SUCCESS

Before a single AI model is trained, a sprawling supply chain has to deliver. Designers like Nvidia and AMD draft the processors, memory makers supply the bandwidth, and cloud giants build out the infrastructure.

But unlike the rest of the chain, the manufacturing layer has no viable backup, making Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) the one bottleneck the AI boom cannot route around.

Most layers in that chain have a fallback, even if it is slow and costly. The manufacturing layer does not. In my view, TSMC is the one link the AI industry cannot route around, and without it the whole buildout would grind to a halt.

TSMC is a contract chipmaker, or foundry, meaning it builds chips that other companies design. It held 72.5% of the global foundry market in the second quarter, according to TrendForce. Its closest rival had just 5.9%, leaving AI chip designers with few viable alternatives.

That dominance is why Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, mattered. TSMC reported record third-quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, or about $46.7 billion, up 50% from a year earlier, according to Reuters.

Its customers include Nvidia, AMD and Apple (AAPL).

The real question is whether investors had already paid for that record before it landed. My answer is mostly yes, and the stock’s behavior suggests Wall Street agrees.

Read more: History of TSMC & its stock: Company timeline, facts & milestones

The surprise was gone before the number arrived

TSMC reports sales every month, which takes much of the drama out of its quarterly figures. By Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, July and August revenue had already reached about NT$982 billion, according to Focus Taiwan. That was roughly two-thirds of the quarter, and analysts already saw TSMC on track to meet or beat guidance.

September filled in the rest. Revenue rose 54.6% from a year earlier but slipped 0.6% from August, according to TSMC’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

That small dip is not a warning sign, but it shows the quarter ended on a high plateau rather than a fresh climb.

The stock reacted like a story already told. TSM fell about 2% on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, and slipped again in premarket trading on Thursday, according to Stock Analysis.

Barron’s noted that tech stocks were falling even as TSMC’s sales sent a positive signal for the AI trade.

TSMC reported record third quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% from a year earlier, ahead of its full results on Oct. 15.Yuichiro Chino / Getty Images

TSM stock is priced for strength, not perfection

TSM traded as low as $266.82 over the past year. It then hit a record high of $487.47 on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, three days before the revenue report, price history shows. Investors bought the good news well before it arrived.

Even so, the valuation is not stretched. TSM trades at about 20 times forward earnings, while analysts expect earnings per share to grow about 34% in 2027, according to Stock Analysis forecasts. For a company growing that fast, I consider that multiple fair rather than expensive.

Wall Street broadly agrees. Of 21 analysts tracked by Stock Analysis, 20 rate TSM a Buy or Strong Buy, and none say Sell. Their average price target of $555.01 sits about 17.5% above the stock’s latest close.

I think TSM remains a Buy for patient investors. Buying it right before Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, however, is a bet on guidance rather than on this quarter’s sales.

October 15 will test margins, not demand

Demand is proven. What the market has not fully priced is whether TSMC can protect its unusually high margins while ramping its newest 2nm chips. That is the question this quarter’s revenue cannot answer.

TSMC guided for a third-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67%, Seeking Alpha reported.

Its full-year 2025 gross margin was about 59.9%, according to Stock Analysis. New production lines are expensive to start, so holding the higher level through the 2nm ramp would be a genuine achievement.

More TSMC:

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TSMC’s rivals are losing ground, and the gap is growing

Chip stocks set for $229 billion payday before Nvidia ships a GPU

Analysts expect third-quarter net profit to jump 64% to NT$740.8 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate cited by Seeking Alpha. Profit growing faster than sales is now the base case. A margin miss would now hurt more than any revenue beat could help.

The outlook carries equal weight. Analysts already expect TSMC’s revenue to grow about 35% in 2027, according to Stock Analysis. I think the stock needs management to express confidence in meeting that bar on Oct. 15.

The AI trade now hinges on pricing power

When one supplier controls most of the world’s advanced chipmaking, its sales mostly echo what its customers already told investors. Its margins reveal something rarer: how much of the AI boom’s profit the factory keeps.

That is the shift worth remembering. The AI trade has moved past asking whether demand is real. Its next phase will be decided by pricing power, and no company will show that more clearly than the one making the chips everyone else designs.

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Why we love this deal

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You’ll often find affordable tablets with 10-inch screens, but when you size up, they tend to get more expensive. However, the Aorlym 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet at Walmart is only $120, thanks to 25% off its regular price of $160. With a larger screen and the latest Android software, it’s a limited-time deal you don’t want to miss.

Aorlym 2-in-1 Laptop and Tablet, $120 (was $160) at Walmart

Courtesy of Walmart

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Details to know

Screen size: The tablet has a 12-inch screen.

Operating system: It runs on Android 16.

RAM: It has up to 48 GB of RAM, with 8 GB physical and 40 GB virtual.

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Walmart shoppers say this two-in-one device is “worth every penny.” A customer said the battery lasts for a long time, and it’s a “wonderful tablet for the price.” One reviewer said that they’re not tech-savvy and had no issues navigating the tablet. Another shopper highlighted the size, saying it’s great for their eyes. 

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Key Takeaways

One-third of Americans with significant unsecured debt pulled money out of their retirement accounts for debt payments, per a 2026 Freedom Debt Relief survey.
The move costs you in two ways: Early withdrawal fees and missed investment gains that can decrease the size of your nest egg when you retire.
Advisors say withdrawing from a retirement account should be a last resort. Instead, try cutting spending, reducing your contributions (but still save enough to get the employer match) or refinancing your debts.

When you’re carrying significant debt, paying it down can monopolize your financial plan. But that doesn’t mean it should automatically come at the expense of other financial goals, like securing a comfortable retirement.
Yet that’s the reality for many Americans. One-third of respondents to a recent survey from Freedom Debt Relief and Money.com say they have pulled money from a retirement account to pay down debt in the last year. That’s roughly the same amount of people who have used a budget app to try to reduce their debt, and more than the 25% who have enrolled in a debt management plan offered by a credit counseling agency. In fact, withdrawing from retirement accounts like 401(k)s and individual retirement plans (IRAs) was among the most common debt reduction strategies named by the 1,800 survey respondents, who all had at least $10,000 in unsecured debt.
Paying off debt can provide some instant gratification. And for some, withdrawing from your retirement fund may truly be the best financial option. But the survey suggests that many people may be putting their long-term financial security at risk before considering other options.
The key is “finding the right balance between successful borrowing and prudent investing,” says David Demming Sr., a financial advisor and president of Demming Financial Services. “You need to find a happy medium.”

The risk of withdrawing from retirement savings to pay off debt
Marisa Bradbury, a financial advisor and managing director at Sigma Investment Counselors, says she would caution anyone about pulling money out of a retirement account to pay off debt.
“You may be getting rid of the debt today, but you’re giving up years of potential growth on that money,” Bradbury says.
That’s because the money you stash in your retirement savings accounts today is being invested into assets like stocks and bonds that are expected to grow significantly. And while you may think you can limit the harm by strategically timing your withdrawals, that’s exceptionally hard to do. Missing just 10 of the S&P 500 index’s best days between 2006 and 2025 would have cut the returns on a $10,000 investment by more than half, according to a report from J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s. Someone who kept their money fully invested would watch their balance grow to $80,619 at the end of those two decades, while someone who missed the market’s 10 best days would only have a $35,866 balance.
You’ll also face income taxes and a 10% penalty when you withdraw money before age 59 ½ from retirement accounts, depending on the type of account. Between the immediate costs in taxes and fees, plus the long-term costs in missing out on compounding growth on your investments, retirement account withdrawals end up being a very expensive way to pay off debt.
“The biggest concern is paying off the debt with retirement money and then ending up right back in debt because the underlying spending issue never changed,” Bradbury says.
What to do instead of withdrawing from retirement accounts
If you’re considering withdrawing from a 401(k) or IRA, Bradbury recommends first doing an honest assessment of whether you can cut your spending any more than you already have. This is where a budgeting app may come in handy, but you can also review your most recent bank statements to see where your money goes each month. Cutting or downgrading at least one subscription service, committing to only dining out once or twice or per month and negotiating with service providers can help.
Another option is to reduce your 401(k) contributions temporarily and redirect that money to debt bills. But make sure you’re not missing out on free money if your company offers a matching contribution, Demming says. Even if someone has $10,000 in unsecured debt, he would recommend they contribute enough to get the full employer match in their 401(k), then focus on paying down the credit card debt.
You can also try to refinance the debt at a lower rate, Bradbury says. One way to do this is with a zero-interest balance transfer credit card, which allows you to put all your money toward paying down principle. Just be sure to see how long the credit card comes with no interest; it’s typically less than 18 months.
Another option is consolidating your debt with a personal loan, which can combine multiple debts into a single monthly payment with a clear repayment timeline. If you qualify for more favorable terms, consolidation may also help reduce borrowing costs or make monthly payments more manageable. Be sure to carefully review the interest rate, APR, repayment term and any applicable fees when comparing options.
If you’re considering pulling from your 401(k) because you’re struggling to make your minimum payments — or you’ve already fallen behind — you may want to consider credit counseling or debt settlement. With the first, a counselor will help you make a budget and payment plan that typically includes a reduced interest rate. With debt settlement, you’ll work with a company that can negotiate with creditors to resolve eligible debts for less than the full amount owed. With either option, it’s important to fully understand the terms of your agreement, how long the process will take and any potential downsides.
There are some situations in which withdrawing money from retirement savings can make sense, like if someone is in a true financial emergency with no viable alternatives, Bradbury says.
“Sometimes it’s the least bad option, but I’d recommend exhausting the other choices first,” she adds.
And if you do end up deciding that a retirement account withdrawal is your “least bad option,” you can limit the harm by simultaneously creating an action plan to try to catch back up on your long-term savings. For instance, once you pay off your debt, you can commit to increasing your retirement account contributions.

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MLB is pressing for a salary cap system. In their latest proposal, should a cap system be implemented, they would seek a shortened regular season and a 7 game LDS format.

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Why we love this deal

Older homes are often lacking in terms of lighting and storage space, and it’s not uncommon to have a dark corner that never seems to get enough light from the windows or overhead fixtures. A floor lamp is a standard fix for this dimly lit spot, but there’s another solution that provides even more functionality to your room: a bookshelf with built-in lights. A set of shelves that are illuminated on every row gives you a nice way to display books, artwork, and memorabilia, but it also adds an indirect light source that brightens up the area. Additionally, it looks great in any corner, whether you place it in the living room, bedroom, or home office. 

The Vasagle 5-Tier Corner Shelf is a highly rated pick for its budget-friendly price tag and practical design. With a limited-time deal, it’s even more affordable at $48. Unlike many corner shelves, which just have basic white lights, this option has color-changing LED lights. With seven color modes and seven brightness settings, you can customize the lighting on this shelf to any mood or occasion. 

Vasagle 5-Tier Corner Shelf, $48 (was $54) at Amazon

Courtesy of Amazon

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Why do shoppers love it?

Measuring 9.8 inches long, 18.9 inches wide, and 57.7 inches tall, this five-tier shelf is perfectly sized to fit into tight corners. Every room has multiple corners in it, so it’s easy to find a spot to place it, even if you have a cramped floor plan. The simple design blends well with nearly any decor, but the simplicity also highlights the beauty of whatever you place on the shelves. 

For an even more attractive display, you can flip on the LED lights with a remote control. With the remote control, you can choose from seven colors, seven brightness levels, three flashing modes, and 3 flashing speeds for numerous lighting possibilities. One shopper raved, “It adds a little pizzazz to an empty corner in my living room.”

Related: Walmart has a farmhouse corner cabinet with 7 compartments for $140

There’s a 13.4-inch spacing between each shelf, which gives you ample room to showcase larger objects, like potted plants, a vase of flowers, or tall coffee table books. The unit is constructed with a sturdy steel frame, so the shelves are also strong enough to hold heavier items, with a weight capacity of 11 pounds each.

Details to know 

Dimensions: 9.8 inches long, 18.9 inches wide, and 57.7 inches tall

Colors: The bookshelf with LED lighting comes in black or brown.

Materials: Steel and particleboard. 

Is assembly required?: Yes. Assembling this shelf should take around 20 minutes, and all the tools you’ll need to set it up are included in the package. 

With an average rating of 4.6 out of five stars, the majority of shoppers are satisfied with their purchase. One reviewer wrote, “The LED lights work well and have strobe effects and useful dimmability settings, which make it usable as a lamp or nightlight. Overall, I’m very satisfied and would recommend this shelf.”

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For just $48, the Vasagle 5-Tier Corner Shelf is a simple way to upgrade your home with lighting and storage.

For homeowners thinking about moving, families looking to finance a car, and small-business owners rolling over debt, higher interest rates are far from being an abstract Wall Street story.

In fact, Americans have already adapted to the rising borrowing costs in ways that are easy to miss.

Goldman Sachs said the pressure is now broad-based across the U.S. economy, and in a note shared with me, the bank explores how persistently elevated rates could work their way through housing, consumer spending, and business investment over the coming quarters.

What stands out to me is how uneven the impact could be.

Cash-rich companies and savers might absorb higher rates relatively well, while borrowers, homebuyers, and smaller firms might feel the squeeze much sooner.

That makes the next phase less about whether rates are “high” and more about how long households and businesses are asked to live with them.

Goldman Sachs sees higher rates slowing the economy

Goldman Sachs recently made a surprising call on interest rates, saying the Federal Reserve would likely deliver just one more rate hike in December, then begin three cuts in the second half of 2027.

At the same time, the bank sees the 10-year Treasury yield fall from 5.3% to 4.4% by the end of next year. Under that path, Goldman estimates higher rates will shave off just about 0.2 percentage points from 2027 GDP growth, leaving the economy near its estimated 2.3% potential growth rate.

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I think the important part is the alternative scenario. 

If rates simply stay around current levels, Goldman sees the GDP drag rising to slightly more than 0.5 percentage points. That’s far from being a recession forecast, but it materially changes the available cushion if another shock hits. 

The latest economic data makes that distinction even more pertinent. September payrolls increased by just 29,000, as reported by Reuters, while unemployment rose to 4.2%, suggesting hiring has cooled.

Yet August consumer spending jumped 0.9%, and retail sales rose 1.2%, which shows households haven’t stopped spending. 

Meanwhile, the Fed’s policy rate is already 3.75% to 4%, and Governor Christopher Waller said this week that additional hikes may still be needed, Reuters noted, even if policymakers have flexibility over timing.

That leaves me focused on duration. It’s clear that the economy has absorbed high rates surprisingly well so far, but Goldman’s work suggests that the length of time rates stay high now matters almost as much as how high they ultimately go.

Goldman Sachs says higher rates are reshaping housing, spending, and business investment.Andrew Harnik / Getty Images

Housing feels the squeeze first, but consumers and businesses follow

Perhaps the clearest pressure point is housing. 

Mortgage rates have risen more than a percentage point since February, leaving more than 90% of borrowers with mortgages below current market rates. That “lock-in” effect discourages existing homeowners from moving and forces prospective buyers to finance homes at substantially higher monthly costs.

Goldman expects higher rates to subtract about 2 percentage points from annualized residential-investment growth in the fourth quarter, with roughly a 1-point average drag in 2027. 

Conditions have already tightened further since the report’s underlying data. The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.49%, its highest level in nearly three years. August housing starts fell 2.6% from July. 

Consumers look better insulated, but not immune. 

Goldman estimated that higher rates reduce 2027 consumption growth by about 0.2 percentage points, primarily by making credit-financed purchases such as vehicles and other durable goods less attractive. Higher interest income offsets some of that because U.S. households are net lenders overall. 

I see the business side as the sleeper issue. 

Goldman estimated that higher refinancing costs could subtract around 0.3 percentage points from annual capex growth, with small businesses particularly exposed because roughly half their debt carries variable rates. Large corporations have longer debt maturities, slowing the hit. 

AI spending is a notable exception. 

Goldman said hyperscalers account for more than two-thirds of U.S. AI investment and have so far shown little sensitivity to higher funding costs.

That creates an increasingly uneven economy where capital-rich AI leaders can keep spending while housing, small businesses, and credit-dependent consumers absorb the rate shock first.

The rate path matters more than the headline rate for investors

So in essence, Goldman is making a conditional call on the U.S. economy.

If long-term yields retreat as Goldman expects, growth might remain reasonably resilient despite weaker housing, softer consumption, and higher refinancing costs.

On the flip side, if yields stay near current levels, the drag compounds through housing, corporate investment, consumer wealth, and eventually government finances.

That last channel matters for markets. 

Goldman estimated that persistently elevated rates could push publicly held federal debt to 132% of GDP by 2035, roughly 10 percentage points above its baseline, while higher yields could also limit stock market upside, weakening the household wealth effect. 

For investors, I would watch 10-year Treasury yields rather than Fed headlines alone. Housing stocks, REITs, utilities, smaller companies, and highly leveraged businesses should remain more rate-sensitive, while cash-rich AI hyperscalers appear better insulated.

The next major checkpoint is the September CPI, which arrives on Oct. 14, and if inflation keeps rates elevated, Goldman’s downside scenario becomes increasingly relevant. If yields begin retreating, the economy has considerably more room to keep expanding.

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The research firm sees tokenized stocks, bonds and loans creating new markets for trading and lending, with fee-generating platforms and companies poised to benefit.