The cost of living was a crucial or major factor for 88% of voters in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to CNN exit poll figures.
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Political Betting Slumps On Prediction Markets As Crypto And Sports Boom
Political Betting Slumps On Prediction Markets As Crypto And Sports Boom
Americans head to the voting booths today with Democrats favored to take control of both the House and Senate according to mainstream polls and prediction markets. Attention has shifted to prediction markets, where the implied probability of a Democratic sweep stands at roughly 75%, down slightly from 78% earlier this morning.The attention on prediction markets over the last few years has not translated into stronger midterm trading. Bloomberg’s report from earlier today shows political trading on these platforms has struggled, even as sports and crypto betting have jumped. Election-related turnover on Kalshi was roughly unchanged in the final week before the midterms compared with the same period before the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket’s election volume fell significantly. Meanwhile, overall trading across both betting platforms has increased more than twentyfold since October 2024, which may suggest users are more interested in crypto and sports bets than political outcomes.The Bloomberg report cited data from last month showing that political betting on Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for just 1% of trading, down from two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election.”Limited trading interest in the midterms represents a problem for prediction markets,” the outlet said.Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, said both betting platforms “need to prove to their investors that they have another business,” adding, “They also need to prove to all these other people, regulators, judges, that the more socially valuable part of prediction markets is important.”A separate report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective showed that liquidity in almost all midterm election markets on both betting platforms is so low that it would take only a few thousand dollars to move their forecasts meaningfully.”When you introduce tens of thousands of markets, but not all of them have national prominence or are able to attract betting volume, that opens up a lot of vulnerabilities where a savvy, potentially malicious actor could go in and bet a small amount of money and skew the odds in one way or another,” said David Szakonyi, co-founder of the collective and a political science professor at George Washington University.The current Polymarket probability of a Democratic sweep stands at 75% as of early Tuesday afternoon.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/03/2026 – 20:30
Democrats score major Senate victory as Pappas defeats Trump-backed Republican in key battleground
The Fox News Decision Desk projects that Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire will defeat former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in a competitive and expensive swing state race.With 19.18% of the votes reported, Papas captured 60.6% compared to Sununu receiving 37.61% of the votes, according to Fox News Decision Desk. He will succeed retiring longtime Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.The victory by Pappas, a four-term congressman, is a boost for his party as the race was viewed as a must-hold for the Democrats as they try to win back the Senate majority from the GOP in the midterm elections.Sununu, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump but kept his distance from the president, was aiming to return to the U.S. Senate after 18 years away. Sununu repeatedly argued that Pappas had “been in Washington for 8 years and hasn’t delivered for New Hampshire.””He has attempted very little in Congress. He’s accomplished even less,” Sununu told Fox News Digital recently. And he charged that Pappas would be “a rubber stamp for the far left.”DEMOCRACY 2026: STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FOX NEWS ELECTION HUBBut Pappas, noting that he’s “been reelected three times in one of the toughest congressional districts in the country,” told Fox News Digital “I work with people across the aisle, and I’ve been rated as one of the most bipartisan Democrats in the House.””I’ve worked across the aisle on fentanyl scheduling to make sure that fentanyl analogs are Schedule One and that we’re able to stay ahead of the cartels and the drugs that they’re pushing into this country. I challenged Joe Biden on the border.”Pappas, a co-owner of the famed Puritan Backroom restaurant, which has been a family run business for over a century and is known for its chicken tenders and as a must-stop in Manchester for politicians, was elected to New Hampshire’s five-member Executive Council before winning a seat in Congress.SIGN UP TO GET THE POLITICS NEWSLETTERHe defeated a far-left socialist rival by double-digits in the state’s early September primary to capture the Democratic Senate nomination.Pappas and Democrats repeatedly anchored Sununu to Trump, whose approval ratings are well underwater in New Hampshire and around the country.But Sununu told Fox News Digital, “This election is about New Hampshire. It’s about who’s going to give New Hampshire the strong independent voice we need in Washington, and that will be me…this is a six-year term. Donald Trump will be out of office in two years, and the question I have for voters is who’s going to lead the country and the Senate in the right direction for New Hampshire.”Sununu spent six years in the U.S. House before winning election to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. But he lost his 2008 rematch with Shaheen.Sununu enjoyed plenty of name recognition in New Hampshire as he bid to return to the Senate. His father, John E. Sununu, served six years as governor before heading to Washington, D.C., as then-President George H.W. Bush’s White House chief of staff. And one of his younger brothers, Chris Sununu, recently served eight years as governor before taking a break from politics.
JUST IN: Ashley Moody Beats Angie Nixon in Florida Senate Race
Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody – State of Florida photo
Incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody has been projected to win her special election against radical leftist Angie Nixon for US Senate in Florida.
Radical left Democrat Angie Nixon has previously called for President Trump to be “arrested and held accountable” and called for Moody to be “locked up and punished in jail for what she has done.”
Nobody even knows what she was talking about.
Nixon took an early lead in Palm Beach County, with Steve Kornacki predicting she could win if she continued this trend.
“At this level, if it landed here, I’d say that might be just what Nixon needs in a county like this to have a shot statewide,” Kornacki said early on.
WATCH:
But now, she’s a failed Senate candidate.
Decision Desk called the race at approximately 8 pm ET.
Decision Desk HQ projects Ashley Moody wins the FL US Senate Special Election General
#DecisionMade: 8:00 PM EST
Follow live results here: https://t.co/7jQaQp0Drh https://t.co/rGnyGx1Duu
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2026
The post JUST IN: Ashley Moody Beats Angie Nixon in Florida Senate Race appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Haynes Furniture to shut flagship store as 128-year-old legacy comes to end
Shopping for furniture, whether for home or office, is a very personal and thought-provoking activity. From finding a color and size that match your taste and go with the rest of the space to choosing a reliable retailer, the process can often be exhausting.
For generations, furniture shoppers have relied on familiar retailers when purchasing everything from living room sofas to bedroom sets and mattresses. But several longstanding furniture chains are disappearing as the industry struggles with sluggish demand and changing consumer spending habits.
According to the National Retail Federation’s September 2026 Retail Monitor, sales at furniture and home furnishings retailers declined 2.7% year over year, making it the only retail category to report a year-over-year decline.
The industry’s struggles are now becoming increasingly visible, leading to significant store closures.
Earlier this year, Value City Furniture and American Signature Furniture announced plans to close their remaining 89 locations following their parent company’s bankruptcy filing. Meanwhile, home furnishings retailer At Home has closed 31 stores as part of a restructuring that began in 2025.
Now, another over-a-century-old furniture retailer is preparing to close a location that has served as both its flagship showroom and corporate headquarters.
Haynes Furniture, a family-owned furniture chain founded in Virginia in 1898, has revealed new details about the permanent closure of its Virginia Beach facility, including when operations are expected to end and how many employees will be affected.
Haynes Furniture flagship store closes, 83 impacted
Haynes Furniture began as a small Virginia furniture business more than 128 years ago. The Strelitz family took over the business in 1930 and expanded it into a regional retailer selling furniture, mattresses and home furnishings.
The company also established The Dump Luxe Furniture Outlet, which offered discounted luxury furniture, including brand-name closeouts and overstocks. At the time it announced its shutdown, the company operated four Haynes Furniture stores in Virginia and eight The Dump locations across five states.
More Retail:
Kroger cuts discounts, promises pricing changes
Walmart gets aggressive when it comes to holiday sales
Costco copies a popular Trader Joe’s collectible
On October 8, the retailer announced that all 12 locations would permanently close, ending more than a century of operations.
As TheStreet previously reported, the company launched liquidation sales across its remaining stores but did not provide a definitive closing date or disclose how many employees would lose their jobs.
A newly filed government notice now provides some additional details.
The October 30 Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) reveals the closure of Haynes Furniture’s flagship store, its headquarters, at 5324 Virginia Beach Boulevard in Virginia Beach.
The closure is expected to take place between February 15 and February 28, 2027, affecting approximately 83 employees. The company said some employees could remain beyond that period and separation dates could change depending on business conditions.
The affected employees include 20 sales consultants, customer service representatives, store managers and merchandise-handling workers. The filing also lists several senior corporate positions, including the chief executive officer, chief financial officer, chief information officer and senior vice president of retail operations.
Haynes said the closure would be permanent and affected employees were not expected to be recalled.
“The decision to close the facility reflects current business conditions and the steps necessary to wind down operations,” the company stated in its WARN filing.
As the company page declares. All stores are closing and this is the final chance for shoppers to buy anything.
Haynes Furniture’s recent WARN lists the closure of headquarters, and all stores are now set to close.Vukasin Ljustina / Getty Images
Haynes Furniture winds down operations after 128 years
The company’s shutdown follows an October announcement that it would discontinue both the Haynes Furniture and The Dump brands. Haynes Executive Chairman E.J. Strelitz, whose family has operated the business for generations, described the decision as a difficult end to the retailer’s history.
“This is a bittersweet ending, filled with gratitude for four generations of customers and employees,” Strelitz said in the company’s October 8 announcement.
Strelitz also said he was looking forward to retirement and spending more time contributing to the community. The company enlisted retail liquidation firm SB360 Capital Partners to oversee its going-out-of-business sales, which began October 8.
The sales feature furniture, mattresses and rugs, with additional markdowns planned throughout the liquidation process.
According to Haynes Furniture’s official FAQ, all purchases made beginning October 8, 2026, are final, with no refunds or exchanges. Customers who purchased merchandise before that date can contact the company’s customer service department for assistance.
The retailer has not announced a final shopping day for its Virginia Beach location or its other stores, despite the February closure timeline outlined in the WARN notice.
Latest Retail NewsVerizon and AT&T quietly make major workforce shift amid pressureRyanair CEO sends troubling prediction on 2027 airfaresAnytime Fitness customers have a new worry about their local gymsClorox CEO reveals troubling sign for U.S. economy
New York Times, Federal Reserve, Harvard, Columbia Employees Pour Campaign Cash Into Hard-Left Candidates
Employees of the New York Times, the Federal Reserve, Harvard, and Columbia have poured thousands of dollars in campaign cash into Democratic political campaigns—including some of the most extreme far-left candidates—a Washington Free Beacon review found.
President Trump highlighted the broader issue in an Election Day comment, characterizing the Federal Reserve as preventing a balanced budget with its high interest rates because it is “populated by Obama and Biden people, and they don’t want to do the right thing.”
The Fed is just one example of institutions that congratulate themselves as being elite, meritocratic, and independent, yet in reality—as the campaign finance records indicate—function as part of the Democratic or even farther left political machine.
The New York Times “ethical journalism” handbook states: “Staff members may not give money to, or solicit money for, any political candidate or election cause. Political giving by a staff member would carry a great risk of feeding a false impression that The Times is taking sides.” Yet among the contributions uncovered by the Free Beacon review were a $1,000 contribution to Democratic congressional candidate Beth Macy from Harry Stevens. The Times website describes him as “a New York Times reporter and graphics editor covering climate change” and who says there, “I do not participate in political causes, nor do I make political donations.” Stevens and a New York Times spokesman didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment on the apparent donation.
New York Times staffers also contributed to the campaign of Democratic congressional candidate Brad Lander, who ran a Zohran Mamdani-backed primary challenge against an incumbent Democratic congressman, Dan Goldman, that was almost entirely premised on the attack that Goldman had been insufficiently anti-Israel. Michael Hoffman, a New York Times software engineer, gave Lander’s campaign $500, and Eric Stone, a New York Times data analyst, gave Lander’s campaign $250.
A longtime New York Times obituary editor, Peter Keepnews, who had a byline on an obituary published in the paper in May 2026, has made hundreds of campaign contributions to Democrats. Records for some of them list the New York Times as his employer, while others list him as not employed. He made a $100 contribution to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on March 23, 2025, listing the New York Times as his employer. Keepnews, who reportedly left the paper in October 2025, declined to be quoted on the record about his contributions, several of which appear to have been made before October 2025.
A single Federal Reserve staffer, Irfan Murtuza, gave two contributions, totaling $3,000, to the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed. An economist at the New York Fed, Keshav Dogra, gave $1,750 to Claire Valdez’s congressional campaign and $1,750 to the campaign of Darializa Avila Chevalier. Another New York Fed staffer, Dolph Haas, gave $2,000 to the U.S. Senate campaign of Texas Democrat James Talarico.
Rachael L. Ross, who lists her employer as Columbia University, gave $245,000 to the Movement Voter PAC, a left-leaning political action committee that funnels money to affiliates of the far-left Working Families Party.
Irwin Redlener, a senior adviser at Columbia’s Climate School, gave $50,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, federal records show.
An associate professor of practice at Columbia Teachers College, Amra Sabic-El-Rayess, gave $10,000 to the El-Sayed campaign, according to the federal records.
A Harvard public health professor whose center was singled out by the university’s antisemitism task force as a hotbed of anti-Israel activism, Mary Bassett, gave $5,000 to El-Sayed’s campaign, the Federal Election Commission records show. Another Harvard affiliate, Farrah Ezzeddine, gave $3,500 to El-Sayed, the records show. Lander’s campaign got $3,500 from Antonio Weiss, a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School.
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QSBS Explained: The $15 Million Tax Break Most Founders Don’t Plan For
QSBS (qualified small business stock) is a federal tax break under Section 1202 that lets founders and early investors exclude up to $15 million of gain, or 10 times their basis if that is larger, when they sell stock in a qualifying C corporation. For shares acquired after July 4, 2025, you exclude 50% of the gain after three years, 75% after four and 100% after five. The catch is that most of the rules are decided years before the exit, on the day the stock is issued.
Here is a scene that plays out at a lot of exits. A founder sits at a signing table after six years of work. The acquirer’s lawyers slide over the purchase agreement, the wire numbers are in the deck, and somebody finally asks the question that should have been asked in year one: “Are your shares QSBS?”
Sometimes the answer is yes, and that one sentence is worth millions. Sometimes the answer is “we were an LLC for the first three years,” or “we never filed the 83(b),” or “we bought back a chunk of stock from my co-founder in 2023.” Same company, same exit, completely different tax bill.
QSBS is the biggest tax break most founders never plan for. Not because it is hidden. It sits right there in the tax code. It is ignored because the payoff is five years away and the paperwork happens on day one, when you are busy trying to get your first customer.
This guide is general information, not legal or tax advice. Section 1202 has traps that only a licensed tax attorney or CPA can check against your actual documents. My goal is to make sure you know enough to ask them the right questions early.
What QSBS Actually Is (And Why Congress Just Made It Bigger)
Section 1202 of the Internal Revenue Code has been around since 1993. It was designed to reward people who take the risk of backing small, growing companies. You can read the full text in 26 U.S.C. Section 1202, but here is the plain version.
If you hold qualifying stock long enough and then sell it, part or all of your gain can be excluded from federal income tax. Not deferred. Excluded. On a founder exit that can be the difference between paying roughly 23.8% federal tax on your gain and paying nothing.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, made three big changes for stock acquired after that date:
Bigger cap: the per-company exclusion rose from $10 million to $15 million per taxpayer (or 10 times basis, whichever is greater), with inflation adjustments starting after 2026.
Bigger companies qualify: the gross-asset ceiling rose from $50 million to $75 million.
Faster partial benefit: instead of an all-or-nothing five-year wait, you now get a tiered exclusion starting at three years.
Stock you acquired on or before July 4, 2025 generally stays under the old rules: the $10 million cap and a holding period of more than five years for the 100% exclusion. You cannot simply swap old shares for new ones to reset into the faster schedule.
The New 3, 4 and 5 Year QSBS Holding Periods
This is the part every founder should tape to the wall. For QSBS acquired after July 4, 2025:
Years held
Gain excluded
Approx. federal rate on total gain*
Less than 3 years
0%
Up to 23.8% (normal long-term rates)
At least 3 years
50%
About 15.9%
At least 4 years
75%
About 7.95%
5 years or more
100%
0% (up to the cap)
*Simplified. The non-excluded part of QSBS gain is taxed at a 28% rate plus the 3.8% net investment income tax where it applies. State tax is separate.
Run the numbers on a simple teaching example. Say you founded a C corp in January 2026, bought your founder shares for almost nothing and sell them for a $12 million gain. Ignoring state tax and assuming every test is met:
Sell after
Excluded
Rough federal tax
2.5 years (no QSBS)
$0
About $2.86 million
3 years
$6 million
About $1.9 million
4 years
$9 million
About $950,000
5 years
$12 million
$0
Look at that table and then think about every time someone told you to “just get the deal done.” Six months can be worth a million dollars. That does not mean you turn down a great offer to wait for a date on the calendar. It means you know exactly what the calendar is worth before you negotiate.
Who Qualifies: The QSBS Eligibility Checklist
Every one of these has to be true. Miss one and the whole benefit can disappear.
The company is a domestic C corporation. Not an S corp. Not a plain LLC taxed as a partnership. It must be a C corp when the stock is issued and during substantially all of the time you hold it.
You got the stock at original issue. Directly from the company, for cash, property or services. Shares you buy from another shareholder on a secondary sale generally do not qualify.
Gross assets were $75 million or less. At all times before and immediately after your shares were issued ($50 million for stock issued on or before July 4, 2025). This is measured mostly on cash and the tax basis of assets, not your valuation.
The company runs an active, qualified business. At least 80% of its assets must be used in a qualified trade or business during substantially all of your holding period.
It is not in an excluded field. Health, law, engineering, architecture, accounting, actuarial science, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services and brokerage are out, along with businesses whose main asset is the reputation or skill of their people. Banking, insurance, investing, farming, mining and oil extraction, hotels and restaurants are also excluded.
You are not a corporation. The exclusion is for individuals and certain trusts and pass-through owners, not corporate shareholders.
You held the shares long enough. Three, four or five years under the new tiers.
Software, SaaS, hardware, consumer products, e-commerce and a lot of AI companies usually land on the right side of that list. An agency selling your consulting hours usually does not, even if it is incorporated perfectly.
The Entity Decision You Make on Day One
This is where most founders lose QSBS without ever knowing they had a shot at it.
When you start a company, the default advice for a small, profitable, one-person business is often an LLC or an S corp. I have written about that choice in S corp vs LLC, and for a lot of service businesses that is the right call. Pass-through taxation, simple books, money in your pocket every year.
But if you are building something you plan to sell for eight or nine figures, the math flips. Only C corp stock can be QSBS. If you start as an LLC and convert to a C corp later, the QSBS clock generally starts at conversion, and the value you built before converting is not covered by the exclusion. Three years as an LLC can cost you three years of holding period and all the gain from those years.
Here is the honest trade-off. A C corp pays tax at the corporate level on profits, and dividends are taxed again when they hit you. If you never plan to sell, QSBS is worth nothing and that double tax is real. If you plan to raise venture money and exit, QSBS can be worth more than every annual tax saving combined. Pick the structure for the business you are actually building, and get a licensed advisor to pressure-test it before you file.
Five Ways Founders Accidentally Kill Their QSBS
I would rather you read this list now than hear it from a lawyer at the signing table.
Skipping the 83(b) election. If your founder shares vest over time, an 83(b) election filed within 30 days of the grant is usually what starts your holding period on day one instead of each vesting date.
Stock buybacks around a funding round. Buying back stock from you or a related person within two years before or after your shares are issued, or significant company-wide buybacks within one year before or after, can disqualify shares. Ask counsel before the company buys anyone out.
Sitting on too much cash or investments. If too much of the company sits in idle cash or stock of other companies for too long, the 80% active business test can fail.
Drifting into an excluded field. A product company that slowly becomes a consulting firm can lose its qualified status mid-holding period.
No paper trail. Keep your stock purchase agreements, board consents, cap table and gross-asset records from the date of issuance. Buyers and auditors will ask for them.
How the $15 Million Cap Really Works
The cap is per taxpayer, per company. You can exclude the greater of $15 million or 10 times your adjusted basis in the stock you sell that year. Most founders bought their shares for a fraction of a cent, so the $15 million figure is the one that matters.
Say your gain on an exit is $40 million and you have held five years. You exclude $15 million, and the other $25 million is taxed at normal long-term capital gains rates. Still a massive win.
Because the cap applies per taxpayer, some families work with estate planners on gifting shares to children or certain non-grantor trusts well before a sale, since QSBS status generally carries over on gifts. That is advanced planning with real rules around it. It is not a do-it-yourself project, and it has to happen long before a term sheet shows up.
There is also a rollover rule, Section 1045, that can let you defer gain if you sell QSBS you held for more than six months and reinvest in new QSBS within 60 days. Useful to know exists. Again, not something to improvise.
How QSBS Fits With Your Cap Table and Exit
QSBS is not just a founder benefit. Your early employees who exercise options and your seed investors may qualify too, which makes your stock more attractive to the right people. When you decide your founder equity split, you are also deciding who has their own $15 million cap on the same exit.
When you finally sell, the structure of the deal matters. A sale of stock is where Section 1202 does its work. An asset sale, where the buyer purchases the company’s assets instead of your shares, can leave you outside the exclusion. Your tax advisor and your M&A attorney should be talking before the letter of intent, not after.
On the tax return itself, the sale goes on Form 8949 and Schedule D, and the excluded amount is reported with code Q. The IRS Form 8949 instructions and IRS Publication 550 walk through the mechanics.
One more thing. Federal QSBS does not mean your state follows along. Some states, California being the best-known, do not conform to Section 1202. Where you live when you sell can change the final number.
What I Would Do If I Were Incorporating Today
Decide honestly whether you are building a lifestyle business or something you plan to sell. Only the second one needs QSBS.
If it is the second one, talk to a startup attorney about forming a Delaware or home-state C corp from the start.
Issue founder shares right away, pay for them with a real check, and file the 83(b) within 30 days if they vest.
Track gross assets every time you raise money, and keep records showing you were under the limit at each issuance.
Get your CPA to confirm the business is not in an excluded field, and recheck it when your model changes.
Avoid buybacks and big cash piles without asking counsel first.
Mark your three-, four- and five-year dates on the calendar, and bring them into every acquisition conversation.
The founders who walk away from an exit with the most money are not always the ones with the biggest exit. They are the ones who made a handful of boring decisions correctly in year one. QSBS is one of those decisions. Plan it on day one, and the signing table gets a lot more fun.
QSBS FAQs
What is QSBS in simple terms?
QSBS is qualified small business stock under Section 1202. If you hold original-issue stock in a qualifying C corporation long enough, you can exclude up to $15 million of gain, or 10 times your basis, from federal income tax when you sell.
How long do I need to hold QSBS?
For stock acquired after July 4, 2025, you exclude 50% of gain after three years, 75% after four years and 100% after five years. Stock acquired on or before July 4, 2025 generally needs more than five years for the full exclusion.
Does LLC or S corp stock qualify for QSBS?
No. Only stock issued by a domestic C corporation can qualify. An LLC taxed as a C corp may qualify, and converting later can work, but the holding period generally starts at conversion and earlier growth is not covered.
What is the $75 million gross assets test?
The company’s aggregate gross assets, mostly cash plus the tax basis of other assets, must be $75 million or less before and immediately after your shares are issued. For stock issued on or before July 4, 2025, the limit is $50 million.
Do states follow the QSBS exclusion?
Not all of them. Most states follow federal treatment, but some, with California the best-known example, do not conform to Section 1202. Check your state rules with a licensed CPA or tax attorney before you plan an exit.
This article is general information only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Section 1202 rules are complex and fact-specific, so speak with a licensed tax attorney or CPA about your situation.
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The R&D Tax Credit for Startups: How to Turn Your Payroll Into Cash Back
The R&D tax credit for startups lets a young company that is building new technology claim up to $500,000 a year against the employer share of its payroll taxes, even if it has zero revenue and pays no income tax. You qualify as a “qualified small business” if you had less than $5 million in gross receipts for the year and no gross receipts before the five-year period ending with that year. You elect it on IRS Form 6765, Section D, attached to a timely filed income tax return, then claim it quarter by quarter on Form 8974 with your Form 941.
Here’s a scene I’ve watched play out with founders more times than I can count. It’s the end of the quarter. The founder is staring at the payroll report: four engineers, one product lead, and a line for employer taxes that feels like a penalty for hiring people. No revenue yet. The runway spreadsheet is open in the next tab, and every dollar going to the government is a dollar not going into the product.
Then someone on their board asks a simple question: “Did you claim the R&D credit against payroll?” And the founder says what most first-time founders say: “I thought that was only for profitable companies.”
It isn’t. Congress built this election specifically for startups that have little or no income tax to offset. If you are paying engineers to solve hard technical problems, a slice of that payroll can come back to you as cash you never send to the IRS in the first place. Most founders leave it on the table simply because nobody told them.
This founder-focused walkthrough from Chris Peters at R&D Tax Advisors explains why pre-revenue companies are not “too early” to claim it:
What the R&D Tax Credit Actually Is
The research credit lives in Section 41 of the tax code. It rewards companies for spending money on qualified research: work that is technological in nature, aimed at a new or improved product or process, and done through a real process of experimentation to remove uncertainty. The IRS calls this the four-part test, and you apply it to each product, feature or process separately.
In plain English: if your team is writing code, designing hardware, formulating a product or engineering a process where the answer wasn’t known at the start, and you tested your way to it, you are probably doing qualified research. If you are doing routine data entry, cosmetic redesigns, market research or customer support, you are not.
The expenses that count, called qualified research expenses (QREs), are mostly three buckets:
Wages paid to people doing, directly supervising or directly supporting the research. For most startups this is 70% to 90% of the claim.
Supplies used up in the research, like prototype materials. Not general office stuff.
Contract research paid to U.S. contractors doing qualified work for you, generally counted at 65% of what you paid.
For a normal profitable company, the credit reduces income tax. The problem is that a pre-revenue startup has no income tax to reduce. That’s where the payroll election comes in.
Why Payroll Is the Startup Superpower
Since the PATH Act of 2015, a qualified small business can elect to use part of its research credit against the employer portion of Social Security tax instead of income tax. The Inflation Reduction Act raised that annual cap from $250,000 to $500,000 for tax years beginning after 2022. The credit first wipes out the employer’s 6.2% Social Security share, and anything left over then reduces the employer’s 1.45% Medicare share. Unused amounts roll into the next quarter.
Read that again from a founder’s seat. You don’t have to be profitable. You don’t have to wait years for income tax to show up. The money comes back by lowering a bill you already pay every single quarter.
To be a qualified small business for the payroll election, the IRS requires two things for the tax year (confirm the current rules in the IRS instructions for Form 6765):
Gross receipts of less than $5 million for the year.
No gross receipts in any tax year before the five-tax-year period ending with that year. In practice, your company’s first dollar of revenue starts a five-year clock.
You can make the payroll election for a maximum of five tax years. That’s why I tell founders to treat it like a launch-window benefit. It’s designed for the years when cash is tightest, and it disappears once you grow out of it.
A Simple Example With Real Numbers
Here’s a clearly labeled teaching example, not a promise. Picture a C corporation in its second year. It has five engineers earning $150,000 each, all working on a new machine-learning product, and no prior years with research spending to compare against.
Line
Amount
Engineering wages that qualify
$750,000
Credit rate (alternative simplified method, no prior-year QREs)
6%
Estimated research credit
$45,000
Employer Social Security tax on those wages (6.2%)
$46,500 a year
Result
Roughly a full year of employer Social Security tax offset
Once a company has qualified research spending in each of the three prior years, the alternative simplified method moves to 14% of current QREs above half the prior three-year average, and the credit usually grows. Add contractors and supplies and the number climbs again. For a seed-stage team with a dozen engineers, a six-figure annual credit is not unusual.
That’s not a rounding error. For a lot of seed-stage companies, that’s an extra month or two of runway, or the salary of the next hire.
How to Turn Your Payroll Into Cash Back: Step by Step
Here’s the sequence, in order. Miss the order and you can lose a full year.
Confirm you are a qualified small business. Under $5 million in gross receipts for the year, and no receipts older than the five-year window. A company with no revenue at all generally passes the receipts test.
Track research time while it happens. Tie each engineer’s hours to the projects they worked on. Tickets, sprint notes, commit history, test logs and design docs are your best evidence. Reconstructing it a year later is where weak claims are born.
Calculate the credit on Form 6765. Identify each business component, apply the four-part test, total your QREs and run the credit math.
Make the payroll election in Section D of Form 6765. Enter the amount you want to apply against payroll, up to $500,000.
File your income tax return on time. The election must be on a timely filed original return, including extensions. The IRS does not allow it on an amended return. Even if you owe nothing, you still file the return to make the election.
Attach Form 8974 to Form 941. Starting with the first calendar quarter that begins after you file your income tax return, your payroll provider reports the credit on Form 8974 and your employer tax drops.
Carry it forward until it’s used. If the credit is bigger than one quarter’s employer tax, the rest rolls to the next quarter.
One timing move founders miss: the credit starts the quarter after you file. A calendar-year company that files in February gets the offset starting April 1. File on extension in October and you wait until January. Same credit, two extra quarters of waiting. If cash matters, file early.
The IRS lays out the payroll mechanics on its page about the research credit against payroll tax for small businesses.
What Changed With Section 174A
For a few painful years, startups doing R&D got hit twice. From 2022 through 2024, the old Section 174 rules forced companies to capitalize research spending and deduct it over five years, which meant some cash-burning startups suddenly owed income tax on “profits” that didn’t exist.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act fixed that going forward. New Section 174A restores immediate expensing of domestic research and experimental expenditures for tax years beginning after December 31, 2024. Foreign research still gets amortized over 15 years, so where your engineers sit matters.
There was also a special catch-up for small businesses: they could elect to apply the new rules back to 2022 through 2024 by filing amended returns. That window closed on July 6, 2026, as the Taxpayer Advocate Service flagged. It has passed. If you didn’t file in time, don’t let anyone sell you a scheme to chase it. Focus on getting the current year right.
Your expensing choices under 174A and your credit interact, so make sure whoever prepares your return looks at both together. This is exactly the kind of decision that belongs on your list of year-end tax moves, not something to figure out the week the return is due.
Founder Salaries Count Too
Here’s one that surprises people. If you are the technical founder writing code or leading experiments, the W-2 wages you pay yourself for that work can count as qualified research wages. Profit distributions don’t. So the way you pay yourself as a business owner directly affects how big your credit can be.
That doesn’t mean you should inflate your salary to chase a credit. It means that if you are already taking a reasonable salary for real technical work, you should be documenting that time like you document your engineers’.
Should You DIY It or Hire a Firm?
You can prepare this yourself or with your regular CPA. Many startups hire a specialist R&D credit firm. Either can work. What matters is the quality of the claim, because the IRS has been scrutinizing research credits closely and the redesigned Form 6765 now asks for more detail about each business component.
Good signs in a provider:
They interview your engineers and look at real project records before quoting a number.
They give you a documentation package you’d be comfortable handing to an examiner.
They explain how the claim coordinates with your Section 174A treatment and your return.
Their fee is clear up front, whether flat or a percentage of the credit.
Red flags:
They promise a credit amount before seeing anything.
They treat every employee and every expense as qualified.
They pitch you on amending old years to chase windows that have already closed.
My rule is simple: if a firm can’t explain your claim to you in plain English, they won’t be able to explain it to the IRS either.
The Mistakes That Cost Startups the Most
Missing the election. No election on the original timely return means no payroll offset for that year. Amending won’t save it.
Filing late or on a long extension and pushing the cash back by quarters.
No contemporaneous records. A claim built from memory is a claim built on sand.
Burning the five-year clock. Your first gross receipts start it. Know which years you can still use.
Counting the wrong work. Sales, marketing, general admin and post-launch bug fixing usually don’t qualify.
The founders who win with this credit aren’t tax experts. They just build the habit early: track the work, file on time, make the election, and let payroll do the rest. Every dollar you keep is a dollar that goes back into the thing you’re actually building.
R&D Tax Credit for Startups FAQs
Can a pre-revenue startup claim the R&D tax credit?
Yes. A qualified small business with no income tax can elect to apply up to $500,000 of its research credit against the employer share of payroll taxes each year, so a startup with zero revenue can still get real cash value from it.
What is the R&D payroll tax offset limit?
The annual cap is $500,000 for tax years beginning after 2022. The credit first reduces the employer’s 6.2% Social Security tax, then the 1.45% Medicare tax, and any unused amount carries forward to later quarters.
Who qualifies as a qualified small business for the payroll election?
A company with less than $5 million in gross receipts for the tax year and no gross receipts in any year before the five-year period ending with that year. The election can be used for up to five tax years.
Which forms do I need to claim the payroll offset?
Make the election in Section D of Form 6765 and attach it to your timely filed income tax return. Then attach Form 8974 to your Form 941, starting with the first quarter that begins after you file the return.
Can I make the payroll election on an amended return?
No. The payroll election must be made on a timely filed original income tax return, including extensions. If you miss it, you lose the payroll offset for that year, though the credit itself may still carry forward against income tax.
The post The R&D Tax Credit for Startups: How to Turn Your Payroll Into Cash Back appeared first on Addicted 2 Success.
Tech/Crypto Tank As Dem Midterms Sweep Odds Soar: Watch Election Night Results Live Here
Tech/Crypto Tank As Dem Midterms Sweep Odds Soar: Watch Election Night Results Live Here
And so it begins…2010ET: Senate: 41D – 31R ~~ House: 25D – 13R ~~ Governor: 10D – 8RAs a reminder, President Trump posted on his TruthSocial this morning that “I think Midterm results will be better than you think.”We shall see…The market does not like the way this is going……as Dem Gina Hinojosa takes an early lead against Greg Abbot in the Texas Governor race…As a reminder, a Democratic sweep could intensify scrutiny of data-center spending, power costs, and AI regulation – the key risk is that the election becomes another catalyst for de-risking an already crowded theme…But remember, it’s still early as the drama of election night in the US plays out across 50 states and six time zones, with poll closings cascading across the country from east to west and literally hundreds of Senate, Congress, and Governors to watch. To keep it simple, we are going to update each of the broad categories below with major wins/losses.Each state sets its own polling hours, and sixteen states have different closing times depending on which time zone the polling place is in. The first to close are Kentucky and Indiana, where the portions in the Eastern time zone close at 6 p.m. New York time. The final closing is seven hours later in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, where a single precinct stays open until 1 a.m. New York time.Several counties reported voting system problems, among other issues, during today’s voting…Westchester County, NY: Countywide scanner problem (ballots not going through). Ballots put in emergency bags for later scanning. Officials (including AG Letitia James) said votes would still count and urged people to vote.Broward County, FL: Brief technical delays (10–15 minutes) at some sites; a couple of polling locations moved due to flooding.Fulton County, GA: Two scanners failed during early voting (affecting ~1,069 ballots); officials planned to rescan them properly. Officials in the affected areas largely reassured voters that ballots would be secured and counted.Watch results live here:Results:Prediction Pulse</body>HouseSenateDem Wins: MARK WARNER WINS THE VIRGINIA US SENATE GENERAL ELECTION, DDHQ PROJECTSJON OSSOFF WINS GEORGIA SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTSBOOKER WINS NEW JERSEY SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTSSHAPIRO WINS PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR RACE, AP PROJECTSPAPPAS WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTSPRITZKER WINS ILLINOIS GOVERNOR RACE, AP PROJECTSRep Wins:MOODY WINS FLORIDA SENATE RACE, DDHQ PROJECTSAs we detailed earlier, the House is done. Or at least the market thinks so.Going into tonight, Polymarket traders give Democrats a 96% chance of taking the House and 74% for the Senate, the highest Democratic Senate odds since the market opened, and as of 7:17am ET this morning the Democratic sweep contract was trading at 77%. Which is why Goldman, in its “Midterms Preview” email this morning (available to pro subs), says the only part of tonight that can really surprise anyone is the upper chamber:A Democratic House looks largely priced, with the Senate representing the main source of election related surprise. With sentiment, positioning and leverage already significantly lower following recent derisking, the bigger question for markets may be whether the election acts as a clearing event and supports a broader rerisking in equities.In other words, everyone is watching the House count, and the money is riding on the Senate. Regular readers know we’ve been tracking the blue-wave odds since they were a coin flip, from our warning back in May that electric bills could be the 2026 election shocker to JPMorgan’s “Democrat Factor” soaring 20% as Wall Street priced a sweep. Below is everything you need for tonight: the math, the clock, the polling trap and what each outcome means for markets.The Math: Four Seats, Seven Coin FlipsRepublicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four; a gain of three produces a 50-50 chamber, which stays Republican thanks to JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. That means Democrats have to hold Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, and then flip four of the GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska and South Carolina.Cook Political Report rates seven races as pure toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas, with Georgia and North Carolina leaning Democratic. The final New York Times/Siena polls had Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, holding an edge in Alaska and effectively tied in Iowa, which on paper is a comfortable majority.Here is how that looks in Goldman’s chart of polling margins against market-implied odds, from the bank’s chief US political economist Alec Phillips (chart source GS GIR, Kalshi):Three things jump out. Democrats lead in every Republican-held race to the left of the line, but outside of North Carolina, none of those leads is bigger than about 3 points. Maine, Kansas and Iowa sit right on top of the tie line. And the market is giving Democrats more credit in Texas and Alaska than their polling margins alone would justify.Which brings us to the problem.Why The Polls May Be Flattering Democrats (Again)Goldman’s Phillips and Abhay Duggirala have been waving this flag for weeks. In Republican-leaning states, GOP Senate candidates have beaten their final polling margins by an average of 3 points since 2002, and in competitive races over that stretch, candidates leading by 2.5 points or less won only 60% of the time. Among Republican-held seats, Democrats currently lead by more than that 3-point cushion only in North Carolina.The desk’s translation this morning:The Senate remains much closer, however, with recent election cycles showing polling errors have tended to underestimate Republican performance in Republican leaning states. As a result, the larger market reaction may come from a divided Congress outcome, which appears less fully reflected in current pricing.The polls aren’t the only problem. As we noted last month, Phillips found that in the five previous midterms going back to 2002, prediction markets “have tended to overstate the challenging party’s sweep odds at this point in the cycle.” Apply the historical fade to today’s 75% and a sweep is still the favorite, just by a lot less than the Kalshi billboards in New York suggests.Put differently, the House is a lock, the Senate is (roughly) a 60/40 dressed up as a 75/25. Which makes the order in which the states report tonight unusually important.The Clock: What Closes When (All Times ET)Polls close in waves from 6pm to 1am Eastern. Here is where each key Senate race sits on the clock, against the latest odds:6:00pm – Indiana, Kentucky (most of each). No marquee statewide races, but Decision Desk HQ flags Hamilton County, IN (Victoria Spartz’s IN-5, which Trump won 52-46) as an early read on suburban swing.7:00pm – Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, most of Florida and New Hampshire. Democrats are clearly favored to hold Georgia and New Hampshire. The sleeper is South Carolina, where appointed Sen. Darline Graham is only a slight favorite over Democrat Annie Andrews (Kalshi: 67/33), and who joked she’ll “choke Lindsey” in heaven for leaving her in a tied race. Florida counts fastest of any state; watch Osceola County for the Latino swing. VA-2 is a must-win House seat for Democrats.7:30pm – North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia. Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley in NC is Democrats’ likeliest flip (Cabarrus County near 50-50 means a good night for Cooper). Ohio is the first real toss-up of the night: Sherrod Brown vs. appointed Sen. Jon Husted (Brown 71% on Kalshi), plus the Ramaswamy vs. Acton governor’s race. If Brown wins, the Senate path opens; if he loses early, the 75% sweep odds will not survive the hour.8:00pm – Maine, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, rest of Florida and New Hampshire, most of Texas, Kansas and Michigan. Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson in Maine (Jackson 73%), but Maine is about the slowest-counting state in the country and may need a ranked-choice runoff (more below). House battlegrounds in PA (including Fitzpatrick’s PA-1) and NJ-7. In Texas, keep an eye on Collin County: a 50-50 or bluer result is “probably a necessary condition” for a Democrat to carry the state, per DDHQ.9:00pm – The big hour: Texas, Michigan, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska finish; New York, Minnesota, Arizona and Wisconsin close. Talarico vs. Paxton (Talarico 74%, the most traded race of the cycle), El-Sayed vs. Rogers in Michigan (El-Sayed ~78%, recovering after Democrat Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on Sunday), Hamilton vs. Marshall in Kansas (Hamilton 63%, up 22 points in a week), Turek vs. Hinson in Iowa (52/48, the true coin flip), and independent Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Dubuque County, IA is the tell for white working-class voters. By roughly 10pm, we should know whether Democrats have a real path.10:00pm – Nevada, Montana, Utah. Gov. Joe Lombardo vs. Aaron Ford is a toss-up; MT-1 is an open toss-up House seat.11:00pm – California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho. Democrats are favored to flip all five GOP-held California seats they targeted in redistricting, but California counts mail ballots received through Nov. 10, so don’t expect final House numbers for days.Midnight/1:00am – Hawaii and Alaska. Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola (and the other Dan Sullivan). The last poll closes in the Aleutians at 1am. The counting may take a lot longer.Don’t Hold Your Breath: Maine, Alaska And The LawyersGoldman’s FX strategist Stuart Jenkins, in the bank’s GS Morning note (available to pro subs), sums up the timing problem:We should get a sense of the degree of the polling error pretty early on, but it can take days or even weeks, especially on the Senate, to get an official result.Two of the seats Democrats need are the likeliest to drag:Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal races, municipalities have two days to report official counts, and per Secretary of State Shenna Bellows the state has historically known the ranked-choice outcome the week after the election. A runoff has to be certified by Dec. 18.Alaska accepts ballots mailed from outside the US for 15 days after Election Day, and close races there have a long history of taking all 15. On top of that, the DOJ has sued to block certification if Peltola wins while “decoy” candidate Daniel J. Sullivan remains on the ballot, and as Jonathan Turley wrote in “Alaska’s Decoy Scandal Brings Back The Usual Suspects”, “this scandal will not end on Tuesday.”So if the Senate comes down to 50 seats plus Alaska, Wall Street could be trading a binary outcome against a federal lawsuit into Thanksgiving. Nothing says “clearing event” like a recount in the Kenai Peninsula.Meanwhile Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky has a simpler cheat sheet:The clearing of the political event should be important. The S&P has been higher in the 12 months following all 19 midterms since 1950 … no guarantees but gridlock has generally been seen as supportive for equities, although AI and data center restrictions remain an important risk to watch… The first hurdle is avoiding an extreme midterm outcome … Texas will be important to watch.Texas matters twice: the Senate seat, and a governor’s race where, as we detailed earlier today in “These Are The States Where Tuesday’s Midterms Can Pull The Plug On Data Centers”, Democrat Gina Hinojosa wants an emergency moratorium on a 474 GW interconnection queue.What Markets Are Pricing: Gridlock Good, Sweep… Less SoThe consensus playbook, laid out in “Wall Street’s Midterm Cheat Sheet” yesterday, comes from JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk: a 66% Blue Wave sees the S&P anywhere from down 25bp to up 50bp, a 26% split Congress sends it up 0.5% to 1%, and a 7% Red Wave gets +1% to +1.25%. Translation: the likeliest outcome is the worst one for stocks, though nobody expects a crash on the night. Not everyone is that relaxed: BofA’s Michael Hartnett, as we noted last month, sees a Democratic sweep as “big risk-off”, with stocks skidding more than 10%, and we tweeted his sweep-odds chart on Sunday.JPMorgan’s Midterm scenario cheat sheet https://t.co/MLOhixqsnX pic.twitter.com/RzigN4PX2x— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2026
The bond view is more muted. Mizuho’s Evelyne Gomez-Liechti estimates a sweep adds about 2bps to 10-year yields (4.91% this morning) while a split Congress takes off about 3bps, but warns against “chasing” the gridlock-means-austerity narrative:Trump’s willingness to make deals could still see higher defense spending alongside some dilution of planned Medicaid cuts, leaving the underlying fiscal trajectory little changed.Rate-insensitive maybe… but not stupid. Goldman agrees on tariffs at least: any Democratic rollbacks on Canada would be more than offset by new White House tariffs, for a net ~2ppt increase in the effective tariff rate after the election. And the first real fight is the Dec. 11 funding deadline, not AI.For those who want to trade it, Goldman’s baskets team’s top sweep idea, which we laid out on Sunday, is long ACA beneficiaries (GSHLCACA), which has tracked the Kalshi sweep odds almost tick-for-tick since summer… until the last two weeks, when the basket rolled over even as the odds kept climbing (chart source Bloomberg, GS):Either the basket knows something the prediction markets don’t, or it’s a cheap entry. Our money is on the former.As for the longer view, JPM is as bullish as ever:JPM is bullish on midterms: “SPX has been up a year after every midterm election since 1950 with an average gain of around 15%. The worst one-year forward return came after the 1986 midterms but this, of course, had more to do with the 1987 crash rather than anything going on in…— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2026The Night Turns On Texas At 9pm… Or Maybe On Alaska In Two WeeksGoldman’s desk puts the real question for markets simply: whether tonight “acts as a clearing event and supports a broader rerisking in equities.” With sentiment, positioning and leverage already washed out after last week’s tech rout, it might, if the result is clean.We’re not so sure it will be. The House is a lock. But the Senate majority runs through four GOP-held states where Democrats lead by less than the 3 points Republicans have historically gained on their final polls, two states that count for days or weeks, and one that comes with its own federal lawsuit. So our take: the Democratic sweep is still the most likely single outcome, but the 75% price tag is too rich, and the likeliest surprise is a 50-50 or 51-49 Senate that nobody can call until Alaska finishes counting. The prediction markets have long since made up their minds:Prediction markets have seen enough— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2026Then again, prediction markets were also pretty sure about the last red wave. We’ll be updating this post through the night; first stop, Ohio at 7:30pm.Much more in Goldman’s “Midterms Preview” as well as Alec Phillips’ midterm preview, all available to pro subs.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/03/2026 – 20:05
New Jersey Governor Bans “Illegal Russian Fuel” Inbound To Ports
New Jersey Governor Bans “Illegal Russian Fuel” Inbound To Ports
New Jersey Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill warned port and terminal operators in the state against “purchasing or unloading the illegal Russian fuel currently bound for the east coast of the United States.” Sherrill’s move threatens to complicate President Trump’s efforts to bring Russian diesel into US markets to ease high industrial fuel prices amid a severe global refining squeeze fueled by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.In a Monday letter, Sherrill urged operators to turn away tankers carrying Russian diesel and said the state would use its legal and regulatory powers to prevent the shipments from entering through New Jersey.Sherrill said, “Russia has since dispatched multiple diesel oil tankers to the United States, including at least one that may be headed for the New Jersey coast.””The Russian Oil Act does not grant the President or Treasury Department blanket authority to waive these sanctions through licenses,” the governor added.She concluded, “Any effort to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with harsh penalties.”Related:First Russian Diesel Tanker To Sail For US Under Trump-Moscow Fuel DealIn early October, President Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to allow Russian diesel imports to flow into the US. AAA prices as of Tuesday morning show diesel prices at the pump averaging around $6.29 per gallon nationwide, down from $6.50 just weeks ago.Brian Mandell, executive vice president of marketing and commercial at Phillips 66, recently told analysts on an earnings call, “We don’t think Russia has enough distillate to make much of a difference, to be quite frank,” adding, “That’s a drop in the bucket compared to how much distillate is offline.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/03/2026 – 20:05