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Election Day beckons, and there’s a November Surprise. Democrats and their media enablers were outraged that Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens offered a last-minute endorsement of Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Abdul-boosting journalists sounded like MS NOW host Jacob Soboroff, who denounced Rogers for “the incredible amount of Islamophobia and bigotry that has been put forward in this race, including by him himself.”Or his fellow MS NOW host Joe Scarborough, who bitterly tweeted: “Today, Haley Stevens endorsed Donald Trump’s most savage policies—the brutalizing of Hispanics, the killing of US citizens in American streets, the launching of endless wars, the gutting of Michigander’s health care, his war on civil rights, higher gas prices, more expensive groceries, less health care, and endless corruption. A vote for Mike Rogers is a vote for Donald Trump. End of story.”The New York Times first went after Stevens on Saturday in an article headlined “Why Haley Stevens Can’t Stop Talking About Abdul El-Sayed,” in which Times reporter Reid Epstein referred to as “Dr. El-Sayed” 24 times in the article. The paper treated the Stevens turnaround with a flurry of campaign stories gathered under the blunt headline, “Democratic Senate Primary Loser Endorses Republican in Michigan.” Loser! The Free Press reminded readers on Monday that two years ago in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin welcomed in Liz Cheney and the Democrats held up signs reading “Country Over Party.” The parties love to hug a defector, but that “country over party” line only goes one way. If you leave the Democrats, you’re just a cynical “traitor.” On NBC’s Saturday Night Live, fake-news anchor Michael Che mocked Ted Cruz for suggesting a Senator El-Sayed could endanger people’s lives, and then the comedian joked “Then he went back to the Senate to cut health care and food stamps.” Then came the anti-Israel joke: “This week, a record number of people voted in Israel’s election, which is great to see regardless of if you’re on the right side, or the left side, or the genocide.”Speaking of political comedy, Alex Christy found the weeknight late-night shows devoted 87 percent of their jokes about Senate candidates to the Republicans.  The few jokes they made about Democrats were gentle, except a couple about Maine’s Troy Jackson having kids with his second cousin. Ronny Chieng at Comedy Central joked: “Troy Jackson has been elected senator in Mississippi.” Jimmy Fallon used an actress for routines mocking Susan Collins AND Darline Graham.Finally, the network Sunday shows energetically downplayed the “Decoy Dan” Sullivan scandal in Alaska. David Becker on CBS said both sides do it: “We’ve seen Elon Musk bankroll Cornel West’s presidential campaign in 2024.”Trevor Ault on ABC noted “reporting by The New York Times allegedly claimed that the Peltola campaign recruited that second Dan Sullivan to get on the ballot to try to siphon some votes away from the incumbent.” He said “pretty much all the legal experts that we spoke to said it would not be illegal to recruit another Dan Sullivan to join the ballot. He added” it doesn’t seem to really be swinging the needle a ton…they’re not really treating this as a massive scandal.”Enjoy the podcast on video below. The audio is here. 

This looks like a big blue wave — maybe a huge one. That’s no cause for despair just yet. But brace yourselves, because a bumpy ride might be coming.

In a surprising turn of events, Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens revoked her endorsement for Abdul El-Sayed, instead supporting El-Sayed’s rival, Mike Rogers. (RELATED: A Time for Choosing: Reagan’s Warning for Republicans and Democrats in 2026)

I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today. https://t.co/pQgfSBuhOJ
— Haley Stevens (@HaleyforMI) November 1, 2026

The Spectator P.M. Podcast hosts Madelynn Gondy, Ellie Gardey Holmes, and Lyrah Margo discuss Stevens’ shocking switch and how it reveals a deeper issue within the Democratic Party. They also discuss a viral video from a high school teacher who shared her student’s poorly written responses about The Great Gatsby, highlighting the public school system’s major education issue. (READ MORE: Abdul El-Sayed: A Muslim Brotherhood Puppet and a Grave National Security Threat)
Tune in to hear their discussion!

Listen to the Spectator P.M. Podcast on Spotify.

Watch the Spectator P.M. Podcast on Rumble.

If you had asked me over the last few months about the Republicans’ chances in the midterm elections, I would have told you I am cautiously optimistic, but ask me a week out, and I will have a better answer. Election day is now upon us, and while I cannot be certain of what will happen, I am positive it will not be a blue wave. I still think Republicans can pull off something that has not happened in nearly 25 years and maintain power in both chambers of Congress while also holding the presidency. Of course, this relies on one thing, and that one thing is the American voter.
The seeds are there for Republicans to hold Congress: favorable new electoral maps, a growing economy, and polls that undervalue Republican voters. The biggest threat to victory is not the Democrats; it is Republican voters deciding to stay home. Let’s dive into the numbers.
Starting with the Senate, the race is tight. Republicans hold a 53–47 majority. Democrats need to flip four seats to regain the majority. In Texas, Ken Paxton (R) is locked in a dead heat with state Rep. James Talarico (D) over Sen. John Cornyn’s seat. The University of Houston’s Hobby School surveyed 2,000 likely Texas voters between October 10-14 and found Talarico at 48 percent, Paxton at 46 percent, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent, and 3 percent undecided. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1993.
In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) is running again for the open Senate seat, this time against Abdul El-Sayed (D). In his 2024 Senate run, Rogers lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin by just 19,000 votes. The Real Clear Politics average shows El-Sayed ahead 48.8 percent to 45.6 percent. However, an Insider Advantage poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted from October 21-22 had El-Sayed up 47.2 percent to 46 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, but this race is close.
Then there is Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is running against state Rep. Josh Turek (D) for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R). The Cook Political Report now rates the race a toss-up. Emerson has Hinson up 47 percent to 45 percent, while Fox News has Turek ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008.
I have not even begun to discuss Alaska, Maine, Kansas, or South Carolina yet, but for the sake of brevity, they are all toss-ups, seven in total.
If Democrats flip only three Senate seats, the chamber will be split 50–50; Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote would keep Republicans in the majority, but it would open the door to negotiations for a power-sharing agreement, which has not happened since the 117th Congress. In other words, Democrats need to win nearly every close race to take full control of the Senate, and six of them are in states Trump carried in 2024. President Trump also won one elector in Maine due to the state’s Congressional District Method
When it comes to the House, Fox News predicts it is already over for the Republicans. To take the majority in the House of Representatives, you need 218 seats. Fox News projects 223 seats for the Democrats, 195 for the Republicans, and 17 toss-ups. According to Fox, even if Republicans take all 17 toss-ups, they will be 6 seats short of the majority.
Let’s dig into the lean-Democrat seats, starting with the seats Republicans could lose.
Republicans previously held two open seats in the lean-Democrat section: Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ-1) and Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC-11). Without incumbency, the Arizona seat is vulnerable, especially since Schweikert has won by slim margins in the past. Edwards’s seat (R-NC-11), formerly held by Rep. Mark Meadows, is only vulnerable because Edwards dropped out late in the campaign due to allegations of sexual harassment, leaving Republican nominee Jennifer Balkcom to run a short-notice campaign. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA-1) is also in a lean-Democrat district, but do not count this scrappy congresswoman as down for the count; she has a knack for squeezing out electoral victories.
Redistricting will also play a role, as there are roughly 16 new Republican-leaning seats this cycle. Four of those 16 seats are in Florida, and five are in Texas. Looking at Fox’s numbers, Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL-14) is in one of those Republican-leaning districts, so that could be better labeled a toss-up. The same goes for Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX-32) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX-34), whose seats have become redder after redistricting. In North Carolina, Rep. Don Davis (D-NC-1) is also considered to be in one of the new Republican-leaning districts. Yet Fox still labels all four of these seats as lean-Democrat. Flip those four, sweep the toss-ups, and Republicans reach 216; hold Miller-Meeks’s seat and pull off one more upset, and the majority is back within reach.
So why are Republicans not performing as well as they should? The answer could be voter apathy. (RELATED: Winning the Election Shouldn’t Be This Hard for Republicans)
A recent Gallup poll shows that Republicans’ approval of Congress has dropped from 53 percent in February 2025 to 29 percent today. That is up only slightly from a low of 23 percent last November, and overall, 14 percent of Americans approve of Congress, the lowest pre-midterm reading since 1974. According to a senior Republican House staffer that I spoke with, it’s understandable why Republican voters feel dejected with the party. “Republicans overpromised with the idea of a trifecta,” they told me, “and now voters have apathy over the lack of action that was promised by both pundits and politicians.”
On paper, the economy is doing well: the United States is experiencing the lowest poverty rate in its modern history, the highest household income on record, oil and gas production is at an all-time high, and GDP growth in Q3 was a healthy 3.4 percent (and if sources in the administration are correct, Q4 could be yuge). Inflation, however, is running at 3.7 percent, gas prices are averaging over $4 a gallon, and an administration that ran on no new wars and lower costs is eight months into a conflict with Iran, which is disrupting global shipping of oil. It is no surprise the average Republican feels deflated, and the mood is even worse on Capitol Hill.
President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Speaker Mike Johnson have been traveling the country in hopes of fixing this. In October alone, the trio has done nearly 100 rallies, campaign stops, and district visits combined. These events tend to focus on two themes. The first is keeping the president’s agenda going. Should Democrats win in the midterms, they plan to tie the administration down with investigations. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the likely nominee for Speaker should the Democrats take the House, told ABC’s This Week, “We haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out in terms of impeachment.”
Another focus of these Republican campaign events is the theme of fighting back against the scourge of democratic socialism. Even with a strong economy, an August Gallup survey showed 43 percent of Americans have a positive view of socialism, a record high. Among independents, positive views of socialism jumped from 37 percent to 45 percent in a single year. This may also explain the rise in popularity of candidates like El-Sayed and Talarico, who call themselves capitalists, but whose agendas align more with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
That is the message that Trump, Vance, and Johnson are delivering while barnstorming the nation: if Republican voters sit this election out, left-wing candidates will head to Congress and work to halt the America First agenda.
A final factor to keep in mind is the polls. On October 21, a fake polling firm, Wedgewood Polling, posted on X that its polling data was mostly fabricated, after media companies like MS Now and The New York Times had already reported its numbers. Wedgewood Polling’s numbers boosted far-left candidates for major races across the country. (RELATED: Election Smorgasbord: Wedgewood’s Fake Polls, Flanagan’s Minnesota Flop, and Midterm Unrest)
Beyond the fake polls, the real ones have a habit of underselling Republicans. CNN’s Harry Enten notes that early-October generic-ballot polls have underestimated the GOP in 14 of the last 16 elections, by an average of about four points, more than enough to swing these toss-up races. As someone who has volunteered on a few campaigns over the years, let me tell you, voters hate answering surveys, and I cannot blame them; frankly, I hate them too. “I already know how I’m going to vote and I don’t need to share that with you,” I recall one lovely person yelling at me before they hung up. I also almost got mauled by a dog while door-knocking, but that is a fun conversation for another day. The point is that it is hard to get accurate information when people do not want to share what they think. That said, given the many tight races this cycle, Republicans could overperform, take races within the margin of error, and win in historic fashion. (RELATED: From Truman to Trump: Why Election Polls Keep Getting It Wrong)
The election is this Tuesday, and while I do not know with certainty what will happen, I do not believe Republicans will get demolished. I believe Republicans will hold onto the Senate, but the House remains the big question. As anyone who studies politics knows, whenever one party controls the White House, the opposing party is almost guaranteed to take control of Congress in the midterms. Given this cycle’s redistricting, I believe the days of huge House sweeps for either party are over… for now.
My election-night predictions for the House are this: if Donald Trump can defy history once again, Republicans will hold the House of Representatives, but only by the slimmest of margins. If the Doomers on Capitol Hill are correct and Democrats take back the House, I predict, at worst, they will have only a 10-seat majority. President Trump is a political anomaly; the country has not seen a man like him in quite some time, if ever. He is an X-factor that affects both Republican and Democrat voters alike.
Ultimately, this midterm will come down to one person, and that is the American voter. Staying home to send Republican leaders a message will not fix short-term problems that could be resolved in a matter of weeks; it will only hand the gavel over to Democrats for the next two years. Now is a time for choosing, for those voters and for Republicans.
READ MORE:
A Republican Victory Could Drive the Left to Bedlam
The Spookiest Interview in American Political History
Black Enthusiasm Gap Haunts Far Left Democrats
Zach Wilson is a member of The American Spectator development team and has spent several years working on Capitol Hill. He is currently a graduate student at Hillsdale College’s Van Andel School of Government in Washington, D.C., and earned his bachelor’s degree in history and political science from Grove City College in 2020.

In Poland, Nov. 1 marks All Saints’ Day, a national holiday in which Poles customarily visit the graves of deceased loved ones with candles and flowers. Many of the deceased visited this year would have lived through the 1981 imposition of martial law, the communist regime’s desperate attempt to restrict the power of the Solidarity movement in the face of a Soviet military threat.
Forty-five years later, Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed the nation in a manner recalling General Wojciech Jaruzelski’s infamous 1981 martial-law speech and told his audience, “I would very much like us never to have to witness such scenes in Poland again.”
Opposition figures have called it a coup.
He was referring to Friday’s dramatic raid on the Constitutional Tribunal, an object of much political wrangling over the last decade. On Friday evening, an unconfirmed Tusk-appointed judge asserted for herself powers of “substitute” to the sitting Tribunal president and proclaimed a “suspension” of sitting judges. Police were deployed around the building and barred the sitting Tribunal president, vice president, Tribunal Guard, and staff from entering. Opposition figures have called it a coup.
President Karol Nawrocki, a conservative elected separately from Tusk’s liberal-leftist-centrist coalition, was en route to Senegal for a state visit but returned to Warsaw. Journalist Stanisław Janecki reported that the army personnel responsible for the military wing of Warsaw’s Okęcie Airport ignored instructions to refuse landing to the presidential plane and divert it to another Polish airport. Readers should note that this is unconfirmed at the time of writing, and various officials have denied this reporting. (RELATED: Poland’s Enemies, Foreign and Domestic)
Nawrocki rushed to the Tribunal building and forced his way through a police cordon, an image that circulated worldwide via social media. He attempted to broker a compromise throughout the weekend, but these efforts were, at least initially, unsuccessful.
“Last night, the constitutional order of the Republic of Poland was violated and a constitutional state body was taken over by force,” wrote President Nawrocki on Saturday. “In view of the threat to the internal security of the Republic of Poland, I am convening urgent consultations today with representatives of the parliamentary groupings, aimed at stabilising the political situation and restoring the constitutional order.”
Battles over the Tribunal’s composition have raged for over a decade, becoming especially prominent in 2015, a year that saw the Right sweep presidential and parliamentary elections. Poland, like its Central European neighbors, featured a judiciary comprised largely of a communist-era elite varnished with a coat of liberal paint, a phenomenon described in detail in Ryszard Legutko’s 2016 book The Demon in Democracy: Totalitarian Temptations in Free Societies. (RELATED: What Next for Poland After Nawrocki Victory?)
From 2015-23, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, bolstered by the confirmation power of the generally sympathetic President Andrzej Duda, was able to reshape the nation’s judiciary, incensing EU officials and forming one of the defining pillars of Tusk’s bid to return to Polish politics. Tusk formed a broad anti-PiS coalition government after the 2023 parliamentary elections but has not enjoyed the advantage of a presidential ally. When Duda’s term expired in 2025, Nawrocki prevailed in a mild upset over the impeccably credentialed liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. One can say Polish voters elected a check on parliamentary power, a reality that has frustrated Tusk in the Sejm (Parliament) and in the courts. Though Tusk promised to depoliticize the court, he has nominated close allies, most notably Maciej Berek, a recent government minister whom Tusk has called his “right-hand man.”
The legal finer points are very technical, and an article of this length is insufficient to analyze them. Readers interested in the details of Polish constitutional law can find professional, up-to-date analysis from the Ordo Iuris Institute for Legal Culture, which publishes all of its materials in English.
From an American perspective, bickering over the Tribunal’s recent history might be likened to that of gerrymandering in U.S. elections. It should be difficult to entertain claims that only the opposing camp has behaved badly (though many do). The court-composition battle can be likened to skirmishes over SCOTUS and court-packing, though this imperfect analogy lacks the dichotomy of a head of government (prime minister) and head of state (president) that exists in Poland and much of Europe, as well as the aforementioned communist-cum-liberal elite.
The situation is developing, and the fallout will take time to assess, but President Nawrocki looks to be bolstering his reputation at Prime Minister Tusk’s expense. Nawrocki gained personal-best favorability ratings earlier this year after clashing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when the latter commemorated a World War II-era Ukrainian nationalist partisan group that committed genocide against Poles, a course the Tusk camp was unwilling to take with any conviction.
One of the defining images from this weekend is that of the former boxer Nawrocki barreling through a sea of riot police. Nawrocki casts the figure of a leader defending Polish interests, while Tusk evokes the Polish-born servant of a foreign power, a well-worn archetype from Mickiewicz’s Major Płut to Jaruzelski. This image was strengthened further when the European Commission issued a statement in support of Tusk’s unconfirmed judges, and again when heads of major Polish police unions criticized the police deployment. “No policeman or policewoman wants to become an element of political games,” wrote Jacek Łukasik, chairman of the union Policyjna Solidarność. “The police have once again involuntarily become an element being used in the political dispute among our elites,” said Rafał Jankowski, chairman of the union Niezależny Samorządny Związek Zawodowy Policjantów.
Furthermore, observers have noted that Poland’s fragmented Right, represented by no fewer than four factions at this time, has seamlessly united behind Nawrocki. That is especially significant heading into the 2027 election year, in which the broad Right could win a majority of votes but struggle to form a coalition. At least for now, it has a common villain. Even some representatives of the Tusk government are appalled. The Polish ambassadors to China, Romania, and the United Nations resigned in protest, a personal blow to Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.
By any measure, Tusk emerges from this weekend looking the part of a petty authoritarian.
By any measure, Tusk emerges from this weekend looking the part of a petty authoritarian. Staging the raid while President Nawrocki was on an intercontinental flight and many Poles were leaving the capital for the All Saints’ Day weekend isn’t the behavior of one who has truth on his side. Expected chaos from the upcoming U.S. midterms might have been another timing consideration. Emerging investigations suggest politicians planned the action well in advance, with only three police commanders informed. During his national address, Tusk looked and sounded shaky. He even made the requisite references to shadowy Russian antagonists. A young warrior from the Solidarity days now plays the role of the beleaguered Jaruzelski.
Pundits will make extensive comparisons to recent events in Brazil, the United States, and other parts of Europe. Online discussion already highlights the machinations of President Obama, Senator Slotkin, the CIA, and the EU. These are all valid considerations. The media landscape, though, should not be lost in this noise. Western corporate media have been slow in reporting this weekend’s developments. The expected pro-Tusk, pro-EU narrative has ultimately materialized, but it has been lukewarm.
Now the prime minister looks to be a cornered animal, lashing out in defense of a liberal order that has a diminished capacity to assert its will. As students of 1980’s Poland are aware, a cornered animal can still be dangerous.
Tusk’s opponents have reason for optimism after the Tribunal crisis, but one jarring frustration is a perceived lack of American support. U.S. Ambassador Tom Rose was quick to address these developments, but the State Department and the White House have thus far been silent. Secretary Rubio was even photographed at the Florida-Georgia football game with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and other foreign ministers, following a G20 summit. Tusk and Sikorski have weathered significant scandal in their careers, and they still enjoy unquestioned European institutional backing. The week’s events on this side of the Atlantic loom large.
READ MORE from Michael O’Shea:
Poland’s Enemies, Foreign and Domestic
Iceland Rushes Aboard the EU Sinking Ship
The ‘Black Insurgent’ and Americanization of Polish Society
Michael O’Shea is an American-Polish writer and translator. He is a former visiting fellow at the Danube Institute in Budapest. 
This image is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Poland.