BUSINESS

Three weeks in, and the U.S.-Israel war against Iran seems no closer to a conclusion than when the bombs, missiles and drones first began to fill the skies over Iran and other parts of the Middle East. And everyone in the world is feeling the war’s effects: It has boosted the price of crude oil substantially since the end of January. Brent crude finished March 20 at $112.19 a barrel, up around 3% on the day and 84% for the year and 63% since the end of January.Gasoline prices are soaring. The average U.S. price was $3.912 per gallon as of March 20, using AAA data. That’s up 37.8% for the year and 33.5% since the end of January. Stocks are lower, while interest rates have moved up.The future doesn’t look like it will improve soon. In a report released this week, investment bank Goldman Sachs analysed what may happen to oil prices.The conclusion: Oil prices “will likely continue to trend higher.” Related: Iran’s shocking threat to boost oil to $200For how long depends, Goldman’s analysis says. The key is when the Strait of Hormuz reopens to regular flows of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and related products to the world from the eight nations that ring the Persian Gulf — the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran.The region ships 20% or more of the crude oil and 20% of the LNG. All must pass through the strait, and Iran forms its north side. Iranian forces have used mines, drones and missiles deployed in and around the strait to keep oil tankers stuck, fully loaded, in ports in the Gulf. The only tankers getting through the strait are those escorted by Iranian war vessels.The war is more than trying to disrupt oil. Israel has used the war to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran fired missiles at Diego Garcia, 2500 miles (4,000 kilometers) from the Persian Gulf to disrupt U.S. military activities.

A fireball erupts from an Israeli airstrike on Beirut. Getty Images Fadel Itani/Getty Images

How Goldman Sachs looks at the challengeGoldman’s analysis (including examinations of prior oil shocks) is:It will take time, maybe years, for production among the Gulf states to recover.In the meantime, if it can’t be shipped, Brent crude has a good chance of reaching or exceeding its record price of $147.50 a barrel in July 2008.If the United States limits Iranian exports, Brent, the global benchmark crude, will command a higher premium over Light Sweet crude, the U.S. benchmark, than it does now. Brent’s premium now is about $14 a barrel, based on light sweet crude’s March 20 close of $98.23 a barrel.A long war boosts time needed to recoverThe report suggests the recovery will be faster if the Strait is fully accessible by April, and if the damage to production and shipping facilities is modest. If that’s the case, Brent could fall back into the $70 range by the fourth quarter of 2026. That would be where Brent was priced in February.Four years at least may be the most likely scenario for Gulf production to recover, the report suggests.A quick reopening of the strait will accelerate recovery because it means less damage to the vast infrastructure for producing, processing, and loading oil, chemicals, and liquefied natural gas.A long war can expose deeper problems. The Iraq-Iran war in 1980 was so devastating that, by 1984, production in both countries was still down 64% from levels before the war, the report says. Complicating matters is that, over the years, many Persian Gulf countries have underinvested in upgrading their production and shipping infrastructures. And when countries started rebuilding their oil industries, they had to play catch-up to rebuild their infrastructure.Trump: U.S. may wind down in gulfThere’s another potential complication that may affect the course of this war. What happens in the immediate future is unclear. President Trump said late Friday he might begin winding down U.S. operations in the Gulf region and that other countries should police the Strait of Hormuz.He also mentioned possibly having a dialogue with Iran’s leaders, but the president ruled out a cease fire. “You don’t do a cease-fire when you’re literally obliterating the other side,” he told a press gathering.Related: Morgan Stanley has a stark warning for oil investorsSo far, few countries have offered to join the United States in opening the strait.The U.S., meanwhile, is sending three warships and thousands of Marines to the region, where some 50,000 personnel are already stationed. But the Trump Administration said it wasn’t planning to put “boots on the ground” in Iraq.Stocks continue to struggleThe war — and the oil shock that has come with it — hit financial markets again on March 20. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 100 points, or 1.5%, to 6,506, its third straight loss and 11th in 15 trading days in March. Nine of 11 sectors were lower. Only energy (barely) and financial stocks were higher.The Nasdaq Composite fell 2% to 21,648. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 444 points to 45,577. Energy stocks were mostly lower. Exxon Mobil and Chevron were higher.The indexes, lower for the week, are down for the month. The Dow and Nasdaq have both lost nearly 10% since hitting 52-week highs: in February for the Dow and late October for the Nasdaq. A 10% drop from a recent peak is the popular definition of a correction.Bond yields and mortgage rates were also higher.Related: This Gulf oil stock is more about cash than crude

Small-town independent grocers have long served as the backbone of local communities, shaping regional identities and fostering customer loyalty that national chains often struggle to replicate.But today, the U.S. grocery landscape is undergoing a structural shift. Changing consumer behavior, persistent economic pressure, and intensifying competition from large-scale and non-traditional retailers are redefining how and where Americans buy food.Retail giants such as Walmart, Costco, Kroger, and Albertsons continue to expand their dominance through scale, pricing power, and extensive product assortments. The top four grocery retailers now account for 69% of total U.S. grocery spending, with Walmart alone contributing nearly 35%, according to Farm Action.For independent operators, the pressure is mounting. Many are being forced to adapt, consolidate, or exit the market altogether. However, one fast-growing regional grocery chain is finding opportunity in that disruption.Harps Food Stores expands with major acquisitionFounded in 1930, Harps Food Stores has quietly built a scalable growth model centered on acquiring independent grocers in underserved markets.The company, which currently operates 160 locations across five states, has entered into an agreement to acquire 18 stores from Dyer Foods, an independent grocery operator owned by the Hays family. Financial terms were not disclosed, but the transaction is expected to close by summer 2026.Once completed, Harps will expand to 178 locations across eight states, marking its entry into two new states and representing its largest acquisition in nearly six years.The deal includes 17 stores in western Tennessee and one in Kentucky.Acquired store locationsAlamoBellsBrownsvilleCovingtonDyersburgHallsHendersonHumboldtJacksonMillingtonNewbernSomervilleTiptonvilleTrentonMost of the 18 stores being acquired are Dyer-operated Food Rite locations, but one is a Piggly Wiggly, four are Save-A-Lots, and two are Cash Saver stores, according to Supermarket News.Harps also stated that store operations and employment will continue with minimal disruption during the transition and that the Food Rite, Save-A-Lot, and Piggly Wiggly stores will all continue to operate under their current banners.This move allows the company to maintain local brand identity through a unified operating model.

Harps Food Stores acquires 18 locations from Dyer Foods.Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Harps Food Stores’ small-town grocery expansion strategyThis latest acquisition aligns with Harps’ strategy of acquiring independent grocers in small markets where competition from larger chains is less saturated, but operational challenges remain.With this model, the company has more than doubled its footprint over the past six years.”We love small stores in small towns and these stores fit our strategy perfectly,” said Harps Food Stores CEO Kim Eskew in a statement. “We have the greatest respect for what the Hays family and their staff have been able to accomplish and look forward to having this great group of people join our company.”Recent acquisitionsJuly 2025: Acquired a James Super Save Foods location in Mena, Arkansas, according to The Shelby Report.May 2025: Acquired 10 Doc’s Food Stores locations in Oklahoma, according to the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.April 2025: Acquired a Craven Foods location in Fairfield Bay, Arkansas, according to Talk Business & Politics.2020: Acquired 20 Town & Country Grocers locations across northeastern Arkansas and Missouri, according to Grocery Dive.This approach allows Harps to scale efficiently while avoiding the higher costs of building new stores. Industry pressures continue to reshape local retailHarps’ growth comes as the broader retail environment is becoming increasingly challenging, especially for independent businesses.Economic uncertainty, rising operational costs, evolving consumer preferences, and intensifying competition from large-format and non-traditional retailers are forcing many grocers to rethink their business models.U.S. retailers are expected to close around 7,900 stores in 2026, down 4.5% from 2025, while 5,500 locations are projected to open, up 4.4%, according to Coresight’s U.S. Store Tracker 2026 Outlook.Although the pace of closures has slowed slightly compared to the previous year, the net loss of physical stores continues to disproportionately affect lower-income and rural communities.Approximately 17.1 million Americans, or 5.6% of the population, live in low-income, low-access census tracts, meaning they are located more than one mile or 20 miles from the nearest supermarket, according to the USDA’s Food Access Research Atlas.”For consumers, the fallout means fewer choices, diminished access to in-person shopping, and, in some cases, higher prices due to reduced competition,” said Approved Funding President and Chief Lending Officer Shmuel Shayowitz.More Retail Business News:111-year-old grocery chain closing more stores in 2026106-year-old retail brand operator closing all stores in bankruptcyWalmart moves to solve a major store frustrationScott Moses, partner and head of the grocery, pharmacy, and restaurants advisory group at New York-based Solomon Partners, spoke about rising competition from non-traditional grocers, Supermarket News reported.”For many years, I’ve been sounding the alarm about the rise of national/discount grocers— Walmart, Target, Costco, Amazon, Dollar General, Family Dollar, and Dollar Tree — and the existential threat that they pose to supermarket grocers, just as we’ve all seen over the last 20 years how department stores have been marginalized,” said Moses.What it means for the future of grocery retailHarps’ latest acquisition highlights a growing trend in grocery retail where consolidation is no longer optional; it’s a survival strategy.While regional players can still expand by acquiring local operators, the broader industry continues to lean in favor of large, well-capitalized chains, reshaping the future of food access in small towns across the U.S.Related: 106-year-old retail brand operator selling 170 stores in bankruptcy

Spring is here, which means we have officially entered home-buying season. During my career reporting on the housing market, I’ve found that this is about the time sellers start learning everything they can to get the most money possible from their sale. This includes finding the best time of year to sell your house. Not just the best season or month — but down to the best week.Real estate technology companies Zillow and Realtor.com have each released their 2026 reports on the best time to sell a home and maximize profits. And according to the latest Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report, receiving the best price possible was the main motivator for 58% of sellers.Nationally, Zillow data found that the last two weeks of May were the most lucrative time for people to list their homes. On the other hand, Realtor.com found that the week of April 12-18 was the best time to sell.The exact weeks differ between the two companies, but they share an important consideration: Although spring and summer are considered the prime home-buying season, spring may be the better time this year.Sometimes, sellers have to cut their listing prices. But the Realtor.com report noted that there are typically fewer price cuts in spring, because buyers are flocking to the housing market to kick off the home-buying season and beat the rush that often accompanies the summer months, when kids are out of school and families have more time for house hunting.Zillow says sellers could earn $6,000 moreAccording to Zillow, those selling a typical home in the U.S. could earn around $6,000 more when they list in the last two weeks of May, an increase of 1.7%. The company based this number on its 2025 Best Time to List analysis, which looked at the 35 largest metro areas in the country.Realtor.com put the potential profits just a little lower: $5,300 more when selling the week of April 12-18, compared to the average week. This is the equivalent of a 1.3% increase.Related: Fannie Mae predicts shifts in mortgage rates, housing marketTo determine the best week to sell a home, Realtor.com studied seasonal housing trends from 2018-2024. It removed 2020 from its analysis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company said it evaluated “competition from other sellers, listing prices, days on the market, the likelihood of price reductions, and homebuyer demand” when conducting its research. It did not include interest rates, because mortgage rates follow economic and political issues, not seasonal trends.The best time varies by local real estate marketIt’s crucial to note that the recommended weeks by Zillow and Realtor.com apply to the national level. Both companies’ reports drive home that the best time (with the highest potential earnings) depend on your local real estate market.For example, Zillow found that the last two weeks in May were indeed most profitable in metro areas such as Chicago, Miami, and Philadelphia. However, New York and Atlanta saw more earnings during the first two weeks of May. The last two weeks of April were better for Houston and San Antonio.There were even a few outliers, with peak times of early February in San Jose, late March in Austin, and the end of June for Baltimore.More on real estate and the housing market:Mortgage rates increase for three straight weeksHow the Federal Reserve impacts mortgage rates, housing marketRedfin reveals major shift in housing marketZillow also determined that you could earn more or less than the 1.7% ($6,000) markup during the peak season, depending on where you live. For instance, Boston sellers earned 3.4% more ($25,300) on average in 2025, and those in Seattle brought in 2.9% more ($22,600).Realtor.com noted that home sellers should look into their local market’s prime season and plan accordingly, if possible.Realtor.com reveals peak selling seasons by regionSo, how do home sellers know when the most profitable time is in their region? Realtor.com has some insights.With some exceptions, the best time in the South and West aligns with the best week nationwide (mid-April, according to Realtor.com).”In some markets, including in-demand coastal areas and tech hubs like San Jose, CA, and Seattle, the spring selling season is already in full swing, as buyers compete for a limited selection of for-sale homes,” said the report.Realtor.com said mid-April is usually best in the Midwest region, where home prices are a bit lower and inventory is more limited.The Sun Belt is a bit trickier to pin down. Cities such as Austin and Phoenix have a lot of inventory and are more of a buyer’s market than other parts of the U.S.
Source: Realtor.com
Related: Redfin reveals why now is the right time to refinance a mortgage