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Netflix (NFLX) reportedly wanted seven years of exclusive film and TV rights to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox game library, which includes popular titles such as Halo and Gears of War.

The streaming company is said to have offered a deal worth half a billion dollars. But Microsoft wanted much more.

According to Matthew Belloni’s report in Puck News, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma asked for $800 million instead, Gadgets Now noted. Then Netflix said no and pulled its offer entirely after an executive change.

How the Netflix-Xbox talks collapsed

The original $500 million offer came from Bela Bajaria, Netflix’s former chief content officer. Sharma and her team countered with an $800 million ask, which Netflix CFO Spencer Neumann rejected because it was too expensive, Puck reported. However, the deal was still on the table at the time.  

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Then a Netflix restructuring in mid-October brought about 1,000 job cuts and the exit of Bajaria after a decade with the company. After Bajaria left, former Disney executive Peter Rice stepped in as her replacement, Netflix announced.

It was only after the replacement that the Xbox offer came off the table.

Netflix walked away from an $800 million Xbox licensing deal, Puck News reported.ESOlex / Getty Images

Why Xbox felt confident asking for $800 million

Xbox had its reason for asking for a higher amount. Amazon’s “Fallout” show and HBO’s “The Last of Us” both proved that a hit TV adaptation can improve game sales and bring old titles back to life.

And with the 2023 purchase of Activision Blizzard, Microsoft owns the biggest game catalog outside of China.

On Oct. 8, 2026, Microsoft also launched a new division called Xbox XP, led by former Mojang president Kayleen Walters, Xbox confirmed. The group was formed to handle film, TV, merchandise, live events, and brand partnerships.

“Our franchises can mean more to people than the time they spend playing them,” Sharma said in a staff message, as Morningstar reported. 

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Now, instead of entering an encompassing exclusive deal with just one company, Xbox is pursuing multiple smaller deals. For example, Amazon gets “Fallout” Season 3, Paramount Pictures gets a “Call of Duty” movie, and Netflix still gets “Gears of War” and “Diablo.”

What the walk-away signals for Netflix shareholders

Netflix investors have been worried about the company spending too much, and the stock’s third-quarter results suggest their worries are valid.

In Q3, Netflix’s revenue grew 12% year over year to $12.9 billion, which sounds fine at first glance, but the company also lowered the forecast for its 2026 advertising revenue from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, an SEC filing confirmed.

A lower ad revenue forecast means Netflix expects less money to come in, which is why investors are paying attention to its spending.

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Wall Street was already losing patience before that report. Back in July, Barclays analysts said Netflix was “losing narrative control,” meaning investors no longer trusted its growth story, Stocktwits reported. When investors begin to lose trust in a stock, the company’s management usually has to prove it can be careful with cash. 

Netflix rejecting Xbox’s counter can be seen as a sign that the company’s new leadership is doing exactly that. 

The risk Netflix takes by passing on Xbox IP

If gaming adaptations keep producing hits, Netflix could watch competitors build loyal fan bases that might have helped to improve its own number of subscribers. 

Microsoft said Netflix remains a “valued partner,” so the other projects they’re working on together, like the Minecraft and Diablo shows, are still on track. 

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Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue surged more than sixfold to $173 million in the third quarter, exceeding its cryptocurrency trading revenue as cryptocurrency sales fell 55% from a year earlier.

The online brokerage lets customers trade stocks, options, cryptocurrencies, and event contracts. These contracts allow traders to take positions on the outcomes of events ranging from sports games to economic reports and elections.

Robinhood’s third-quarter results showed that cryptocurrency trading revenue fell to $120 million, even as growth in options and prediction markets helped lift total revenue 12% to a record $1.42 billion. 

The company’s net income declined 14% to $476 million, and diluted earnings per share fell to $0.51 from $0.61 a year earlier. The results included a $67 million unrealized investment loss, primarily related to Robinhood Ventures Fund I.

Robinhood (HOOD) shares fell about 3.58% to $91.18 in afternoon trading on Oct. 28 following the earnings report.

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Prediction markets grow as Robinhood expands beyond sports

Robinhood customers traded a record 16.4 billion event contracts in the third quarter, up from 13.6 billion in the previous quarter, according to the company’s earnings presentation.

Revenue from event contracts rose to $173 million from $156 million over the same period. The business had already generated more revenue than crypto trading in the second quarter.

Trading volume increased about 21% from the previous quarter, compared with an 11% increase in revenue. 

The revenue number also included $28 million from Rothera, a separately operated prediction-market exchange established through Robinhood’s joint venture with trading firm Susquehanna International Group.

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Robinhood is expanding beyond the sports contracts that have driven much of the prediction-market industry’s activity.

During the company’s Oct. 27 earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said non-sports contracts accounted for roughly 30% of prediction-market activity, up from about 15% in the previous quarter.

Robinhood has been adding contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, commodities, and other financial events. It is also preparing products that would let customers trade on whether companies report earnings above or below specified levels.

Unlike a stock, which represents ownership in a company, an event contract’s payout depends on the outcome of a specific question.

CEO Vlad Tenev told investors that Robinhood sees an opportunity in financial-event contracts, where it can draw on its existing brokerage business. He also expects competition in sports contracts to increase as more platforms enter the market.

Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue is growing.Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Midterms could bring new traders, but keeping them is the test

Robinhood launched a dedicated U.S. Midterms Hub in September, giving customers access to event contracts tied to congressional control and other election outcomes ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Interest in election-related trading has increased across the industry. 

More than $220 million had been wagered on 2026 congressional election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms through September, according to Reuters, citing research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

Trevor Traina, founder and CEO of digital-asset company Kresus Labs and a former U.S. ambassador to Austria, believes major elections can introduce new users to prediction markets.

“I see them now as onboarding catalysts to bring more people onto the platforms,” Traina said in written comments provided to TheStreet.

Traina expects some of that interest to continue after elections. But Robinhood has not disclosed retention figures showing how many customers first attracted by major events remain active afterward.

The industry also faces regulatory uncertainty. 

State authorities and prediction-market operators have been fighting over whether sports-related event contracts fall under state gambling laws or federal derivatives regulation, according to Reuters.

Robinhood is developing contracts tied to recurring financial events, including corporate earnings, that could give customers reasons to trade throughout the year.

After the Nov. 3 elections, the company will have another opportunity to see whether trading activity extends beyond major sporting and political events as its financial-contract offerings expand.

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Imagine looking at your portfolio after a year when two popular technology stocks have run circles around the S&P 500.

Seagate (STX), best known for hard drives, has gained nearly 142% year to date. Micron (MU), which has blown up due to its AI memory chips, has seen its shares skyrocket by about 240%. Both profited from the tremendous amount of data needed to power AI.

But the celebration has become a lot more complicated.

Seagate has tanked by over 26% in the past month, while Micron has slid roughly 10% as investors question whether the memory and storage boom can continue to deliver extraordinary profits.

Bank of America sees a strong opportunity in the uncertainty.

In an October 28 report shared with me, the bank reiterated its price target for Seagate stock, implying around 80% upside from its most recent closing price. Meanwhile, Micron trades at a much more attractive price-to-earnings multiple based on next year’s projected earnings.

Bank of America sees Seagate rising despite Micron’s lower projected earnings multiple.Bloomberg / Getty Images

Bank of America sees 80% upside for Seagate despite stock selloff

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan (a 5-star analyst rated by Tipranks) sees a massive buying opportunity in a memory stock that investors have been punishing of late.

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In his October 28 report, shared with me, Mohan reaffirmed a Buy rating on Seagate Technology and set a $1,200 price target, implying nearly 80% upside from the October 27 close, following another earnings stunner.

Seagate’s fiscal Q1 sales surged 61% to $4.23 billion. At the same time, adjusted earnings climbed to $7.68 a share from $2.61 a year earlier, while free cash flow reached a record $1.5 billion.

However, those results didn’t move the needle for the stock. Investors were spooked by the company shipping 220 exabytes of hard-drive capacity, including 198 exabytes of nearline storage used by large data centers, a figure that was less than expected and raises concerns that what has seemed a relentless AI storage boom could potentially be losing momentum.

Mohan sees a different explanation.

Seagate is transitioning to higher-capacity drives using heat-assisted magnetic recording, or HAMR, temporarily disrupting shipments. Management expects volumes to improve in the December quarter. More telling, BofA says nearline production is largely allocated into 2028, while customer visibility stretches beyond 2030.

With storage demand outpacing available supply, Seagate has room to raise prices.

Overall, Mohan forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue of $19.3 billion, up 58%, and adjusted earnings of $37.42 per share, up roughly 140%. He also expects free cash flow to more than double to $6.84 billion.

Moreover, Mohan projects gross margins rising from 46.1% in fiscal 2026 to 61.4% in 2027, despite elevated input costs.

Those are impressive estimates, but for investors, Micron stock has been the more popular trade, and compared with Seagate, its stock looks remarkably cheap on next year’s earnings.

Why Micron stock looks cheaper despite its massive AI rally

Seagate’s projected growth is hard to miss, but Micron offers investors a different way to profit from the same AI boom, and its pricing setup raises an interesting question.

As of October 27, Seagate trades at approximately 17.8 times Bank of America’s projected fiscal 2027 earnings. On the flip side, Micron is trading at just 5.3 times Wall Street’s consensus earnings estimate for fiscal 2027, underscoring a substantial valuation gap.

To be clear, BofA is bullish on both companies. Analyst Vivek Arya (another 5-star rated analyst), in a note shared with me, recently reaffirmed his Buy rating and $1,550 price target for Micron, implying 67% upside compared with nearly 80% for Seagate.

That said, part of the answer to why Micron’s cheaper lies in how expensive it is to run its business.

Micron spent approximately $27.37 billion on capital investments in fiscal 2026, equivalent to 20.6% of revenue. Seagate’s corresponding figure was just $569 million, or 4.7%.

Building advanced memory chips requires enormous investments in manufacturing equipment. Seagate, meanwhile, can benefit from higher hard-drive prices and capacity improvements without the same capital intensity.

That helps explain BofA’s expectation that Seagate’s free cash flow could more than double in fiscal 2027. But Micron’s lower earnings multiple is likely to reflect investors’ concerns that the current unusually strong memory cycle won’t last once additional manufacturing capacity arrives.

A cheap-looking stock isn’t necessarily undervalued if its earnings are near a cyclical peak.

Seagate has greater upside to BofA’s target, while Micron trades at a lower projected earnings multiple. The deciding factor may be which company’s profits hold up better when AI spending eventually slows.

What Seagate and Micron investors should watch in 2027

The next year will test whether investors are witnessing a lasting change in storage economics or another boom that fades when supply catches up.

For Seagate, the evidence will come from shipments. Its transition to higher-capacity HAMR drives needs to lift exabytes sold, while contracted orders through 2028 must become revenue without sacrificing the stronger pricing and gross margins BofA expects.

Micron faces a different test. Strong DRAM and high-bandwidth memory prices must withstand new industry capacity, while cash flow must justify the billions spent on factory expansions.

There’s also a hidden assumption behind Seagate’s $1,200 target.

BofA applies a 16x multiple to its projected calendar 2028 earnings of $75.07 per share. That’s twice Seagate’s historical median multiple of eight times. At that older valuation, the same earnings would support a share price near $601, not $1,200. 

That helps frame the choice. Seagate offers relatively capital-light storage growth; Micron offers high-performance memory exposure at a lower forward multiple. For both, the question isn’t how cheap shares look against booming earnings. It’s how much of those earnings will endure.

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For employees who have grown accustomed to working from home or following a hybrid schedule, returning to the office five days a week can mean major changes to their daily routines.

And for thousands of workers at the newly merged entertainment giant Skydance, the change will come sooner than expected. The company, formed after Paramount completed its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery earlier this month, is adopting a mandatory five-day in-office policy across its operations.

Skydance is also offering eligible employees voluntary buyouts, giving some workers who do not want to make the transition an opportunity to leave with severance.

The changes were outlined in an internal email from Skydance CEO David Ellison and co-CEO Ynon Kreiz on Oct. 26, first shared on X by journalist Scott Nover.

The move comes as Skydance begins integrating thousands of employees across Paramount, Warner Bros., HBO, CNN, CBS, and other businesses while pursuing billions of dollars in cost savings.

Skydance adopts strict 5-day office policy

The new policy expands a requirement already introduced at Paramount to the broader Skydance workforce.

Paramount employees assigned to offices were previously required to work in person five days a week, while Warner Bros. Discovery employees generally followed a three-day office schedule.

In their memo, Ellison and Kreiz defended the policy, arguing that employees working together in person strengthens collaboration, creativity, and the company’s culture.

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“We believe in-person collaboration is vital to our culture and to the success of our business,” the executives wrote.

They acknowledged that the change could disrupt employees’ established routines.

Skydance plans to implement the requirement in phases by location, rather than setting a single companywide start date. Employees will receive advance notice and support from managers during the transition, according to the memo.

The company has not publicly provided a detailed implementation schedule or clarified whether exceptions will be available.

What Skydance employees can expect from the buyout offer

In addition to the office mandate, Skydance is introducing a one-time voluntary buyout program for qualifying employees.

Eligible workers will receive individual communications outlining their severance terms and the deadline for making a decision.

According to an Oct. 26 Business Insider report, which reviewed a separate HR email, the standard package offers two weeks of severance pay for every year of employment at Paramount or Warner Bros. Discovery.

Some employees may receive different packages, depending on their circumstances. Workers who receive an offer must decide whether to accept it by Nov. 8, 2026, at 11 p.m. EST.

The HR communication described the program as voluntary and said that no additional buyout offers are planned. Employees who do not respond by the deadline will be considered to have declined the offer.

Skydance has not disclosed how many employees qualify for the program or how many departures it expects.

Skydance previously saw 600 workers accept buyouts

This is not the first time Skydance has paired stricter attendance requirements with an employee exit program.

Following the 2025 Paramount-Skydance merger, the company announced a phased return-to-office policy beginning in January 2026.

Employees in New York and Los Angeles at the vice-president level and below were offered voluntary severance if they were unwilling or unable to return to full-time work.

Approximately 600 employees accepted the offer, according to Paramount’s November 2025 SEC-filed shareholder letter.

The company separately eliminated approximately 1,000 positions in October 2025 as part of its restructuring.

Now, after acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery on Oct. 6, Skydance faces another round of workforce integration. In its official merger announcement, the company outlined a goal of generating at least $6 billion in annual run-rate savings within three years.

Executives have said much of the savings will come from areas outside labor, including technology, procurement and real estate, although additional layoffs are also expected.

The merger is already bringing changes for customers. As I previously reported, the combined company plans to eventually bring HBO Max and Paramount+ together as part of its streaming strategy.

Now with the November deadline approaching, Skydance’s latest policy could lead to another wave of employee departures before full workforce integration is complete.

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