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Anyone who has held a stock through a crash knows the relief of seeing it climb again. It feels like the damage is undone. Usually it isn’t. A stock that loses half its value must double just to break even.

That math is playing out across the S&P 500. The index’s 25 worst performers fell an average of 42.4% in the first half, according to Bespoke Investment Group data cited by Seeking Alpha. Since July, they’ve rebounded 34.6%. Bespoke described the group as a mix of consumer stocks and software names that investors expected AI to make obsolete.

Yet the group is still down about 22% for the year. A big rally on a shrunken base does not refill the hole.

Measured from 2025 closing prices, only three of the 25 are up for the year. They are Palantir Technologies (PLTR), ServiceNow (NOW), and PTC (PTC), and each got there a different way.

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Palantir earned its comeback with a blowout quarter

Palantir, which sells data software to governments and businesses, began 2026 at 155 times trailing earnings, according to 24/7 Wall St. Shares slid even as first-quarter revenue grew 85% because investors doubted the price, not the business.

The second quarter changed that debate. Revenue jumped 93% to $1.94 billion, according to Palantir’s earnings release. It also lifted its full-year forecast to about $8.15 billion, and CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “otherworldly.”

Palantir is up about 12% for 2026. It trades about 6% below its 52-week high of $212.94 and far above its low of $106.37, according to StockAnalysis.

Valuation is the catch. Palantir trades at about 105 times expected earnings. Its 30 analysts rate it a Buy, with a $207.62 average target. That leaves little upside before results on Monday, Nov. 2, which already face a high bar.

Palantir, ServiceNow, and PTC are the only three of the S&P 500’s 25 worst first-half performers now trading above their 2025 closing prices.asbe / Getty Images

ServiceNow’s cushion is thin heading into earnings

ServiceNow, whose software runs IT and HR tasks at big companies, took two hits.

First came the “SaaSpocalypse,” a sell-off on fears that businesses would build their own software with AI. S&P 500 software stocks fell more than 26% from late January to April, Reuters reported.

The second hit was its own. Shares fell nearly 15% on April 23, after ServiceNow blamed delayed Middle East deals for slower subscription growth, according to Reuters.

Results repaired the damage. Second quarter subscription revenue rose 24.5% to $3.88 billion, and the company raised its outlook, according to its earnings release.

Still, the comeback is fragile. ServiceNow sits less than 2% above its 2025 close of $153.19. It trades about 19% below its 52-week high of $192.97 and well above its low of $81.24.

The 49 analysts there rate it a Strong Buy, yet their average target of $156.54 matches today’s price. At about 35 times expected earnings, ServiceNow costs a third of Palantir’s multiple. Its report on Oct. 28 will decide whether it stays on this list.

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PTC’s comeback came from a buyer, not a turnaround

PTC makes the design software engineers use to build cars and factory equipment. Its software segment sank in the first half, even as recurring revenue kept growing, according to its third-quarter results.

On Oct. 5, Schneider Electric (SBGSY) agreed to buy PTC for $205 per share in cash, according to PTC. The price was a 42.3% premium to PTC’s prior close.

Without that bid, PTC would still be down about 17% for 2026, based on that premium and its 2025 close of $174.21. The stock did not recover. It was rescued.

PTC expects the deal to close by the third quarter of 2027, so the stock trades about 5% below the offer. Its 52-week range runs from $108.50 to $206.67, according to StockAnalysis, so Schneider’s price still sits below that high.

Analysts rate PTC a Hold, with a $201 average target close to the deal price.

The rest of the list shows a bounce is not a recovery

The other 22 stocks split two ways, based on Bespoke’s figures. Software names such as Accenture rallied hard but mostly have not climbed out of the hole, while several consumer brands kept falling.

More than doubling wasn’t enough for Accenture (ACN). Its 107.9% second-half gain followed a 53.6% drop, leaving it below its starting point, based on Bespoke’s figures.

Nike’s turnaround is dragging. Nike (NKE) fell another 6.7% in the second half, according to Bespoke, after CEO Elliott Hill said in March that the turnaround was “taking longer than I’d like,” amid tariffs and weak China sales, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Rivals are winning over yoga shoppers. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fell another 8.9% in the second half after cutting its sales forecast for the second time this year, as Americas revenue dropped 8% and Alo Yoga and Vuori gained ground, Reuters reported.

Cable fared worst. Charter Communications (CHTR) lost another 21.4% after a 31.9% first-half decline, as wireless carriers pulled away home internet customers with fixed-wireless deals, Reuters noted. Charter lost 172,000 internet customers in the second quarter alone, according to Quartz.

Owners of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) held all 25 throughout. Few noticed, because the winners carried the average.

The bigger lesson is what ended these slumps. Palantir and ServiceNow needed earnings proof, and PTC needed a buyer.

When markets dump an entire industry on one fear, corporate buyers start doing the math investors abandoned.

Silver Lake is reportedly in talks to buy another stock on the list, Workday (WDAY), as Reuters confirmed. This suggests that Schneider won’t be the last.

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In spite of rising gas prices and general inflation, Americans aren’t letting financial fears put a damper on their holiday celebrations, according to the QuickBooks 2026 Holiday Shopping Survey. The report found that consumers plan to spend 5.7% more this year, or $278 billion. It’s the third consecutive year that number has risen.

However, it’s not without sacrifice. The study showed that 19% of lower-income shoppers will cut back on essentials to afford holiday splurges. Just 7% of higher income shoppers said they will do the same to fit the holidays into their budgets.

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Holiday Giving Comes at a Higher Cost for Lower-Income Shoppers

The spirit of giving matters more to lower-income households, even amidst financial struggles. Nearly half (46%) of lower-income shoppers said that giving matters more to them this year than in the past, compared to 38% of middle-income shoppers and 32% of upper-income shoppers.

One-in-five lower-income households said they are willing to cut:

Groceries

Utilities

Healthcare

Fifteen percent of lower income shoppers are also looking to pick up a side gig or seasonal work to cover rising costs this holiday, compared to 7% of higher income shoppers.

Younger Shoppers Also Feel Financial Pressure

Gen Z and Millennial holiday shoppers are also feeling the crunch this year. Seventy percent of Gen Z and 65% of Millennials are concerned about inflation and tariffs.

The feelings of younger Americans mirror that of lower-income households, which makes sense since many Gen Z are just entering the workforce while Millennials may be at mid-level in their careers, not yet earning high enough salaries to keep pace with inflation. Nearly one-in-five (18%) of Gen Z said they’re likely to cut back on groceries or bills, compared to just 10% of Boomers.

Gen Z and Millennials are also willing to dig deep to get the perfect gifts for friends and family. Sixty-two percent of Gen Z and 49% of Millennials said that “giving to family and loved ones matters more to them this year than in years past,” compared to 35% of Gen X and 23% of Boomers.

Credit Card Use Across Demographics and Income Levels

Many Americans in lower income brackets can only fulfill their holiday visions through debt. More than one-quarter (26%) of lower-income shoppers said they don’t have a plan to pay off their credit cards in full each month after holiday shopping, while 67% of higher-income shoppers can and will.

Using credit to leverage rewards points, which you can use toward cash back, statement credits, gift cards, or travel can be a good way to stretch your holiday budget. But many lower-income shoppers said they’re using debit cards, instead, to better control their spending. Two-thirds (67%) of lower-income shoppers said they’re using debit vs. 35% of upper-income shoppers.

Buy Now, Pay Later Use Grows Amongst Younger Generations

Gen Z and Millennials are also looking at other ways to fund their holiday dreams. Nearly one-quarter (24%) of Millennials and 21% of Gen Z plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later services, compared to just 14% of Gen X and 6% of Boomers.

These programs can be appealing because they are easy to apply for and use, often have incentives or rewards, although the rewards aren’t typically as straightforward as credit card points or cashback. But the monthly payments can add up and BNPL programs sometimes come with interest charges or fees.

Also, if you miss BNPL payments and the account goes to collections, it could impact your credit score. In 2025, some programs began reporting repayment activity, including on-time and late payments, to the three major credit bureaus, according to an article published by Chase Bank.

Small Businesses and Social Shopping Could See a Boost

With people prepped to spend this holiday season and looking to make an impression with their gifts, small businesses are reaping the rewards. A portion of this year’s increased consumer spending is going to small businesses, with 35% of shoppers planning to spend more at small businesses this year. Only 9% said they plan to spend less.

Shoppers have solid reasons for “shopping small.”

47% want unique or higher quality gifts they can’t find anywhere else

46% want to support their community

38% feel they receive better customer service and expertise

If you’re finding the gifts your family wants on TikTok and Instagram shops, you’re not alone. Nearly one-quarter (23%) said they’re most likely to buy from a small business through a social platform, up from 16% in 2024.

Overall spend with small businesses is expected to increase, as well. Shoppers across demographics said they expect to spend 8.3% more, or a total of $118 billion, with small businesses this year. They also said they expect to use 43% of their holiday budget on small business purchases, up from 36% in 2024.

It’s no wonder that more than three-quarters (76%) of small businesses expect to make more money this holiday season than they did last year.

Bottom Line

Overall, holiday spending is up and more people are spending more with small businesses. But it will be a struggle for lower-income families, as well as younger generations, to buy the gifts they want to give.

The holiday sales, including Amazon Prime Big Deal Days, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, offer shoppers some inflation relief. American Express still encourages consumers to “Shop Small” on the Saturday after Thanksgiving and Black Friday, an initiative that was introduced in 2010 and now celebrates its 16th year. 

This story written for TheStreet by Nifty 50+

For years, retirees have followed a seemingly simple strategy: convert enough money to a Roth IRA in December to fill a favorable tax bracket, pay the tax, and enjoy tax-free growth later.

But in December 2026, that familiar playbook could come with a hidden price tag.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has changed the equation. A Roth conversion that looks smart on a tax-bracket chart could unexpectedly reduce a valuable senior deduction, push more Social Security benefits into taxable income, and trigger higher Medicare premiums years down the road.

The danger? These costs don’t always show up where retirees expect them to. And by the time they do, the conversion may be irreversible.

So before you make that year-end move, ask a critical question: Is filling your tax bracket still the smartest Roth conversion strategy, or could it leave you paying far more than you planned?

Also Read: Fidelity’s 4 Roth strategies could save your family a fortune in taxes

How the OBBBA’s senior deduction turns a bracket play into a steeper climb

The OBBBA introduced a temporary $6,000 deduction per eligible taxpayer aged 65 and older for tax years 2025 through 2028, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) confirmed.

For married couples in which both spouses qualify, the senior deduction totals $12,000. Combined with the $32,200 standard deduction, it can provide substantial tax relief. That benefit starts phasing out once modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) exceeds $150,000 on a joint return, shrinking by 6% above that floor, Fidelity reported. 

For a couple in which both spouses qualify, the $12,000 combined deduction fully phases out at a MAGI of $250,000. A $100,000 conversion that pushes a couple from $150,000 to $250,000 erases the full $12,000 write-off, increasing the taxable amount by $112,000.

Fidelity’s analysis of a similar scenario estimated that losing the deduction alone would add $2,856 in federal income taxes beyond the tax attributable to the conversion.

The IRS noted that couples with a MAGI below $150,000 can keep the full $47,500 in deductions, including the standard deduction, an extra $1,650 for each qualifying spouse based on age, and the senior deduction.

Medicare’s IRMAA cliff adds surcharges that arrive 2 years late

Medicare’s Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) relies on income from two years prior to set premiums, Medicare confirmed. 

Kiplinger described the surcharge as a cliff because crossing a bracket by a single dollar triggers the full tier’s surcharge for the year.

A 2026 conversion affects 2028 Medicare costs, and a voluntary Roth conversion does not qualify as a life-changing event for an appeal, the Social Security Administration (SSA) confirmed.

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Joint filers whose 2024 MAGI exceeded $218,000 face an additional $81.20 per person per month in Part B surcharges and $14.50 in Part D surcharges, the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services reported.

That totals roughly $2,297 annually for a couple, and higher tiers climb sharply, with the top bracket adding $487 per person per month in Part B alone.

A retiree who triggers even the first IRMAA tier while converting in the 24% bracket is paying far more than 24% on that income. Fidelity’s analysis indicates that the combined load of the bracket charge, the lost senior deduction, and the Medicare surcharge drives the effective rate past 30%.

Medicare’s IRMAA surcharge can raise retirement costs two years after a Roth conversion, making tax planning essential for retirees approaching income thresholds.Westend61 / Getty Images

Social Security’s 85% threshold compounds every converted dollar

Social Security benefits become partially taxable once combined income exceeds thresholds that haven’t changed since they were set decades ago.

Combined income is adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of benefits, and for married couples filing jointly, up to 85% of benefits become taxable once that figure exceeds $44,000, the IRS noted.

Roth conversion income counts toward adjusted gross income, so a sizable conversion can push a retiree over the second combined-income threshold. 

A couple receiving $40,000 in annual Social Security benefits who moves from the 50% inclusion tier into the 85% tier can see up to an additional $14,000 of previously sheltered benefits pulled into the taxable column.

Tom Callahan, certified financial planner at Range Financial Advisors, warned that skipping conversions to dodge these surcharges can backfire over the long term of a retirement. 

<strong>The Roth conversion you skip this year to avoid IRMAA in early retirement can reappear later as a larger Medicare surcharge and a larger RMD, because the pretax IRA kept growing</strong>.

Fidelity’s analysis emphasizes that conversion sizing affects the retiree’s effective rate more than the binary choice of whether to convert, with the math shifting at every income level.

How retirees can approach a year-end Roth conversion in 2026

Retirees planning a conversion before Dec. 31, 2026, should project their MAGI at several conversion levels to identify where each hidden cost activates, Fidelity recommended.

For retirees nearing the senior deduction or state and local tax (SALT) deduction phaseout thresholds, Fidelity advised spreading conversions across several years to help manage the tax impact.

A Roth conversion completed before age 63 generally cannot affect Medicare premiums through the standard two-year IRMAA lookback, Q3 Advisors reported, since most people become eligible for Medicare at 65. Individual circumstances and Medicare enrollment timing can affect how this rule applies.

Callahan recommends evaluating the full financial picture rather than optimizing around any single year’s Medicare premium. This includes projected required minimum distributions (RMDs) at ages 75 and 80, the potential tax impact on a surviving spouse filing as single, and the taxes heirs could face on inherited retirement accounts.

The goal, Callahan noted, is to minimize taxes over a lifetime rather than to avoid a surcharge in any one year.

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Microsoft (MSFT) has spent the past two years committing enormous sums to artificial intelligence. In the September 2025 quarter alone, the company spent nearly $35 billion on AI infrastructure, a 74% increase from the same period a year earlier.

Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood told analysts that capital expenditure growth would be even faster in fiscal 2026. That level of investment carries a cost, and the company has been working to offset it through persistent reductions in labor costs.

On Oct. 26, Chief People Officer Amy Coleman sent a memo to employees announcing a new program called the Voluntary Exit Offer. Coleman described it as a way to give eligible workers more ways to shape their next professional step, with financial support and career-planning resources available to those who choose to leave. The offer is time-limited, and employees who receive it will have until early December to decide.

The scale of what Microsoft is putting on the table is significant. The company is making the offer available to roughly 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its total global workforce, across four countries.

What the program covers and who can apply

The offer applies to employees in the U.S., Canada, India and the U.K. at internal level 70 and below. Eligible workers will receive details directly by email. Microsoft set the decision deadline for early December. Workers who accept are scheduled to exit by the end of the year.

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Not every employee at those levels is included. The offer excludes sales teams, certain engineering groups and some corporate functions. Microsoft said participation varies by business unit, based on each team’s priorities, customer commitments and workforce needs.

Microsoft described the program as voluntary and time-limited. The company said eligible employees will receive financial support and access to career-planning resources if they choose to accept, but workers are under no obligation to do so.

In the memo, Coleman said the offer reflects Microsoft’s effort to create “greater flexibility” and give employees “more ways to shape their next chapter.” The company did not provide additional details on which career-planning resources would be made available.

How the severance is structured

Microsoft has not released the full terms of the Voluntary Exit Offer. The company said the package resembles prior severance rounds but gave no breakdown. In the U.S., earlier packages covered at least 60 days of base pay, running on the regular payroll schedule rather than paid out as a lump sum on the last day.

For most employees, total severance can reach up to 39 weeks of base pay, depending on seniority and tenure. Workers at internal levels 64 and below received one week of base pay for every six months of service in prior rounds. Employees at levels 65 through 67 received two weeks of base pay for every six months of service, according to offers reviewed by Business Insider.

Microsoft said there are no plans for another buyout program after this one closes. The company framed the current offer as a standalone, time-limited opportunity rather than the first of multiple rounds.

Workers who are weighing the offer should review the complete written terms carefully. Severance payments are typically taxable as ordinary income, and the value of the package depends on tenure, internal level, the treatment of any bonus or equity awards and what healthcare coverage looks like after the employment end date.

The company is making the offer available to roughly 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its total global workforce.picture alliance / Getty Images

What is driving the push

The Voluntary Exit Offer follows Microsoft’s Voluntary Retirement Program, which was made available to roughly 9,000 employees who met age and tenure criteria. About one-third of eligible workers accepted that offer, which the company said was in line with its expectations at the time.

Microsoft also cut 4,800 jobs in 2026 through involuntary layoffs. Those cuts came as the company was increasing capital spending on AI infrastructure and stepping back from some older business lines.

A voluntary program gives Microsoft an alternative. Workers who accept leave on their own terms create less friction than a layoff round. The downside is that the company cannot choose who goes. Employees with the most marketable skills are often the first to take a buyout.

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Microsoft spent nearly $35 billion on AI infrastructure in a single quarter and is now handing out checks for 60,000 employees to go. The company says the program gives workers more control over their next step.

It also trims a payroll Microsoft has been working to shrink while it redirects spending toward AI. Involuntary layoffs generate news coverage, employee lawsuits and morale problems. This program, structured properly, sidesteps most of that.

Whether the offer is genuinely good for a given worker depends on the individual. For some, it is a clean exit with severance they would not otherwise have. For others, it means giving up a role that was not actually at risk. Microsoft has no incentive to help workers tell the difference.

What employees should think through before deciding

Microsoft set the decision deadline for early December, giving eligible workers roughly six weeks from when offer emails go out. The program closes at that point. Microsoft has said there are no plans for a follow-up round.

The severance amount is one factor, but not the only one. The total value of accepting depends on how long the worker has been at the company, their internal level, how their equity awards are treated at the point of exit and whether any performance bonus is included or forfeited. Workers at higher internal levels with longer tenures will receive materially different packages than newer employees at lower levels.

Health coverage is a separate question from severance. Employees need to check when their coverage ends after the exit date and what replacing it would cost out of pocket. Severance is taxed as ordinary income. Workers who take a large payout in a single calendar year may end the year in a higher bracket than they expected.

Six weeks covers a lot of ground. Workers need to read the actual offer document, understand how their equity is treated at exit and figure out what their tax bill looks like if a large severance payment lands in a single calendar year. That is before accounting for what comes next in the career. Microsoft picked that timeline. It did not have to be six weeks. Workers should factor in who benefits when that clock runs short.

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