MMN Editor

Treasury Drops “At Least” From Coupon Guidance, Opening The Door To Long-End Auction Changes In 2027

Two words. That is all it took.Well, the Treasury may not have gone as far as announcing a cut to 20Y and 30Y auction sizes (as Citi predicted a few weeks ago), but moments ago the department revamped the guidance on sales of notes and bonds it has used since early 2024, in a move that may open the door to cuts in issuance of the longest-dated debt in 2027.”Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the next several quarters.”The new language contrasts with the wording Bessent used for more than two years, which said auction sizes for coupons and floating-rate notes would be kept unchanged “for at least the next several quarters.” In other words, the floor under current auction sizes is gone… and from here on every refunding is live.Regular readers will recall that back in August, the guidance was exactly the same as it had been since the Yellen days, and we said as much at the time:Quarterly Refunding: Treasury auction schedule, no surprises here, as Treasury anticipates “maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” pic.twitter.com/Wihy4efWJn— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 5, 2026
Three months, one Fed hike, a buyback panic and a 30Y yield at the highest since 2002 later, “at least” is history.What Changed, What Didn’tThe headline numbers were a non-event, which is what nearly all primary dealers expected. Treasury will sell $125 billion of coupons at next week’s refunding auctions, unchanged for the 11th straight time, refunding about $97 billion of maturing paper and raising roughly $28 billion of new cash:$58 billion of 3-year notes on Nov. 9$42 billion of 10-year notes on Nov. 10$25 billion of 30-year bonds on Nov. 12*US SETS QUARTERLY REFUNDING AT $125B, IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES*US TREASURY SETS 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION AT $58 BILLION ON NOV. 9*US TREASURY SETS 10-YEAR NOTE AUCTION AT $42 BILLION ON NOV. 10*US TREASURY SETS 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION AT $25 BILLION ON NOV. 12— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 4, 2026
The 20Y stays at $16BN for the November new issue and $13BN for reopenings, while the 30Y stays at $25BN/$22BN. So no, the 20Y did not die today. But the rest of the statement is where it gets interesting. Beyond the deleted “at least”, Treasury:Said it “continues to evaluate potential future changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles,” and that it will “engage with a variety of market participants to better understand evolving Treasury supply and demand dynamics.” Translation: the long end is now under formal review.Added a brand new line saying it is “monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector” (more on why that matters below).Announced it will convert the 7Y note from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings (like the 10Y), starting with the March 2027 new issue. A small plumbing change perhaps, but also one that frees up flexibility in the belly right where everyone expects the eventual increases to land.Kept buybacks large: up to $70 billion of liquidity-support purchases across buckets over the quarter, plus up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year bucket for cash management.Meanwhile, the long end is still licking its wounds. As the Bloomberg chart below shows, 30Y yields have retreated from the early-October spike to the highest since 2002, but remain well above pre-Iran war levels, and well above where they were when Bessent panic-doubled the long-end buybacks in August.Citi Was Early… AgainWhich brings us to Citi. Back on Oct 12, we laid out Citi rates strategist Jason Williams’ call that “the next Treasury put” would come from the supply side, with Bessent expected to cut 20Y and 30Y auctions by $3 billion each at today’s refunding, and maybe kill the 20Y altogether (in the Pension plan for 20s?” note, available to pro subs). Then, when Treasury’s pre-refunding dealer questionnaire asked dealers outright “what future changes to auction sizes should Treasury consider,” we had just one question of our own:Treasury releases dealer questionnaire for the November 2026 refundingwe killing the 20Y? https://t.co/q2QuqBL0x1— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2026
… and Citi doubled down in its “Chips and the dip” note, writing that the questions supported its view that “on November 4th Treasury will reduce bond auction sizes (20y and 30y UST) by $3bn each,” which we discussed in “Bessent’s Pop Quiz: Citi Says Dealer Questions Confirm 20Y, 30Y Auction Cuts Are Coming.” At the time we said Citi may even be too conservative.Well, so much for that (for now). Here is what Citi expected for the 20Y and 30Y vs. what Treasury just penciled in: the grey bars won.To be fair to Citi, it wasn’t alone in being early, and Wall Street’s previews were all over the map. As we noted on Monday in “Wall Street Braces For Biggest Treasury Sales Overhaul In Years,” JPMorgan’s Jay Barry expected Treasury to keep the “next several quarters” language into 2027 (wrong), Barclays’ Anshul Pradhan suggested swapping “at least the next several quarters” for “the coming quarters” (close), and UBS’ Phoebe White said “guidance is more likely than immediate action” (correct). Even Goldman’s own trading desk strategists were mostly in the status-quo camp: in their “Treasury QRA: Who Pays for Duration?” note (also available to pro subs), the GS MarketStrats team gave a 65% probability to “coupon sizes unchanged, current guidance retained” and just 20% to “guidance softened, opening door to future coupon increases.”The one bank that called it pretty much on the nose was Goldman’s rates strategy team led by William Marshall, whose QRA preview was flagged in this morning’s GS desk email (available to pro subs):We expect Treasury to keep 10-to-30y coupon auction sizes steady and maintain or modestly increase buyback envelope sizes. A reduction in long-end auction sizes is a risk, but it is not our base case. Instead, we expect Treasury to further adjust its guidance, explicitly signalling potential auction size adjustments, and eventually begin increasing 2-to-7y auction sizes in May 2027. Our expectation for unchanged long-end auction sizes reflects a few factors, including that a reduction seems unnecessary from a liquidity or demand standpoint.Marshall also expected the new language “would be two-sided (i.e. ‘changes’ rather than ‘increases’) with emphasis on structural trends in demand,” which is almost word for word what Treasury published. And here is what that path looks like in practice: 2s through 7s grow every month starting next May, while 10s, 20s and 30s are frozen through the end of 2028 (title from the GS morning desk email, chart source GS GIR):Note that in Goldman’s projection, total nominal coupon issuance rises from $315BN today to $381BN by late 2028, and not one extra dollar of it goes into 20s or 30s. Which, depending on how you squint, is either a long-end cut in relative terms, or the market’s best guess at what “changes” means.The TBAC Debate: “Considerable” Disagreement On The Long EndThe more revealing documents today came from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, the panel of dealers and investors that advises Treasury ahead of each refunding. In its letter to Bessent, the TBAC recommended keeping coupon, FRN and TIPS sizes unchanged this quarter, but then added:However, the Committee believes that given current fiscal projections, increases in coupon auction sizes will be warranted later in FY27. Looking ahead, given the projected funding gaps in FY28 and FY29, members discussed different approaches to coupon increases over the horizon. While there is broad agreement across the Committee to increase coupon auction sizes, there was considerable debate around the pace and sizing specific to the long end of the curve.Members recommended that Treasury change its forward-guidance language…The TBAC minutes are even more explicit: members agreed “increases in coupon auction sizes would likely be appropriate in the second half of FY2027,” that “additional issuance should be concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector,” and “had a meaningful discussion about potential future changes to 20-year and 30-year issuance.” Meanwhile, primary dealers “overwhelmingly expected Treasury to focus the eventual increases in short- and intermediate-dated tenors,” and had “mixed views about market demand for longer-dated securities from liability-driven investors” (i.e., the pensions which have quietly gone missing from the long end, as Citi warned last month).The TBAC’s assessment of demand was, on the surface, reassuring. The committee believes “the market has recently been absorbing Treasury issuance well and that the bulk of recent interest rate rises reflect strong economic conditions and the monetary policy outlook rather than weak investor demand for Treasuries.” It noted that real money investors, “including retail and some institutional investors, have grown their demand as rates have risen and as a hedge against downward moves in economic conditions.”Then came the caveats: “baseline fiscal projections suggest that current auction sizes are likely to shift Treasury’s debt profile toward an increasing share of bill and shorter-term funding,” and “money market fund assets have leveled off and the bill market has started to show some signs of price sensitivity.” In other words, the long end is fine (says the committee), the bill market is starting to wobble, and the current issuance mix pushes ever more supply into… the bill market. Hence the recommendation that Treasury change its forward guidance, with the TBAC stressing that “clear communication alongside a regular and predictable operating framework remains important to help market participants adjust to future changes.”Put differently, everyone agrees that issuance has to go up.Nobody wants it to go up at the long end. And at least some TBAC members are clearly entertaining the idea that 20s and 30s should go down.Bessent also got a not-so-subtle message from his own advisers on his favorite tool. The TBAC agreed the buybacks have been an effective liquidity tool, but then added that “any management of Treasury’s maturity profile should be done via changes to auction sizes.” Translation: stop using “liquidity support” buybacks as a backdoor yield cap, and if you want less duration out there, just sell less of it. Which, for those keeping score, is exactly what we said when the buyback panic failed to prevent a tailing 20Y auction in August and then sent yields surging on the disappointing size in September.As for the elephant in the room, the TBAC’s first charge this quarter was on “super intelligence (SI)-related issuance,” (which after the Trump rout overnight can mercifully now call Artificial Intellgience again) and the committee concluded that “Treasury auction results show no evidence that 2026 technology-related issuance has crowded out long-end Treasury demand.” Maybe. Though the same letter concedes that heavy tech issuance “contributed to wider spreads in the sector and increased competition for long-duration capital,” that the financing cycle “remains in its early stages,” and recommends Treasury “continue to monitor potential effects.” We have been warning since last October, when “AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too,” that AI paper and Treasuries are competing for the same duration buyers, and we’ll note that the TBAC’s “no evidence” landed on the same morning Meta is seeking as much as €9 billion from its debut euro bond sale. No crowding out at all. (To be fair, the committee also said that “to the extent technology investment is affecting rates,” it sees the transmission “stemming from stronger growth rather than through crowding out.” Growth which, conveniently, happens to be financed by one of the biggest corporate bond binges in history.)The TBAC’s second charge was on Treasury derivatives, where it argued that expressing duration through futures and swaps “enhances demand for Treasuries by broadening market access and expanding intermediation capacity.” More interesting was the wish list of policy options it said could boost demand for cash Treasuries:Easing regulatory constraints on balance sheet capacity, including exempting Treasuries from leverage ratios and recognizing pre-positioned discount window collateral in liquidity metrics;Expanding access to repo financing and improving the availability of term repo;Enabling new entrants in repo market making;Evaluating the fund accounting treatment of repo interest, tax treatment, and operational challenges.Translation: if you want the private sector to warehouse trillions more in Treasuries, you’d better let the banks’ balance sheets do it. Which is about as subtle as the TBAC gets when asking Washington for more balance sheet relief.The $2.14 Trillion ProblemSo why change the guidance now if nothing is changing for at least another two quarters? Because the math is getting ugly, fast.According to the minutes, Treasury’s debt managers told the TBAC that current issuance sizes would leave “a modest funding shortfall in FY2027” that “could likely be managed using bills.” However, looking to FY2028-2029, “the median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall based on current coupon auction sizes and privately-held bill supply.”Treasury’s own presentation shows the problem: if coupon sizes and privately-held bills stay frozen, the issuance they generate (dark blue bars, plus the SOMA bill-purchase effect) falls well short of what dealers (green), OMB (orange) and CBO (blue) expect Uncle Sam to need to borrow every year:In the near term, the gap is being plugged with bills, and in size. Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in October-December and $800 billion in January-March, which, per its presentation, implies a $332 billion increase in bills this quarter and $532 billion next quarter assuming constant coupon sizes. Here is what that looks like at the weekly level, where gross bill sales just hit $626 billion, the highest in the chart:And the near-term bill roadmap in the refunding statement confirms the bill machine is about to shift into a higher gear after a brief seasonal lull. Per Treasury:Late November: “Based on current forecasts, Treasury expects to maintain current auction sizes of benchmark bills into late November and anticipates potentially issuing a short-dated CMB to meet its cash management needs around the end of November.”December: “Given projections for receipts associated with the mid-December corporate and non-withheld tax date, Treasury expects to implement reductions to shorter-dated bill auction sizes during the month of December.”January: “Treasury anticipates increasing auction sizes across the bill curve based on expected seasonal fiscal outflows.”Meanwhile, the cash pile gets bigger, and lumpier. Treasury is assuming an $850 billion cash balance at the end of December, but estimates the TGA “could peak at $1.025 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late November and late January,” driven by the large outflows expected at those times. Put differently, the TGA tops $1 trillion twice in the next three months, each time draining reserves just as bill supply ramps up, which is the kind of setup that tends to make repo (and SOFR fixes vs. IORB, as Citi warned last month) a little jumpy. Probably nothing…. compare all that with notes and bonds,where monthly issuance has been stuck at $315-$324 billion since early 2024, a flat line that is now in its 11th refunding quarter:The result: bills are now 23.0% of marketable debt, above the 22.4% historical average (and the 20% the TBAC advised as an average back in 2024). And in Treasury’s own “coupons constant” scenario (black line), the bill share climbs toward 28% by 2029, levels last seen in the early 2000s and briefly in the GFC:Yes, this is the same Scott Bessent who spent 2024 lambasting Janet Yellen for financing the government with too many bills. Then again, nothing changes one’s view on terming out quite like a 30Y north of 5%.Who Pays For Duration (And Who Buys The Bills)Goldman’s MarketStrats team framed the trade-off well. Treasury can’t change how much it borrows, “but it does decide how much duration the market has to own.” And the long end punches far above its weight: in the August-October quarter, 20s and 30s were just 11.6% of the coupon dollars Treasury sold, but 30.5% of the rate risk.Which is why trimming the long end is so tempting for a Treasury Secretary who is visibly uncomfortable with long-end yields (JPMorgan’s Barry called it Treasury’s “discomfort with the level of yields”): cutting 20s and 30s removes a lot of duration for relatively few dollars. But as Goldman notes, there is no free lunch:Fund further out and Treasury locks in its financing, but investors must warehouse more duration. Fund shorter and investors absorb less duration, but Treasury assumes more refinancing and policy-rate risk… Bill-heavy financing ties Treasury’s interest bill more tightly to the policy rate. If higher interest costs eventually constrain monetary policy, fiscal risk can reappear through inflation expectations and the expected policy path.And 2026 has made that trade-off painfully visible: as GS points out, 2Y yields are up 111bps YTD vs. 48bps for the 30Y, courtesy of a Warsh Fed which hiked for the first time since 2023 in September. In other words, shifting issuance into bills means shifting it into “the part of the curve that has repriced fastest in 2026.”Then there is the question of who buys all those bills, and here Treasury’s new line about “monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills” deserves a closer look. The Fed has been buying bills since mid-December 2025, and per Goldman, SOMA bill holdings have nearly tripled from $195.5 billion to $571.5 billion, with the Fed’s share of bills outstanding rising from 3.6% to 7.9%. But, as GS also notes, “that support is fading”: the Fed added $56 billion of bills in February but only $11 billion so far in October (through Oct 28). Meanwhile the TBAC noted that money market fund assets “have leveled off” and the bill market “has started to show some signs of price sensitivity,” and stablecoin demand, touted by Treasury as the next great bill buyer, has yet to materialize at scale.Put differently, the bill-financing escape hatch works only as long as somebody keeps buying, and the biggest marginal buyer of the past year (the Fed) is slowing down just as Treasury is about to dump half a trillion of new bills on the market next quarter.Door Open, Long End NextSo what happens next? The base case, now shared by Goldman, the TBAC and the dealer community, is that coupon sizes stay frozen through early 2027, with increases starting around May and concentrated in 2s through 7s (helped along by the 7Y conversion), while 10s, 20s and 30s stay flat. Bloomberg notes the TBAC had recommended modifying the guidance as far back as February 2025, and in August asked Treasury to “preserve flexibility” heading into FY27. It just got it.But “flat” may well turn out to be the optimistic case for the long end. The TBAC’s “considerable debate” over 20s and 30s, the dealers’ “mixed views” on pension demand, the explicit language on “structural demand” and the “costs and risks of various issuance profiles,” and an advisory committee telling Bessent to manage the maturity profile through auction sizes rather than buybacks, all point in one direction. As Goldman put it, “the supply of duration matters, not just the supply of debt,” and a Treasury which just deleted “at least” from its guidance is clearly thinking about the supply of duration.Our take: Citi was probably early, and the 20Y (which even Steven Mnuchin, the man who resurrected it after Covid, now wants dead) is living on borrowed time. The question is whether the cut arrives in February, May or with the first round of increases later in 2027, and whether anyone notices that shrinking the long end conjures up zero new buyers and simply pushes the problem into a bill market where the Fed is stepping back. A smaller long end means a bigger interest bill that resets with every Warsh hike. Or, as Goldman put it, “debt management changes where fiscal risk is priced; it does not make it disappear.”The next refunding announcement is on Wednesday, February 3, 2027. Expect “next several quarters” to be on the chopping block too.Much more in the full Goldman “Treasury QRA: Who Pays for Duration?” and QRA Preview notes, and Citi’s “Pension plan for 20s?”and “Chips and the dip” notes, all available to pro subs.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/04/2026 – 09:28

Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K For One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn’t Flip…

Authored by Ryan S. Gladwin via Decrypt,A “blue wave” swept the U.S. midterms as the Democrats took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, in a crushing blow to President Donald Trump.Polymarket predictor 0xA2 is the platform’s most profitable trader over the past 24 hours, according to the site’s daily leaderboard. They are currently $917,000 in profit, although most of that is still in an active position that has a real (albeit small) chance of upset.The user wagered $609,644 on the Republicans not winning any Senate swing states when odds sat at just 36%, a market which has since surged to 87%. This turned his stake into $1.48 million, putting him $860,000 in the green.It’s important to remember: these are unrealized gains and could drop at any moment as 0xA2 waits for Alaska’s final verdict. Polymarket traders put a 14% chance on an upset – and while this may seem small, the site has seen similarly sized upsets recently – as in the case of Brazil’s presidential election two weeks ago.0xA2 also profited $106,115 by predicting that the Democrats would win the Texas Senate – profits that have been realized. Oddly, the user’s second largest active position is $1.42 million on the U.S. not confirming that aliens exist before 2027.”Election night showed how quickly round-the-clock markets move when traditional exchanges are closed. As polls began closing at 6pm ET, Kalshi’s odds of a Democratic sweep went from about 74% to 99%,” Kelly Ye, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Talos, said in a note shared with Decrypt. “Prediction-market trading peaked between 8pm and 10pm ET, led by a small number of large trades.”It was a big day for Polymarket users profiting, with the top 10 users on the platform profiting more than $170,000, per the leaderboard. To put that into perspective, on a fairly random day in March this year, the top daily winner on Polymarket profited $154,000, according to the WayBackMachine, and the 10th biggest winner that day gained $29,700.Prediction markets and electionsThe midterms attracted major activity on leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. According to Precition.com data, midterm markets attracted more than $546 million in notional volume over the past two weeks.”The 2024 election was the breakthrough moment for prediction markets. It was their first major real-world test and the event that really drove volume and open interest,” Dash, the pseudonymous data lead at Prediction.com, told Decrypt. “Today, sports dominate trading volume, but Politics is still the key driving factor for open interest.”During the 2024 presidential race, Polymarket became what Bernstein analysts called the world’s largest election prediction market, with its flagship market topping $3.6 billion in volume. Maybe more importantly, predictors favored Trump for most of the campaign, while traditional polls kept him neck and neck with Kamala Harris. Prediction market users took this as a sign that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional political polling.”Increasingly, people are looking for accurate forecasts on election results,” Dash said, “and prediction markets are one place they can be found.”Those forecasts aren’t always accurate, though. Just two weeks ago, Polymarket predictors whiffed Brazil’s presidential election, with users giving Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva about a 20% chance of winning ahead of election day, before he ultimately beat Flávio Bolsonaro to take a fourth term.Experts told Decrypt at the time that Brazil’s prediction market ban had left the odds in the hands of traders with little local knowledge to correct the odds. Plus, experts warned that a 20% chance of something happening is still a very real chance.”Ultimately, something that has an 80% chance of happening does not happen 20% of the time,” Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, said.So that 14% chance that 0xA2 loses his $860,000 in profit should be taken seriously.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/04/2026 – 09:25

There’s blood in the water as House Republicans watch their razor-thin majority disappear under an ocean of Democratic victories.House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is throwing his hat in the ring to lead the chamber’s Republicans for the next two years, two sources told Fox News Digital, potentially setting up a bruising battle against Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to be in charge of the House minority.It comes as the House of Representatives is projected to fall into Democratic hands for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.Republican lawmakers had for months expected Jordan to launch a bid for House minority leader should they lose the House majority in this year’s elections. He’s quietly been building up support and goodwill within the House GOP and spent much of the midterm season campaigning for various Republican candidates across the country.INSIDE TOP TRUMP BULLDOG’S PLAN TO SAVE HOUSE GOP MAJORITY AND DEFY HISTORYWhoever wins House minority leader is all but guaranteed to take on the role of Trump’s top defender against a barrage of Democrat-led investigations and potentially even impeachment efforts.Jordan has spent the last six years as top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, where he’s gone toe-to-toe with the very Democrats who will likely be at the forefront of the Trump accountability push.DEM PROBES COULD ‘TORTURE’ YOUNG TRUMP OFFICIALS WITH CRUSHING LEGAL BILLS, SUBPOENAED CONSERVATIVE WARNSJordan previously ran for House speaker in October 2023 after a GOP rebellion deposed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., but failed to clinch the necessary chamber-wide majority. Moderate Republicans who opposed that campaign accused Jordan’s allies of fomenting an aggressive public pressure campaign that even escalated to death threats in some instances.But the Ohio Republican has spent recent years morphing his image from a divisive GOP bomb-thrower to a unifying leader for the right — and he’s even campaigned for some of those same moderate Republicans who opposed him previously.MIKE JOHNSON’S FUTURE HANGS IN BALANCE AS THE ‘ACCIDENTAL SPEAKER’ MARKS 3 YEARSAnd becoming minority leader is significantly easier than becoming House speaker. A candidate for speaker must get a majority of the entire House of Representatives to win the gavel, but a minority leader only needs a majority of their party.It’s not clear yet whether Johnson will seek to lead House Republicans in the minority, but it’s widely expected that he will step aside.Jordan is likely to face a significant challenge, however, from current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.Scalise, as a member of senior House leadership, has been crisscrossing the country in support of fellow Republicans and has spent years as a potent fundraiser for the right.It comes after a devastating night for Republicans across the federal and state levels. Both battleground district Republicans and GOP lawmakers in safe-red seats fell to a tsunami of Democrat victories.The losses prompted House Republicans to demand new leadership, which could work out in Jordan’s favor, and many of those moderates who had opposed Jordan’s 2023 speakership bid lost their seats on Tuesday night.

Riley Green has fans buzzing after dropping a new video.As our loyal readers know, the “Jesus Saves” singer is one of the most popular talents in all of country music.His music is a blend of fun tracks and emotional stories that hit listeners right in the heart. Green also released his latest album – “That’s Just Me” – back in September.RILEY GREEN DROPS NEW SINGLE ‘GO AGAIN’ WITH HANNAH MCFARLAND AHEAD OF SEPTEMBER ALBUMNow, he has fans fired up with his latest drop online.Green posted an acoustic performance of his popular song “Well Well Whiskey,” which is from “That’s Just Me,” on YouTube for fans Tuesday.As you’d expect, fans couldn’t smash the play button fast enough to check out his latest acoustic performance.It definitely didn’t disappoint.Give it a listen below, and let me know your thoughts at David.Hookstead@outkick.com.Fans of Riley Green were quick to offer plenty of reactions in the comments. One viewer wrote, “Riley, this is soo incredible ❤❤❤❤.”Another added, “Damn good song….”A third commented, “Acoustic version is so good!!!”RILEY GREEN DROPS ACOUSTIC TIKTOK PERFORMANCE OF ‘BARTENDER IN DESTIN’ AND FANS CAN’T GET ENOUGHSIGN UP FOR THE DAILY OUTKICK NEWSLETTERGreen has been consistently releasing acoustic versions of his latest songs, and every single one has been a hit on YouTube.Now, he can add “Well Well Whiskey” to the list. Let me know your thoughts on his music at David.Hookstead@outkick.com, and keep checking back for the latest country music news.

 
Farmer Donovan Marx (left) was attacked and tortured on his farm in the North West province on Oct. 28
President Trump has revoked South Africa’s duty-free trade deal as the corrupt ANC government continues to plunge the country into poverty, mayhem and despair. Two horrific farm attacks in the last two weeks involving brutal torture were reported, with one farmer having his ears cut off and one woman being tortured with bolt cutters. 
On Wednesday morning, the 28th of October, 50-year-old farmer Donovan Marx was attacked as he returned home to his farm in the North West province of South Africa. Marx was shot, stabbed and had his ears cut off, police said. Five men were arrested for what News24 called a “horror attack”, four of them appearing in court in Ventersdorp this Tuesday.
“Marx’s attackers tied up a farm worker with cable ties before waiting for the farmer to arrive, then dragged him into the house and ransacked the property, stealing three firearms from a safe and fleeing in his bakkie (truck),” News24 wrote.

White South African tortured and had his ears hacked off during a horrific robbery at his farm as the attackers remain at large.
Cattle farmer Donovan Marx, 50, was alone inside his home after his wife Louise had left for work on Wednesday when two men attacked one of his workers in a barn.
The worker was tied up and the robbers then burst into the main farmhouse and shot Mr Marx before stabbing him in the leg.
As he collapsed in a pool of blood, the two men taunted him, held him down and then cut off his ears before slicing them into small bits!
— Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra) October 29, 2026

On Sunday evening, November 1, Les and Natasha Brett were allegedly stripped naked, beaten, and burned with boiling water as three armed attackers tortured them for safe keys at their Broederstroom game farm in the North West province, Citizen reported.

ANOTHER brutal farm attack and torture in South Africa:
An elderly couple were burned with boiling water and beaten as attackers tried to cut off wife’s nipples with bolt cutters.
Only psychopaths consider this “just normal crime”.
https://t.co/22qmWUDvWq
— Conscious Caracal (@ConCaracal) November 3, 2026

“It was a military-style operation. They were well trained and knew exactly what they wanted. The attack started when they hit me in the face with a bolt cutter,” Les Brett told Kormorant. “They then tied us up and forced us into a built-in safe. They continued to torture us by pouring boiling water over us, stabbing us and demanding money.”
“They kept on shouting: ”Where is the millions, where is the millions!“ I told them that there is no money on the property.”
According to Les, the torture continued and they tore Natashia’s clothes off. They stuck the barrel of a AK47 assault rifle in Les’s mouth. “The gunman pulled the trigger but miraculously the gun jammed.”
According to Les they threatened to cut off Natashia’s nipples. They also threatened to rape Natashia. However, Les emphasized that some media reported that his wife was raped, these are false.
“We managed to free ourselves from the safe and called for help at 22:30,
The attackers eventually fled the property, taking seven firearms, two cellphones and a laptop stolen from the house.
With more than four decades of experience in the African bush, Brett has devoted much of his life to wildlife conservation, anti-poaching training, bushcraft and environmental education.
Security personnel arrived at the property within minutes and immediately summoned emergency medical services.
A search operation was launched in the surrounding area, with drones deployed in an attempt to locate the fleeing attackers.
Despite the search, the suspects could not be located at the time.
Afriforum, a civil rights organization, has issued its 2025 farm attack report, finding a rise in farm attacks from 176 in 2024 to 184 in 2025. The number of farm murders declined from 37 in 2024 to 29 in 2025.
Leftist media and the South African government continue to deny the existence of farm attacks and farm murders in South Africa. AfriForum has called on President Cyril Ramaphosa to speak out against the attack on Donovan Marx and acknowledge the fact of farm attacks in South Africa.
According to AfriForum CEO Kallie Kriel, Ramaphosa “has a duty to denounce farm attacks and to take the lead in eradicating this scourge”, AfriForum stated. “His condemnation of farm attacks would carry far more than just symbolic significance. It would provide recognition for victims of farm attacks, focus attention on the need to protect rural communities, and acknowledge the government’s responsibility to ensure the safety of the country’s residents.

MK party politician, member of the South African parliament, and member of the Portfolio Committee on AGRICULTURE, Andile Mngxitama, justifies and celebrates the torture of farmer Donovan Marx and encourages more such attacks.
There will be no consequences for Andile, because many in the South African government appear to share his views.
— Conscious Caracal (@ConCaracal) November 1, 2026

“While Ramaphosa fails to condemn farm attacks, MK Party MP Andile Mngxitama makes inflammatory statements on social media, arguing, among other things, that the attack in which Marx’s ears were cut off is “symbolic to denote the refusal of land thieves to listen.’ On this matter, too, the President remains characteristically silent,” Kriel stated.

.@afriforum is today attending the first appearance of the accused in the inhumane farm attack on Donovan Marx, in the magistrates court in Ventersdorp. How many more farmers @CyrilRamaphosa ? https://t.co/LCxOxO3A0x
— Jacques Broodryk (@JacquesBroodryk) November 3, 2026

In reaction to the South African government’s rampant corruption and refusal to stop the targeted killings of ethnic Afrikaners, US President Donald J. Trump has now decided to remove the country from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), introduced by former U.S. President Bill Clinton in 2000 to give duty-free access to the American market.
“I am taking this step because I have determined that the Government of South Africa has not established, or is not making continual progress toward establishing, a system to combat corruption and bribery or the elimination of barriers to United States trade and investment, as required by section 104 of AGOA. In addition, certain actions by the Government of South Africa on matters of international security and its relations and cooperation with governments of concern to the United States risk undermining United States national security and foreign policy”, Trump wrote in a letter to Ramaphosa on October 28.

This is the letter US President Donald Trump sent to President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing the termination of South Africa’s AGOA eligibility.
Here’s the crux: “I am taking this step because I have determined that the Government of South Africa has not established, or is not making continual progress toward establishing, a system to combat corruption and bribery or the elimination of barriers to United States trade and investment, as required by section 104 of AGOA. In addition, certain actions by the Government of South Africa on matters of international security and its relations and cooperation with governments of concern to the United States risk undermining United States national security and foreign policy.”
— Conscious Caracal (@ConCaracal) November 2, 2026

Trump has also disinvited South Africa from the G20 Summit taking place 4–15 December 2026 at Trump National Doral Miami, pointing out that the failing country no longer ranks among the top 20 economies of the world, currently ranking 39th globally.
South Africa’s largest city, Johannesburg, is reportedly on the brink of a “total collapse” of its water system as worsening shortages have left residents without running water for weeks. Water tankers & bottled supplies now require armed police escorts.

The decline of my hometown Jo’burg is a warning to London, Paris, New York, Amsterdam and every major city across the West. If you don’t act now, your cities will suffer the same fate. https://t.co/1YawPuhdkO
— The Kiffness (@TheKiffness) October 31, 2026

In an interview with Gabriel Makin from The Common Sense on Monday, 19 October 2026, United States Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III, warned that “South Africa can and will go the way of Haiti with the wrong policies. However, it can go the way of the United States with the right policies. As simple as that.”

It is regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA for South Africa. This was a predictable and preventable outcome resulting from the rejection by South Africa’s government of real concerns raised by the U.S. Government. I remain hopeful that we can find a path forward to address our larger bilateral concerns, but the South African government must understand the gravity of the situation. We know that if America succeeds, so too will South Africa. This is the partnership I will continue to pursue as expeditiously as possible.
https://t.co/ldYyq3ww4m
— U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of South Africa (@USAmbRSA) November 2, 2026

After the AGOA announcement, Bozell called it “regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA” and “a predictable and preventable outcome resulting from the rejection by South Africa’s government of real concerns raised by the U.S. Government.”
Ahead of local elections today, Wednesay November 4, support for the ruling ANC party has plummeted “to an all-time low as citizens are tired of corruption, incompetence, and bad policies”, Newsday writes. 90% of South Africans feel the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to the report.

South Africa: Farm torture: “The worst was when they started cutting my wife”
Les Brett (67) says the worst part was not what happened to him: “It was when they started cutting my wife’s nipples, just to cause pain. She’s a very, very strong woman. A good woman.”
He and his wife, Natasha (68), have lived for 13 years on a farm at Broederstroom, near Hartbeespoort Dam, where he is involved in wildlife conservation. That is why he has guns, including an AK-47 assault rifle.
“They put the AK-47’s barrel in my mouth and pulled the trigger, but it didn’t fire,” he says.
“It was God’s grace. There’s nothing wrong with my gun. But they didn’t know much about guns, to be honest.”
The attackers left with seven of Les’s guns and the couple’s cellphones.
Three attackers broke into the house and overpowered the couple. They tied their feet, blindfolded them and tied their arms behind their backs.
“But they kept us apart, so most of the time we could only hear what was happening to the other one,” says Natasha.
The motive for the attack? “There were only two reasons. They wanted to get into the safe, and they wanted cash,” says Les.
He says it was as if they knew he owned firearms. “That’s when they started assaulting my wife in front of me. But once they had the keys, they got it into their heads that we keep cash.”
The couple can’t remember exactly how long the torture lasted, but estimate it was between two and three hours. “It’s difficult, because you’re in so much pain that time passes more slowly,” says Natasha.
Photo caption: Les and Natasha Brett before the attack. (Supplied)
Les and Natasha are already back home, but their injuries are still serious.
“They slapped me and cut the clothes off my body. Exactly like in the movies, as if there’s a mafia above them giving them instructions,” she says.
She also believes that at times it felt as if they were simply taking out their frustrations in anger. “You could see the adrenaline and the rage in their eyes. They also acted as if they weren’t coordinated among themselves.”
In the middle of the attack, one of them told her: “We’re not here to steal cables.”
The couple’s bank cards were left untouched. “I even offered to drive to an ATM, but they didn’t want to,” she says.
Natasha also says she was nearly raped twice. “But they’re like children in a toy shop. When the safe opened, he forgot about me.”
Natasha suspects that if they had not handed over the keys to the safe, the attackers would have killed Les. “It was like a negotiation.”
Photo caption: One of Les’s wounds. (Supplied)
Her lips are now badly swollen, there are bruises behind her ears, and the attackers almost dislocated her shoulder.
“They tied my hands so tightly that the blood circulation was cut off, and then there were the rags they kept pushing into your mouth…” This later tore her frenulum (the tissue that attaches the tongue to the floor of the mouth).
Both of them were tortured with boiling water, but it is not yet clear how serious the burns are.
Les’s injuries are worse than his wife’s. “They hit him over the head with bolt cutters. His face was very swollen, the white of his eye was red and full of blood, and he can’t hear out of his left ear. His eardrum is burst,” she says.
Natasha remembers that it later went quiet where she was sitting alone. “I think they realised we had nothing. When I thought it was quiet enough, I struggled for 15 minutes to untie my feet,” she says.
There was a knife on the table, which they used to cut each other loose.
“The strangest thing is that they let our dogs out, and even threw their pellets in for them to eat,” she says. They have boerboel and Rhodesian ridgeback crosses, as well as a terrier, “and they didn’t even bark.”
Les thanked all the services that helped them after the attack. “We can’t complain at all,” he says.
Leilani Basson of Bush Babes Conservation Adventures has worked with Les for 14 years. “That something like this should happen to a man like him is tragic. That it should happen to someone so devoted to conservation.”
She describes him as “a man who is always ready, a real army man who stays out in the veld with the wild animals because he loves them.”
“He can tell you about anything, from history to facts about the soil and the grass. He’s a walking encyclopaedia of the veld!”
Les also runs the Dung Beetle Bush School, which aims to teach children and women more about the Bushveld. It is also part of an anti-poaching unit that Les runs together with several other organisations.
The police are investigating a case of house robbery. No one has been arrested yet, says police spokesperson Sergeant Kelebogile Morake.
Lieutenant General Arthur Peter Adams, the provincial police commissioner in North West, condemned the attack.
“It is concerning that criminals continue to target vulnerable members of our communities in the safety of their own homes. We condemn such acts of violence and intimidation in the strongest terms.”
Adams said the police would “intensify efforts” to make sure the attackers are arrested.
Anyone with information that can help the police investigation can contact the investigating officer, Warrant Officer Gregory Kwadi, on 082 373 9636.
Source: Desiré Nortjé, Netwerk24
— Afrikaner (@AltAfrikaner) November 3, 2026

The post White Farmers Shot and Tortured as President Trump EJECTS South Africa from Duty-Free Trade Deal appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Ohio voters cast their final ballots on Tuesday night, passing a proposed constitutional amendment requiring voter ID.
About two thirds of Ohio citizens voted in favor of Ohio Issue 3, amending the state constitution to require voters to show an unexpired government-issued identification at the polls for future elections, the Hill reported. While the state’s law had already required showing photo ID to cast a ballot, this new vote specifically enshrines those requirements in the state constitution.

BREAKING:
Issue 3 in Ohio has just PASSED.
It will require Ohio voters to show photo ID in order to vote in person. https://t.co/YUWioxtBng
— Evan Kilgore (@EvanAKilgore) November 4, 2026

Former Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown flipped the seat formerly held by Vice President JD Vance by defeating appointed Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted — returning to the upper chamber after a two-year absence. Brown was vocally opposed to the ballot measure since the start of his campaign.
“For years, Ohio has had safe and secure elections that have been administered in a bipartisan fashion. It’s wrong that people are trying to sow distrust in our election systems,” Brown told the Dayton Daily News back in March. “Our leaders should be trying to make it easier to vote, not creating unnecessary barriers that threaten the ability of hardworking Ohioans to vote early, mail in their ballots, or vote on Election Day.”
Also on Tuesday, Democratic nominee Amy Acton won Ohio’s gubernatorial race, defeating Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy. Unlike Brown, Acton said she supported the voter ID amendment on the ballot, breaking with most elected officials in her party, according to Signal Statewide.
“This amendment has overwhelming support from Ohioans across the state. As this doesn’t change what is already law, as governor, I will support it,” Acton said in a statement to the outlet in August. “At the same time, as both a candidate and governor, I will fight to ensure that all eligible Ohio voters, regardless of party, can access the required identification easily and at no cost, so they can exercise their fundamental right and have their voices heard.”
Spokespersons from Brown’s and Acton’s campaigns did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
Acton’s decision put her at odds with most of the Democratic Party, as every Democrat in the state House and Senate who voted on the official measure that placed Issue 3 on the ballot, voted against it.
Polls show Voter ID has wide support across demographic groups including both political parties. Ninety-eight percent of Republicans, 84 percent of independents and 67 percent of Democrats supported requiring “all voters to provide photo identification at their voting place in order to vote,” an October 2024 Gallup poll found.
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