BUSINESS

Global business relies on stability to operate, and oil prices are the cornerstone of that stability. But oil supply shocks caused by the Iran war, which just concluded its fourth week, have upended that stability, sending the global economy into a tailspin, France 24 reported.Goldman Sachs analysts spent their last note trying to estimate the impact of higher oil prices on the U.S. labor market, and they came to three conclusions about where the U.S. labor market is headed. At first, the stated U.S. rationale for the attack was to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, many pointed out that the Trump administration said last year that the U.S. and Israel had already “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capacity.Israeli officials at the time did not agree with the “obliterated” adjective, but the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir both agreed that the attacks set Iran’s nuclear ambitions “back by years, I repeat, years.”Well, just seven months later, they are back bombing Iran, but this time the objective is less clear and has constantly shifted, The Washington Post reported.Once again, “stability” is the name of the game in the global economy. But since we don’t currently have that, we have to rely on Goldman Sachs analysts to tell us what will happen to U.S. labor next, based on their expertise.Goldman Sachs draws 3 conclusions about oil shock’s impact on U.S. labor marketBrent crude futures rose toward $111 per barrel on Friday, March 27, near the highest level since June 2022, on reports that the U.S. is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region, per Axios, potentially embroiling the U.S. in a much longer conflict in the Middle East.The last time gas prices were this high was following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Brent crude prices reached $123.64 per barrel.Goldman Sachs conclusions on the labor marketThe impact of higher gas prices on the labor market is more muted than it was 50 years ago. Job loss estimates from different sources generally align with the Federal Reserve’s basic model.Traditional job gains in certain industries from increased prices will be more subtle this time.”First, we find that while higher oil prices still tend to reduce job growth and raise unemployment, the impact is roughly one-third as large as in 1975-1999, likely reflecting the lower oil intensity of U.S. GDP and surge in domestic shale production,” Goldman analysts said. The second conclusion the team came to was that other data sources agree with the Federal Reserve’s FRB/US report’s conclusion. “These estimates suggest that the oil price shock implied by our strategists’ baseline oil price forecast would raise the unemployment rate by 0.1pp, which is one of the reasons that we expect the unemployment rate to rise 0.2pp in total to 4.6% by 2026Q3,” Goldman said. That impact mostly reflects lower hiring and modestly higher layoffs in industries most exposed to discretionary spending. Goldman’s final conclusion: Any follow-on job gains in certain industries that have been observed in the past will be more muted now.”Significant improvements in extraction productivity in recent years suggest that job gains will likely be more limited this time, even if oil production expands. Accounting for both job gains in the energy industry and job losses elsewhere, we estimate that higher oil prices will reduce payroll growth by roughly 10k per month on net through year-end,” Goldman says.

Experts expect the unemployment rate to rise 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% by 2026Q3.MoMo Productions/Getty Images

Chevron CEO bemoans market uncertainty amid Iran warThis week, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, speaking at the CERAWeek oil conference in Houston, was blunt about the current state of the oil industry. “They’re unpredictable,” Wirth told Bloomberg Television. “They’re volatile. The market opened up last night in Asia with some anxiety. Related: Morgan Stanley names top auto pick if gas prices stay high”Things in the Middle East looked like they were going to escalate,” he added. “The president came out with a message saying, ‘No, we’re removing this deadline that we imposed over the weekend,’ and the markets traded off. The fundamentals are very tight out there. “It will take time to rebuild inventories of the right grades of crude, the right types of products around the world to meet the demand,” Wirth explained, according to SeekingAlpha.As for when production will get back to normal, Wirth says it is “an uncertainty that we’re going to have to deal with as we go forward. We’ve seen tightness in distillate products like diesel and jet fuel, and in particular, Asia is facing some real concerns about supply.”And while oil futures have gone haywire since the war started, Wirth says they have not fully priced in the scale of the supply disruption that was triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The market is instead trading on “scant information” and “perception,” while the physical supply of oil is probably tighter than the futures contracts suggest.Related: U.S. economy will show resilience, despite rising oil prices

United Parcel Service investors counting on a dividend raise this year are going to be disappointed.That message came straight from UPS (UPS) CFO Brian Dykes, who made it crystal clear that the shipping giant is freezing its dividend in 2026. For anyone holding UPS as a dividend stock, this is a significant development worth understanding.The company has been paying out about 80% to 90% of its net income as dividends. That’s well above its long-term target of 50% to 60%.In other words, UPS is distributing more than it comfortably should, and management knows it.”We don’t expect the dividend to increase, and we’re not going to increase it in 2026…. But we are going to work ourselves back toward that target,” Dykes said during a March conference.So what’s going on at one of America’s most iconic dividend stocks? A lot, actually.UPS is a dividend stock under pressureMost people know UPS as the brown-truck company that shows up at their door. But it’s also one of the largest logistics networks on the planet, moving roughly 6% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) annually.The company has been going through one of the most dramatic transformations in its 118-year history. At its center is a deliberate decision to dump a large chunk of its Amazon business.Related: 30-year-old shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcyAt its peak, Amazon accounted for approximately 10% of UPS’s revenue, about $10 billion. Over the past two years, UPS has cut that relationship nearly in half, shedding approximately $5 billion in Amazon revenue and 2 million packages per day.Why? The Amazon business UPS is exiting is low-margin, high-volume work that’s increasingly handled by Amazon’s own delivery network. Rather than fighting for scraps, UPS is getting out and refocusing on higher-value customers: small businesses, health care logistics, and business-to-business (B2B) shipping.That pivot makes strategic sense long-term. But right now, it’s creating serious short-term pain.

UPS is exiting low-margin businesses.JEAN-CHRISTOPHE VERHAEGEN/ Getty Images

A pause on UPS dividend hikesThe first half of 2026 is shaping up to be rough for UPS. Three things are hitting the business at once.First, volumes are falling as the Amazon drawdown continues. Second, the company is transitioning its economy shipping product, called Ground Saver, back to the U.S. Postal Service, which carries transitional costs. Third, UPS is replacing its aging MD-11 aircraft fleet with new Boeing 767s, adding temporary lease expenses.All of that pressure is landing on the company’s income statement at the same time.For the first quarter of 2026, Dykes said domestic operating margins could land in the “mid-single digits”: a far cry from where UPS wants to be. More on dividend stocks:How much to invest in Ford stock for $1,000 in 2026 dividends189-year-old dividend stock offers 19% upside in March 2026Semiconductor dividend stock shows 40 percent upside as AI demand upFor context, UPS posted a 10.2% domestic operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is targeting a return to double-digit margins over time.The full-year 2026 guidance calls for roughly flat earnings per share (EPS) and consolidated revenue of around $89.7 billion, barely above the $88.7 billion reported in 2025.A dividend yield of almost 7%Here are the key dividend metrics UPS investors should know right now.Annual dividend: Approximately $6.56 per shareDividend yield: About 6.9% (based on recent share price levels)Dividend payout ratio (current): 80% to 90% of net incomeLong-term payout ratio target: 50% to 60% of net income2026 planned dividend outlay: Approximately $5.4 billion2026 estimated free cash flow: About $6.1 billion Annual dividend expense: Around $5.6 billionThe payout ratio is the number to watch. Until UPS gets margins moving back up, the dividend is frozen in place.What’s next for UPS stock?Dykes and CEO Carol Tomé both laid out a credible path to recovery for UPS.By the second half of 2026, the logistics behemoth expects to be running a leaner network, with 93 buildings already closed in 2025 and 24 more slated for the first half of this year. Automation is being deployed across the system, and facilities running automated operations cost 28% less per package than those running conventional operations.The company’s Digital Access Program, which connects small businesses to UPS services through online marketplaces, has grown from $150 million six years ago to more than $4 billion in 2025. That’s the kind of sticky, high-margin revenue that supports a healthy dividend stock over the long run.”Our strategy is not a shrink-the-company strategy,” Tomé said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “It’s a growth strategy in the best parts of the market.”For dividend investors, the message from Dykes is a cautious one: UPS is protecting the dividend, not growing it. Out of the 21 analysts covering UPS stock, nine recommend “buy,” nine recommend “hold,” and three recommend “sell.”The average UPS stock price target is $113, indicating an upside potential of 19% from current levels.Related: This Dow 30 dividend stock is up 100% in the past year

TheStreet aims to feature only the best products and services. If you buy something via one of our links, we may earn a commission.Why we love this dealThe front porch or backyard deck can be transformed into an outdoor oasis with the right additions. String lights, a weather-resistant rug, and planters are the little touches that tie it together, but it all starts with the patio furniture. For peacefully sipping your morning coffee and enjoying the sunrise, the bistro conversational set is a superb selection. It’s also less bulky than outdoor sofa-style seating and dining sets, so it’s well-suited for smaller spaces, too, like a condo or apartment balcony.Amazon is currently hosting its annual Big Spring Sale, and one of these outstanding deals is on the Murago 3-Piece Wicker Patio Bistro Set with 15% off. While it’s not a huge discount, this deal is particularly noteworthy because the set is Amazon’s no. 1 bestseller in patio bistro sets, and that’s likely because its regular price of $75 is so affordable. With this limited-time discount, it’s even more budget-friendly at only $64. If you take a look around Amazon’s website, you’ll realize that it’s quite rare to find a price point this low.Murago 3-Piece Wicker Patio Bistro Set, $64 (was $75) at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

Shop at AmazonWhy do shoppers love it?The 3-piece bistro set includes two wicker chairs and a matching coffee table, giving you a handy place for your beverages or latest read. Offering a classic style, the two chairs are constructed with a mix of metal and polyethylene rattan. This synthetic rattan looks as charming as the real thing, but it’s more durable and weather-resistant for longevity. Additionally, the material is UV-treated, so the chairs won’t fade in the sunlight. “Elegant and perfect for small spaces,” one shopper raved about the set. They continued to praise it, adding, “The black rattan design looks very modern and sophisticated.Related: Amazon is selling $22 outdoor solar lights during its Big Spring Sale, and they’re totally cordless”A beautiful, simple wicker set that looks great on the patio,” is how one shopper describes this outdoor furniture. They also appreciated that “the quality is good, and the cushions are comfortable.” The minimalist design of this wicker patio set maximizes comfort with thick cushions on each chair. The quality is clear in the craftsmanship, including the small touches, like a powder-coated finish for rust-resistance and suction cups on the bottom of the coffee table for stability. Details to know Pieces in the set: Two wicker chairs and an outdoor coffee table.Color options: Three colors are available, but only the solid black version is $64.Is assembly required?: Yes, this patio set will need to be assembled upon arrival.Over 2,000 of the patio bistro sets were sold in the past month alone, and we expect it will fly off the shelves even faster with this limited-time deal. If this patio set isn’t quite your style, there are other outdoor furniture deals to check out during Amazon’s Big Spring Sale.Shop more dealsBezseller 3-Piece Outdoor Patio Furniture Bistro Set, $76 (was $90) at AmazonBest Choice Products 3-Piece Outdoor Wicker Conversation Bistro Set, $120 (was $160) at AmazonDevoko 3-Piece Patio Bistro Set, $85 (was $120) at AmazonGrab the Murago 3-Piece Wicker Patio Bistro Set for just $64 while it’s on sale at Amazon. While the Big Spring Sale runs until March 31, that doesn’t mean this deal will, so add it to your shopping cart now to score all the savings.

Silver has bounced back after a volatile stretch. Spot silver is trading around $69 to $70 per ounce, recovering from a pullback that took prices as low as $67.75 on March 26. The metal had been trading as high as $72.60 on March 25 before sellers pushed it lower.The move back toward $70 reflects a combination of short-term macro factors and longer-term structural forces that have been building for years. Understanding both helps explain why silver has been one of the most closely watched commodities of 2026.What pushed silver lower and what brought it backThe pullback from the March 25 high was driven by a strengthening US dollar and rising real Treasury yields. Both raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like silver.The Fed’s signal that it expects only one rate cut in 2026 reinforced that pressure. Silver struggles when rate cut expectations fade.More Gold:Gold just saw its biggest decline since 1983: what’s nextGold and silver bugs face grim reality checkGold’s price is falling fast: Here’s what comes nextThe recovery reflects the market reasserting silver’s longer-term bull case. Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict have kept safe-haven demand alive. A slight pullback in the dollar index gave silver room to recover. And the underlying supply and demand fundamentals, which have been building for years, have not changed.The structural case for silver2026 is the sixth consecutive year of a global silver supply deficit. Mine supply is projected to reach approximately 1.05 billion ounces in 2026, its highest level in a decade. But industrial demand is still outpacing it.The accumulated deficit between 2021 and 2025 is estimated at roughly 900 million ounces, according to Peel Hunt. That sustained drawdown has depleted above-ground stockpiles to multi-year lows.Industrial applications now account for more than half of total silver consumption. The primary driver is solar energy.Silver is a key component in photovoltaic cells. Manufacturers have been reducing the amount used per panel through a process called thrifting. But overall PV demand still accounts for roughly 194 million ounces in 2026, according to BloombergNEF. Electric vehicles, power grid infrastructure, and electronics add to that demand.Key forces shaping silver in 2026Supply deficit. Six consecutive years of demand outpacing mine output has depleted above-ground stockpiles. Mine supply growth remains constrained because most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining.Solar demand. PV installations continue to expand globally despite per-panel silver usage declining. Even with thrifting, solar remains the single largest industrial consumer of the metal.China export restrictions. From January 2026, China implemented a new licensing regime for silver exports, restricting eligibility to larger producers. This has tightened global physical supply further.Macro backdrop. Expectations for eventual Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar trend, and elevated geopolitical risk all support silver as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset.

Analysts are mixed on silver prices.Hoppe/Getty Images

Where analysts see silver goingWall Street forecasts for silver in 2026 vary widely. J.P. Morgan projects silver could average $81 per ounce for the year. Peel Hunt raised its full-year forecast to $75 per ounce. ING is more conservative at around $55 per ounce.The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty. The key variables are the Fed’s rate path, the strength of the US dollar, and how industrial demand from China holds up through the rest of the year.The gold-to-silver ratio has narrowed significantly in 2026, indicating silver has been outperforming gold over recent months. A declining ratio historically coincides with strong precious metals bull markets and signals increasing institutional confidence in silver relative to gold.What the current price action means for investorsThe bounce from $67.75 back toward $70 is consistent with what multiple analysts have described as a market with a solid demand floor. Even during pullbacks, buyers have been returning at lower levels, supported by the structural deficit and ongoing industrial demand.Silver’s dual role as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset makes it more sensitive to economic data than gold. When growth concerns dominate, silver faces more pressure. When inflation and geopolitical risk dominate, silver tends to outperform.The current environment has elements of both. That is what explains much of the volatility seen this month.For investors watching the metal, the supply deficit story is the most durable fundamental. Six years of deficits and depleted stockpiles do not reverse quickly. The question is whether the macro environment cooperates enough to let that fundamental case play out in the price.Related: Silver’s glitter leaves speculators with a bad taste