Smaller ETF providers, enabled by white-label ETF firms, have flooded the market with a wide range of obscure ETFs. Such ETFs have novel risk/reward profiles, and they usually don’t have to bow to competition from the largest ETF managers. Vanguard, iShares, and State Street do not offer funds in the trading—leveraged equity Morningstar Category. State Street and iShares offer derivative-income ETFs, but their presence in that category is limited. Funds in these categories tend to charge higher fees than those in more traditional stock or bond categories. Since fees are a major source of asset manager revenue, it’s not hard to see why some firms are gravitating toward these higher-cost segments. It’s difficult to find success in ETFs, but finding success in relatively expensive ETFs can mean serious windfalls for their sponsors. These categories have not experienced the fee competition long observed elsewhere. At least not yet. Which Active ETFs Will Find Success? Active ETFs face an uphill battle. While they could provide a lifeline to mutual fund managers that may be bleeding assets, there is no fighting broader trends. Investors have overwhelmingly preferred cheap and predominantly passive funds. Porting a mutual fund strategy into an ETF or tacking on an ETF share class may spur interest for a time, but other factors will eventually determine a fund’s staying power. Performance matters, of course, but fees also matter. Trends show that for active funds to cut it, they have to be cheap. History shows that cheap funds endure. We will see if the emergence of relatively expensive, novel ETFs is enough to reverse the long-term trend of investors paying less for their funds year after year. For now, I’m skeptical.
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Evercore strategists say as risks build for stocks, less-protected investors need more of these “all-weather” outperforming stocks.
Another travel agency loses license, 200 travelers stranded
Multiple travel agencies around the world have had to shut down abruptly since the start of 2026.A few recent names include Tango Travel in Iceland, British firms Vegas Vacations and Great Little Escapes and Unitravel Kft and Travel Teachers in Hungary.While lack of funds due to the low consumer sentiment and the spiking cost of airfare are usually more than enough to tank a company that started out with the best ambitions, there are also instances of outright scammimg.In April 2026, the entire men’s basketball team of the University of Dallas was left without a planned trip to compete in the United Kingdom after Boston-based GoPlay Sports Tours LLC accepted two payments of $30,000 and then stopped replying to their questions about what was supposed to be an organized tour.AVG Travels shuts down as travelers left with canceled tripsIn two separate cases in the Canadian province of British Columbia, what were presented to be travel agencies to customers ended up getting closed down by investigators after receiving multiple customer complaints of paying for invalid tickets and hotel bookings.AVG Travels, a Melbourne-based travel company advertised cheap package deals to Australian and New Zealand customers, sent over 200 travelers an email saying that the trips they booked were “under review” over “operational scheduling adjustments.”Related: Tour company goes into liquidation and cancels all tripsWhile many of the customers report being unable to reach the company since the email, a website that remains up states that it was launched out of Vietnam in 2012 and established a separate branch in Melbourne in 2015.Some recent travel company bankruptcies:Great Little Escapes: The British travel company filed for bankruptcy after running up losses of £77,000 ($103,000 USD).Unitravel Kft: The Budapest-based tour operator blamed “new, foreign companies enter[ing] Hungary with huge financial resources” for a financial breakdown that led to it having to suddenly cancel trips that in some cases were already halfway through.MixxTravel: The Malmö-based travel company was forced to cancel trips and wind down operations after being declared bankrupt by a judge in August 2025.Tango Travel: The Icelandic tour operator went bust in November 2025 after major partner Play Airlines filed for bankruptcy and stopped operations a month earlier as many of the packages it sold included tickets from the defunct airline.New Era Travel: Ceased operations in November 2025: The Hampshire-based tour operator took British travelers to Spain, Australia, and Las Vegas, among other destinations.The company markets what it describes as “premium all-inclusive Asia tours to popular destinations including Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Japan.”While AVG Travels put out a statement saying that it was “engaging with all affected travelers to provide fair and appropriate resolutions,” the abrupt trip cancelations left hundreds of customers set to depart in the coming days scrambling to contact the company for information or refunds only to be unable to reach any representatives.
AVG Travels markets trip to various Asian destinations to Australian and Kiwi travelers.Image source: Shutterstock
AVG Travels promises refunds but customers struggle to get in touch”This experience has crushed our faith in handing over money to others up-front for this kind of thing,” Sam Chisholm, a traveler based in Perth who spent $3,500 AUD on an 11-day holiday to China, said to a local outlet.More Travel News:Airline to launch unusual new flight to Cayman Islands from the U.S.What you can expect at Disneyland’s new ‘World of Frozen’Unexpected country is most luxurious travel destination for 2026U.S. government issues strange warning on Ireland travelThe situation has been reported to the Council of Australian Tour Operators (CATO), which has suspended the travel agency’s membership after learning of the situation, and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).”On becoming aware of complaints against AVG Travels this week, we moved quickly to review their accreditation status,” CATO General Manager Mira Yates said in a statement. “That review has resulted in the immediate suspension of AVG Travels’ CATO accreditation.”Related: Another low-cost airline files for bankruptcy protection
French Open 2026: How To Watch, Stream All The Action At Roland Garros
French Open 2026: How to watch and stream all the action at Roland Garros and watch Coco Gauff, Jannik Sinner, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.
Berkshire doubles down on Alphabet under Greg Abel
The hardest mistakes to fix are the ones you spent years explaining away.For most of us, that means the job we should have taken, the house we should have bought, or the 401(k) match we let roll past unclaimed.For Warren Buffett, it was Google.The Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) co-founder spent nearly two decades telling shareholders he understood Alphabet’s (GOOGL) business well enough through GEICO’s ad spending to call it “an extraordinary business” with “some aspects of a natural monopoly,” according to Fortune. He simply refused to buy the stock.His late partner Charlie Munger went further at the 2019 annual meeting, saying he felt “like a horse’s ass for not identifying Google better,” according to 24/7 Wall St.I have read enough Berkshire transcripts to know the regret was real, but the discipline was real too. Tech sat outside Buffett’s circle of competence, and he kept watching from the sidelines while AI rewired the rest of the economy.That stance officially ended this quarter. Berkshire’s first 13-F filing under new chief executive Greg Abel showed the conglomerate more than tripled its Alphabet position in the first three months of 2026, building a roughly $17 billion stake as of March 31, according to a regulatory disclosure reviewed by Yahoo Finance.
Greg Abel triples Berkshire’s Alphabet stake in his first quarterPhoto by Bloomberg on Getty Images
What Berkshire’s new boss did with $17 billionThe disclosure covers stock activity through March 31, the first full quarter with Abel officially in the corner office. He succeeded Buffett on January 1, 2026.Berkshire’s Alphabet share count rose from 17.85 million at the end of 2025 to nearly 58 million by the end of March, a 224% increase in roughly three months, according to a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.Fund manager buys and sellsCathie Wood buys $2.5 million of tumbling megacap stockWarren Buffett dumped 77% of Amazon to buy surging media stockCathie Wood buys $11 million of tumbling megacap tech stockThe position now ranks among Berkshire’s seven largest equity holdings, according to The Motley Fool.At current prices, the same stake is worth closer to $23 billion, said The Motley Fool.For context, Berkshire still holds about 228 million Apple (AAPL) shares, a roughly $58 billion position that remained untouched in the quarter, “a departure from the selling trend that had continued for nearly two years under the previous management,” reported Yahoo Finance.Abel did not just buy Alphabet. He also stopped trimming Apple. Both moves point toward a willingness to hold large tech bets in a portfolio Buffett spent years pulling back from equities.Related: Berkshire’s stunning slide spells trouble for new CEO Greg AbelWhy Greg Abel sees opportunity in Alphabet right nowThe simplest explanation is that the numbers caught up to the thesis.Alphabet’s first-quarter 2026 results, released April 29, showed consolidated revenue up 22% year over year to $109.9 billion, marking the company’s highest quarterly growth rate since 2022, according to CNBC. Google Cloud revenue rose 63% to $20 billion in the same period, beating Wall Street estimates of $15.3 billion, said CNBC.Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Alphabet and Google, told analysts on the earnings call that the company’s “AI investments and full-stack approach are lighting up every part of the business,” according to a regulatory filing from Alphabet. Pichai added that Gemini Enterprise paid users grew 40% quarter over quarter and Google Cloud backlog nearly doubled to more than $460 billion.When I ran my analysis against the cloud, search, and YouTube segment numbers, the AI cannibalization fear that hung over the stock for two years simply did not show up in the data. Search and Other ad revenue grew 19% year over year, per Alphabet’s earnings filing with the SEC.Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Alphabet “further validates” its position as a leading AI beneficiary, with “tangible results across advertising and cloud,” according to Stocktwits. Oppenheimer’s Jason Helfstein raised the stock’s price target to $445 from $425 and kept an Outperform rating, said Stock Analysis.Here is how Berkshire’s Alphabet position has built up over four quarters:Q3 2025: Initial stake of 17.85 million shares worth roughly $4.3 billion, according to CNBC.Q4 2025: Position held at 17.85 million shares, valued at $5.6 billion at year-end, according to Yahoo Finance.Q1 2026: Stake rose to nearly 58 million shares, a 224% jump in three months, said Yahoo Finance.Current value: Roughly $23 billion at recent market prices, said The Motley Fool.What this Berkshire move means for your portfolioThe reason this filing matters for the average investor is conviction, not size.Berkshire is sitting on $397.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Treasuries as of March 31, eliminated 16 stock positions outright in the quarter, and trimmed banks, industrials, and consumer-facing names. Abel cleared out everything from Visa (V) to UnitedHealth (UNH) to Domino’s (DPZ).He chose to add aggressively to one name. That name is Alphabet.For a typical 401(k) holder, the practical takeaway is simpler than the trade. If the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven at roughly 26 times forward earnings is also the one stock Abel is buying with both hands, said CNBC, then existing index exposure through a broad S&P 500 fund or QQQ ETF is doing more work in the portfolio right now than most readers realize.Alphabet’s annual revenue crossed $400 billion in 2025 for the first time, said Alphabet. Annual earnings hit $132.17 billion, a 32% increase, per Stock Analysis.The deeper signal is what Abel is not doing. He is not parking cash and waiting for a recession. He is not following the previous regime’s playbook of pulling capital out of stocks. He is making a single concentrated bet on the AI infrastructure leader that Buffett spent two decades wishing he had bought.For a chief executive whose career was built running utility companies, that is the kind of move that announces a new chapter.What to watch next is whether Berkshire keeps buying through Q2, whether Abel adds another Magnificent Seven name, and whether GOOGL holds the gains that put it within reach of the highest analyst price target on the Street, $515 from Citizens, according to Benzinga.If Abel keeps buying, the most discussed missed opportunity in modern investing has officially been corrected, and the new Berkshire is willing to pay for AI exposure at a scale the old one never would.Buffett would probably tell you he should have done it himself.Related: Berkshire CEO has sobering message for tech stock investors
CoreWeave’s stock falls as new Google cloud venture may signal more competition ahead
A joint venture between Google and Blackstone isn’t “immediately problematic” for CoreWeave, but rather a sign that the market could get more crowded, according to a Bernstein analyst.
Why Oil Price Spikes Cause Recessions But High Prices Don’t
Oil price spikes cause recessions; stable high prices don’t. Here’s why the distinction matters for your business planning in 2026