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Nvidia’s AI boom revives a Warren Buffett warning for investors
Millions of Americans own Nvidia (NVDA) stock indirectly through retirement accounts and index funds, which means that a lot more than the fortunes of individual tech investors is riding on the AI boom.
Nvidia’s rise has been the biggest catalyst for the broader market, but a warning issued by Warren Buffett, now the chairman emeritus of Berkshire Hathaway, in 1999 offers a timely reminder that transformative technology doesn’t automatically make every leading company a great investment at any price.
Buffett’s concern during the dot-com era was not whether technology would change society. It was whether investors could identify which companies would preserve a “truly durable competitive advantage”.
Buffett’s warning is especially relevant now because Nvidia has already delivered exceptional results. Since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, the company’s annual revenue has grown from roughly $27 billion to more than $215 billion, according to Seeking Alpha data, while its market value has expanded from about $420 billion to roughly $5.5 trillion.
For Nvidia shareholders today, the unresolved question is: how much of the company’s current AI economics can endure as competition and customer alternatives grow.
Nvidia’s AI dominance has revived Warren Buffett’s decades-old warning about technology investingJOHANNES EISELE / Getty Images
Buffett’s warning was about picking winners, not doubting technology
Buffett’s message from his 1999 shareholder letter was more nuanced than a simple warning against technology stocks.
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He and longtime Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger fully accepted that new technologies could reshape the economy, writing that “our society will be transformed by their products and services.” The harder problem was deciding which companies would still command exceptional economics years later.
Interestingly, Buffett said Berkshire could not confidently identify which technology businesses possessed a “truly durable competitive advantage,” because rapidly changing industries made long-term competitive positions unusually difficult to predict.
When other investors believed they could make those calls, Buffett wrote that Berkshire would “neither envy nor emulate them.”
His concern was therefore not whether technological progress was real, but whether investors were confusing a powerful trend with certainty about the eventual winners.
Rising share prices could make that mistake even easier, particularly when, as Buffett put it, investors had “substituted hope for rationality.”
Nvidia has already answered one part of that old debate.
AI can produce enormous profits for individual companies. What remains unresolved is the part Buffett cared about most, which is whether Nvidia’s current advantages can remain durable enough to justify expectations embedded in its stock for years to come.
Nvidia has already proved the AI boom can produce real profits
Nvidia is different from other companies caught up in past tech booms in that its rise has been backed by a tremendous expansion in actual business performance.
As I mentioned earlier, around ChatGPT’s November 2022 launch, Nvidia was worth nearly $422 billion and had annual revenue of just under $27 billion, including about $15 billion from data centers.
By fiscal 2026, revenue had surged to $215.9 billion, roughly eight times fiscal 2023 levels. The acceleration has continued: Nvidia generated $96.2 billion in its latest quarter alone, with data centers contributing $89 billion.
In other words, one quarter of data center revenue now represents almost six times what that business produced in the full fiscal year around ChatGPT’s debut.
The stock has reflected that transformation.
Nvidia’s market value has expanded to roughly $5.5 trillion, up about 13-fold from late 2022, while shares remain near record highs. Moreover, Morgan Stanley recently restored Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick and maintained a $300 price target as reported by Seeking Alpha.
The deeper reason for that dominance goes beyond GPUs.
Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem, built over nearly two decades and used by millions of developers, makes its hardware deeply embedded in how AI systems are built and deployed. That among other things gives Nvidia perhaps the strongest current case for the kind of durable competitive advantage Buffett said was so difficult to identify in fast-changing technology markets.
Buffett’s old warning now sits at the center of the AI trade
Nvidia’s rise has shown that the AI boom can create extraordinary sales, profits and shareholder wealth.
Interestingly, Buffett’s stance on technology also evolved when he believed the economics were durable enough.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began scooping up shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) in the third quarter of 2025, a move Buffett later said was his idea after years of acknowledging that Berkshire had missed Google’s rise.
The initial stake was worth about $4.3 billion, and by June 2026 Berkshire had increased its Alphabet holding by 83%, and its stake had grown to be worth roughly $37.8 billion as reported by Reuters, making it the conglomerate’s third-largest stock position.
Additionally, Buffett’s 1999 lesson was never that a transformative technology should be ignored but was more about the fact that investors still need to separate a powerful technological shift from the harder question of which companies can preserve superior economics over time.
That question now matters beyond Nvidia. AI-related companies have become a major force inside the S&P 500, hyperscalers are preparing to spend about $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next year, and Bain estimates the industry may need more than $4.2 trillion in new revenue over five years to support the infrastructure being built.
Nvidia currently has strong evidence on its side.
Explosive sales growth, a dominant AI platform and an entrenched CUDA ecosystem. And its roughly $5.5 trillion valuation certainly assumes that a meaningful portion of those advantages can survive growing competition, changing chip economics and customer efforts to build alternatives.
That does not make Nvidia a repeat of the dot-com bubble. It makes Buffett’s framework more relevant.
The real question is no longer whether AI will change the world. It is whether Nvidia can remain one of the companies that captures the economics after that change is complete.
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Amazon’s $25 smart solar spotlights offer color-changing customization for the holidays
TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.
Why we love this deal
Unless you want your house to look spooky year-round, outdoor lighting is essential for your home’s exterior. It makes navigating the sidewalks and porch stairs safer at night, but it also improves the overall ambiance of your yard. If you love to show off your festive spirit during the holidays, it’s not uncommon to add another layer of colorful string lights to the mix. Normally, practical outdoor lights and decorative lighting are two separate things. However, if you get smart color-changing lights, you can customize the color and brightness via your smartphone whenever the mood strikes.
The Linkind Smart Solar Spotlights are great for everyday use as well as the holidays. For even more convenience, they have a solar-powered design, so you don’t have to worry about finding extension cords or spare outlets. With a discount of 17%, you can snag the two-pack of versatile solar lights for only $25.
Linkind Smart Solar Spotlights, $25 (was $30) at Amazon
Courtesy of Amazon
Shop at Amazon
Why do shoppers love it?
Over 6,000 shoppers have rated these smart color-changing outdoor lights a perfect five stars, so you can have peace of mind that they’re up to the challenge of your lighting needs. One standout feature of these bright spotlights is the built-in solar panels. They use advanced technology for improved charging and energy savings, providing up to 14 hours of light each night. Most solar lights will automatically turn on at dusk, and these have that option, but since they’re paired to a smart app, you can also set a personalized schedule.
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The customization of these color-changing solar lights is what really sets them apart. Via the app, you can choose from 16 million colors to illuminate your yard like a beautiful rainbow. For Halloween, you can opt for a classic orange and purple, and switch it to red and green around Christmastime. There are even 43 lighting presets to choose from, so you can have the lights dance to the beat of music, eerily flicker in phantom mode, or go for an icy blue winter wonderland scene. If you buy multiple sets of these solar lights, you can also create groups for an even more magical lighting display.
Details to know
Power supply: Solar power.
Are the lights waterproof? Yes, they have an IP67 water-resistance rating.
Do they have motion detection? No.
One shopper wrote, “The app is great and makes it easy to change light colors. Can’t wait to incorporate the various color themes into holiday decor.” Another reviewer raved, “The light is super adjustable for color and brightness and really helped our Halloween decorations stand out in an area where I didn’t want to run an extension cord.”
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The Linkind Smart Solar Spotlights make a great addition to any yard with a solar-powered design and customizable colors. While they’re 17% off, you can add them to your home’s exterior for less.
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Redfin finds record housing market change as buyers gain power
Homebuyers continue to gain leverage in a housing market that has been tilted against them for multiple years, but the shift is showing up in a far more complicated way than a nationwide collapse in home prices would.
According to a recent Redfin report, 21.1% of active U.S. listings had a price cut during the four weeks ending Sept. 20, the highest September share in its records. At the same time, bidding wars have faded, homes are lingering longer, and Redfin describes the current market as the strongest buyer’s market on record.
For buyers, that could mean more room to negotiate on price, closing costs, repairs, or mortgage-rate buydowns. Redfin says nearly 50% of homebuyers are already receiving some form of seller concession.
However, that national headline masks an important wrinkle.
Price cuts have risen only modestly from 19.8% a year earlier. Instead of consistently cutting prices, many homeowners appear to be pricing more realistically from the start, delaying listings or pulling homes that fail to attract acceptable offers.
That means buyers have more power, but sellers have not capitulated. The market is rebalancing through negotiation, patience, and selective pricing instead of a broad price crash.
Buyers have more leverage, but sellers are changing strategy, too
The most critical part of that change is that buyers now have enough alternatives to compel sellers to make concessions earlier in the process.
Redfin’s data show the share of listings with a price drop increased from 19.8% last year to 21.1% this September.
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That is a record for the month, but the increase is surprisingly small given how buyer-friendly the market has become. Later in the report, Redfin’s chart shows the price-cut rate moving from 18.8% in 2022 to 17.9% in 2023, 19.0% in 2024, 19.8% in 2025, and 21.1% this year.
That’s an interesting point to consider because a buyer’s market is typically expected to produce much larger markdowns.
Instead, Redfin says some owners continue to keep homes off the market, delist when bids fall short, or price closer to current conditions from day one.
To me, that is the more critical signal. Sellers are adjusting their behavior before a listing becomes distressed.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said sellers who move homes quickly are “getting savvier about pricing right from day one,” while those that are reliant on outdated comparable sales or hoping for bidding wars risk seeing listings go stale.
For buyers, the implications are obvious. Negotiating power is real, but the best opportunities may increasingly come from stale listings, concessions, and seller-paid financing rather than dramatic headline price collapses.
Redfin says 21.1% of U.S. sellers cut asking prices in September.Smith Collection/Gado / Getty Images
The housing market is splitting sharply by city
The national average is also hiding an unusually wide geographic divide.
In Denver, 30.9% of sellers cut their asking price, the highest share among the 50 major metros Redfin analyzed. Indianapolis followed at 29.9%, while San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin all exceeded 26%.
Those Texas markets are among the strongest buyer’s markets in the country, with more than twice as many sellers as buyers.
Sellers in those markets are competing directly for a smaller pool of buyers, giving house hunters more leverage on price and terms.
At the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco had the lowest price-cut rate at just 9.6%. Redfin attributes that strength in part to AI-driven wealth, saying buyers there are competing for homes instead of sellers competing for buyers. Newark, Chicago, New York, and Miami also had relatively low shares of price reductions.
What stands out to me is how little sense it now makes to describe the United States as having one housing market.
The same national forces, mortgage rates above 7%, weak affordability, and cautious demand, are producing very different outcomes depending on local supply, employment, and wealth creation.
For buyers, it means national statistics are becoming less useful without metro-level context. A buyer in Austin may have negotiating power that simply does not exist in San Francisco.
That split might widen further if technology-driven wealth continues supporting a handful of expensive markets while inventory builds elsewhere.
The real homebuying reset is happening in expectations, not just prices
The deeper shift in Redfin’s report is psychological.
For years, many homeowners could effectively anchor their expectations to the extraordinary housing market of 2021, as reported by The Washington Post, when low mortgage rates and fierce competition made aggressive asking prices easier to defend.
Redfin says that approach is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
Mortgage rates remain above 7%, buyers have more options, and homes that are priced too aggressively can sit long enough to lose momentum. As a consequence, Redfin’s guidance to sellers is unusually direct, which means pricing correctly from the beginning might now matter more than leaving room to negotiate later.
That shift gives buyers another source of leverage.
Redfin says homes sitting on the market for more than a month may justify offers below asking, while nearly half of buyers are already receiving concessions such as money toward repairs, closing costs, or mortgage-rate buydowns.
The key takeaway is that a buyer’s market does not necessarily require a national plunge in home prices.
It can emerge through longer selling times, weaker bidding wars, more concessions, and sellers accepting realistic prices earlier.
That is why I would view the 21.1% price-cut rate as only part of the story. The bigger change is that sellers can no longer assume buyers will meet them wherever they set the price.
For households trying to buy, that is meaningful progress. For sellers, it is a warning that the market has moved on from the conditions that defined the pandemic-era housing boom.
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